Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability PDF Download

Author: Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451979991
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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Book Description
The trade-off between interest rate variability and the width of an exchange rate target zone is examined, using the regulated Brownian motion model of target zones. The interest rate differential’s asymptotic (unconditional) variability is increasing in the exchange rate band for narrow bands; whereas it is slowly decreasing for wide bands. The interest rate differential’s instantaneous (conditional) variability is decreasing in the exchange rate band. The model is extended to include a realignment/devaluation risk, as well as an endogenous exchange rate risk premium. The risk premium is small for reasonable parameter values.

Author: Alejandro M. Werner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451853769
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 20

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Book Description
This paper studies the Mexican and Israeli experience with a target zone. The first part of the paper develops a model of exchange rate determination under a target zone regime with stochastic realignments, and examines the conditions under which the adoption of the target zone, instead of a fixed exchange rate, reduces the volatility of the interest rate differential. We conclude that if the variance of the expected realignment is sufficiently large, then the target zone will be useful. The second part of the paper is an empirical study that shows that the target zone regime helped reduce interest rate variability in Israel and Mexico by absorbing part of the shocks to the expected realignment with movements of the exchange rate inside the band.

Author: Matthias Rau-Göhring
Publisher: diplom.de
ISBN: 3832467351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68

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Book Description
Inhaltsangabe:Zusammenfassung: Währungskrisen, wie die des Europäischen Währungssystems (EWS) 1992, können noch immer nur unzureichend vorausgesagt werden. Es wird jedoch anerkannt, dass die Glaubwürdigkeit eines jeden Währungssystems ausschließlich endogen bestimmt wird, d.h. durch Interaktion der einzelnen Akteure an den Wechselkursmärkten. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, ob ein bestimmtes Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß, eingeführt von Avesani, Gallo und Salmon (1995), geeignet ist, die große EWS Krise 1992 vorauszusagen. Dabei handelt es sich um ein dynamisches Spiel, in dem die beiden Akteure (Zentralbank und Finanzmarkt) miteinander interagieren und damit die Glaubwürdigkeit des Systems aushandeln . Es wird gezeigt, dass o.g. Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß ein geeigneter Indikator für Währungskrisen darstellt, was empirisch anhand des französischen Francs, der italienischen Lira und des niederländischen Guldens nachgewiesen wird. Introduction: The objective of the present study is to present the literature of exchange rate target zones and to explore empirically the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon credibility measure for selected currencies belonging to the Exchange-Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). In the past decade the empirical literature on real world target zones mushroomed considerably, but still, its overall significance in explaining strains in the relevant foreign exchange markets remains relatively low. In this context, I will explore whether the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon (1995) credibility measure demonstrates more power than earlier studies in the analysis of the 1992/3 EMS crisis. It is not my intention to pursue a normative analysis whether flexible or fixed exchange rates or intermediate regimes are superior to one another in terms of their economic implications. This question is beyond the scope of my analysis.1 Given that target zones are applied frequently in the real world, I purely want to figure out, whether their application is sensible on grounds of a firm commitment of the policy-makers. Exchange rate bands have been discussed widely after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System in 1973. Although experiences with the fixed exchange rate regime were disappointing in the 1960s, increased volatility and/or overshooting of the exchange rates in the 1970s let economists doubt the famous argument by Friedman (1953) that speculation would stabilize exchange rate movements in the floating system. McKinnon (1976) reckoned that [...]

Author: Lars E. O. Svensson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Brownian motion processes
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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Book Description
The term structure of interest rate differentials is derived in a model of a small open economy with a target zone exchange rate regime. The target zone is modeled as a regulated Brownian motion. The interest rate differentials are computed as the solution to a parabolic partial differential equation with derivative boundary conditions, both via a Fourier-series analytical solution and via a direct numerical solution. Several specific properties of the term structure of interest rate differentials are derived. For instance, for given time to maturity the interest rate differential is decreasing in the exchange rate, and for given exchange rate the interest rate differential's absolute value and its instantaneous variability are both decreasing in the time to maturity. Devaluation/realignment risks are incorporated and imply upward shifts of the interest rate differentials. Some implications of the theory are found to be broadly consistent with data on Swedish exchange rates and interest differentials for the period 1986-1989.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451964935
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
The purpose of this paper is to implement empirically the new theory of exchange rate targeting. The theory formulates an expectations induced relationship between the exchange rate and the fundamental subject to random shocks and target zone constraints. By using monthly data for a representative small-open economy (Israel in the 1980s) the empirical analysis identifies the special roled played by policy and market fundamentals in the behavior of the exchange rate.

Author: John E. Floyd
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642102808
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 406

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Book Description
A careful basic theoretical and econometric analysis of the factors determining the real exchange rates of Canada, the U.K., Japan, France and Germany with respect to the United States is conducted. The resulting conclusion is that real exchange rates are almost entirely determined by real factors relating to growth and technology such as oil and commodity prices, international allocations of world investment across countries, and underlying terms of trade changes. Unanticipated money supply shocks, calculated in five alternative ways have virtually no effects. A Blanchard-Quah VAR analysis also indicates that the effects of real shocks predominate over monetary shocks by a wide margin. The implications of these facts for the conduct of monetary policy in countries outside the U.S. are then explored leading to the conclusion that all countries, to avoid exchange rate overshooting, have tended to automatically follow the same monetary policy as the United States. The history of world monetary policy is reviewed along with the determination of real exchange rates within the Euro Area.

Author: Michael A. H. Dempster
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521584241
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 614

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Book Description
During 1995 the Isaac Newton Institute for the Mathematical Sciences at Cambridge University hosted a six month research program on financial mathematics. During this period more than 300 scholars and financial practitioners attended to conduct research and to attend more than 150 research seminars. Many of the presented papers were on the subject of financial derivatives. The very best were selected to appear in this volume. They range from abstract financial theory to practical issues pertaining to the pricing and hedging of interest rate derivatives and exotic options in the market place. Hence this book will be of interest to both academic scholars and financial engineers.

Author: Mr.Leonardo Bartolini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451921195
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54

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Book Description
This paper studies the implications of the imperfect credibility of an exchange rate target zone on the term structure of forward premia. The relationship between spot and forward exchange rates of different maturities reflects the possibility of repeated realignments of the exchange rate band. The credibility of the commitment to the target zone implicit in forward market data can be extracted by estimating the model. Application to French/German data indicates that the model is capable of matching observed patterns of interest rate differentials during the EMS, while yielding estimates of the credibility parameters that accord with the experience of the FF/DM exchange rate during the 1980s.

Author: United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Economic Goals and Intergovernmental Policy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dollar
Languages : en
Pages : 102

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Author: John Doukas
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9781560246633
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Book Description
Here are new insights into the process of European financial integration which continues to remain in the forefront of international financial developments. Based on the most recent econometric techniques and theoretical innovations, this book provides a timely core of theoretical and empirical studies on European currency movements, the European Monetary System (EMS), and developments in European banking and financial markets. European Foreign Exchange Movements and Financial Institutions offers an understanding of the current exchange rate movements within the EMS and the functioning of European financial institutions in an environment moving toward greater financial and economic integration. Contributing authors from Europe and the United States study and examine: foreign exchange risk and EMS EMS exchange rate fluctuations the effects of risk-based capital standing on European financial institutions and the rest of the world European banking acquisitions and corporate control issues interest rates and the cost structure of the French banking system European Foreign Exchange Movements and Financial Institutions is a valuable source of helpful information for students in MBA and PhD programs and for technically-oriented finance professionals with banking research interests.