Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Sure Uncertainty PDF full book. Access full book title Sure Uncertainty by Peter Larner. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Peter Larner Publisher: Lulu.com ISBN: 0244935769 Category : Fiction Languages : en Pages : 248
Book Description
Anthony Burgess said that the virtue of historical fiction is its vice - the flatfooted affirmation of possibility as fact. It is possible that Shakespeare met Marlowe, as he does in Sure Uncertainty. It is possible that Marlowe's untimely death caused some of his unpublished plays to end up in the hands of Shakespeare. And it is true, strangely, that William Shakespeare and Christopher Marlowe were born on exactly the same date. Is this a coincidence, or the reason why Will Shakespeare wants to avenge the murder of Kit and prevent Marlowe's godson from becoming involved in Catesby's plot to blow up Parliament? And yet, if the brutal killing of Marlowe was twelve years before the Gunpowder Plot, how else are these two incidents linked?
Author: Peter Larner Publisher: Lulu.com ISBN: 0244935769 Category : Fiction Languages : en Pages : 248
Book Description
Anthony Burgess said that the virtue of historical fiction is its vice - the flatfooted affirmation of possibility as fact. It is possible that Shakespeare met Marlowe, as he does in Sure Uncertainty. It is possible that Marlowe's untimely death caused some of his unpublished plays to end up in the hands of Shakespeare. And it is true, strangely, that William Shakespeare and Christopher Marlowe were born on exactly the same date. Is this a coincidence, or the reason why Will Shakespeare wants to avenge the murder of Kit and prevent Marlowe's godson from becoming involved in Catesby's plot to blow up Parliament? And yet, if the brutal killing of Marlowe was twelve years before the Gunpowder Plot, how else are these two incidents linked?
Author: Joseph B. Kadane Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1351683365 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 525
Book Description
Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied
Author: Andrzej Zuczkowski Publisher: John Benjamins Publishing Company ISBN: 9027269211 Category : Language Arts & Disciplines Languages : en Pages : 423
Book Description
This volume is a collection of 18 papers on the communication of certainty and uncertainty. The first part introduces recent theoretical developments and general models on the topic and its relations with modality, subjectivity, inter-subjectivity, epistemicity, evidentiality, hedging, mitigation and speech acts. In the second part, results from empirical studies in medical and supportive contexts are presented, all of which are based on a conversational analysis approach. These papers report on professional dialogues including advice giving in gynecological consultations, breaking diagnostic bad news to patients, emergency calls, addiction therapeutic community meetings and bureaucratic-institutional interactions. The final part concerns the qualitative and quantitative analysis of corpora, addressing scientific writing (both research and popular articles) and academic communication in English, German, Spanish and Romanian. The collection is addressed to scholars concerned with the topical issues from a theoretical and analytical perspective and to health professionals interested in the practical implications of communicating certainty or uncertainty.
Author: Joseph B. Kadane Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1439861625 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 494
Book Description
An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics.An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.
Author: Jenny Trinitapoli Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 022682571X Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 299
Book Description
"In An Epidemic of Uncertainty, Jenny Trinitapoli advances a new model for studying social life by emphasizing something that social scientists routinely omit from their theories, models, and measures--what people know they don't know. The book takes Malawi's ongoing AIDS epidemic as its entry point for understanding the stakes of uncertainty. After a four-decades-long battle, new infections are down and AIDS-related mortality has declined. But in the wake of pandemic AIDS, an epidemic of uncertainty persists; at any given point in time, half the population doesn't know their HIV status. The author argues that AIDS-related uncertainty is measurable, pervasive, and impervious to biomedical solutions. The consequences of uncertainty are pertinent to multiple domains of life including relationship stability, fertility, health, and well-being. Even as HIV is transformed from a progressive, fatal infection to a chronic and manageable condition, the accompanying epidemic of uncertainty remains central to understanding social life in this part of the world. This book is based on a ground-breaking longitudinal study that documents how the lives of young adults in Balaka, Malawi, unfold over a ten-year period. Trinitapoli also makes three general contributions: first, a demography of uncertainty and a set of theoretical and empirical tools for integrating what people know they don't know into social-scientific models of human behavior; second, a decade-long longitudinal study articulating what demographic approaches have to offer the social sciences; and third, an expansive attitude toward the empirical, which brings longitudinal survey data to life by incorporating accounts of uncertainty and its resolution through ethnography designed to capture population chatter and gossip in Balaka"--
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0203834984 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 538
Book Description
Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker‘s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a
Author: Christian Müller-Kademann Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 0429667213 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 122
Book Description
This book is set against the assumption that humans' unique feature is their infinite creativity, their ability to reflect on their deeds and to control their actions. These skills give rise to genuine uncertainty in society and hence in the economy. Here, the author sets out that uncertainty must take centre stage in all analyses of human decision making and therefore in economics. Uncertainty and Economics carefully defines a taxonomy of uncertainty and argues that it is only uncertainty in its most radical form which matters to economics. It shows that uncertainty is a powerful concept that not only helps to resolve long-standing economic puzzles but also unveils serious contradictions within current, popular economic approaches. It argues that neoclassical, real business cycle, or new-Keynesian economics must be understood as only one way to circumvent the analytical challenges posed by uncertainty. Instead, embracing uncertainty offers a new analytical paradigm which, in this book, is applied to standard economic topics such as institutions, money, the Lucas critique, fiscal policy and asset pricing. Through applying a concise uncertainty paradigm, the book sheds new light on human decision making at large. Offering policy conclusions and recommendations for further theoretical and applied research, it will be of great interest to postgraduate students, academics and policy makers.
Author: Andreas Schedler Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0199680329 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 508
Book Description
This volume offers a major new theory of authoritarian politics. It studies regime struggles between government and opposition under electoral authoritarianism and argues that autocracies suffer from institutional uncertainties.
Author: Graham C. Davey Publisher: ISBN: Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 386
Book Description
The contributions in this comprehensive volume represent research conducted over the past 10 years. Practical and clinically relevant developments; several measurement instruments for the assessment of worry at all points along the developmental continuum; specific management and treatment strategies including a particularly useful tactic for modifying pessimism in worriers are among the issues discussed.
Author: Peter Larner
Author: Peter Larner
Author: Joseph B. Kadane
Author: Andrzej Zuczkowski
Author: Joseph B. Kadane
Author: Jenny Trinitapoli
Author: 
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis
Author: Christian Müller-Kademann
Author: Andreas Schedler
Author: Graham C. Davey