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Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Technology forecasting can be used in two important ways: to assess the military (or other) applicability of recognized emerging technologies and to seek new or breakthrough approaches for solving existing problems. This document reviews some methodologies that have been used in attempts to forecast future technologies. These methodologies include formal approaches E.G., BRAINSTORMING, THE Delphi Technique, the Horizon Mission Methodology (HMM), Service studies, and the Institute for Defense Analyses involvement in the Military Critical Technologies (MCT) process and informal approaches (e.g., science fiction). The primary focus is on the longer term (perhaps 50 years in the future) and on potentially applicable military technologies.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Technology forecasting can be used in two important ways: to assess the military (or other) applicability of recognized emerging technologies and to seek new or breakthrough approaches for solving existing problems. This document reviews some methodologies that have been used in attempts to forecast future technologies. These methodologies include formal approaches E.G., BRAINSTORMING, THE Delphi Technique, the Horizon Mission Methodology (HMM), Service studies, and the Institute for Defense Analyses involvement in the Military Critical Technologies (MCT) process and informal approaches (e.g., science fiction). The primary focus is on the longer term (perhaps 50 years in the future) and on potentially applicable military technologies.
Author: James William Rooney Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The nature of technological forecasting permits the various techniques to be classified as intuitive, exploratory, and normative. Some pitfalls of technological forecasting are discussed. Factors which should be considered in selecting a forecasting technique are suggested. (Author).
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309116600 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 136
Book Description
Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
Author: Joseph P. Martino Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1351106430 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 190
Book Description
Originally published in 1972 this book examines technological forecasting and assesses its merits and limitations and possible uses for society, government, industry and the military. Although technological forecasting was in its infancy when this book was originally published, it has now become part of mainstream social and economic planning.
Author: Alan L. Porter Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9780471512233 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 472
Book Description
Consistently practical in its coverage, the book discusses general issues related to forecasting and management; introduces a variety of methods, and shows how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development. With numerous exhibits, case studies and exercises throughout, it requires only basic mathematics and includes a special technology forecasting TOOLKIT for the IBM and compatibles, along with full instructions for installing and running the program.
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Author: Hans Blohm
Author: James William Rooney
Author: Harry Jones
Author: National Research Council
Author: Michael A. Saren
Author: Joseph P. Martino
Author: Alan L. Porter
Author: Emmanuel A. Vella