Author: Gabriel Weinberg
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0525533591
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352

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Book Description
A WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER! "You can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts. If the facts don't hang together on a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form. You've got to have models in your head." - Charlie Munger, investor, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway The world's greatest problem-solvers, forecasters, and decision-makers all rely on a set of frameworks and shortcuts that help them cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones. They're called mental models, and you can find them in dense textbooks on psychology, physics, economics, and more. Or, you can just read Super Thinking, a fun, illustrated guide to every mental model you could possibly need. How can mental models help you? Well, here are just a few examples... • If you've ever been overwhelmed by a to-do list that's grown too long, maybe you need the Eisenhower Decision Matrix to help you prioritize. • Use the 5 Whys model to better understand people's motivations or get to the root cause of a problem. • Before concluding that your colleague who messes up your projects is out to sabotage you, consider Hanlon's Razor for an alternative explanation. • Ever sat through a bad movie just because you paid a lot for the ticket? You might be falling prey to Sunk Cost Fallacy. • Set up Forcing Functions, like standing meeting or deadlines, to help grease the wheels for changes you want to occur. So, the next time you find yourself faced with a difficult decision or just trying to understand a complex situation, let Super Thinking upgrade your brain with mental models.

Author: Paul Sloane
Publisher: Sterling Publishing Company, Inc.
ISBN: 9780806944708
Category : Games & Activities
Languages : en
Pages : 100

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Book Description
Stand out from the pack--don't think conventionally, think laterally! And, you can start developing well-honed mental skills with more than 80 braintwisting puzzles that test your creativity and smarts. At first it might not seem as if there's enough information to solve them, but if you just persist, you'll come up with the logical answers. Some of the conundrums come from real life: try to figure out how the Greek playwright Aeschylus could have been killed by a tortoise or how the truth about Mary Queen of Scots' baldness was finally revealed. Or, give this a shot: A runner was awarded a prize for winning a marathon. But, the judges disqualified him when they saw a picture of his wristwatch. Why? Happy puzzling! Answer: A picture of the runner early in the race showed him wearing his watch on his right wrist. When he crossed the finishing line it was on his left wrist. The judges investigated and found that one man had run the first half and his identical twin brother ran the second half of the race.

Author: Annie Duke
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0735216371
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 289

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Book Description
A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Author: Marcus P Dawson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 284

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Book Description
Do you want to understand the roles of thinking in systems and how they affect, hinder, or aid in the fulfillment of your life? Do you want to increase your thinking skills and build effective mental models? Just as every node on a network contributes to the final result, every action of a member of a particular organizational system contributes to the outcome. Without a broad view of interconnectedness, our problem-solving skills are limited and short-sighted, and our abilities to make long-term, beneficial decisions are hampered. If we only look to the immediate and the superficial, we forget that we are reliant on the smallest of parts. If we don't acknowledge the complexity of our interdependence, then we are doomed to replicate a system that will ultimately fail. Awareness of our interconnectedness is key to solving the biggest and most complex problems that we face in contemporary society. The real question is not whether we should use system thinking, but which of the many ideas, approaches, and techniques currently associated with the field of system thinking are most useful in specific settings. In the year of 1943, Kenneth Craik, a Scottish psychologist, explained that the human mind expects events and describes fundamentals by building small-scale models of the real world. A mental model is a way we represent and understand an event, phenomenon, or system in a compact manner. There is a mental model for everything that happens around you. In this book you will learn: - The key concepts of systems thinking - How to solve any problem with step by step method - Tips to improve your decision-making process - The role of Chaos Theory in systemic thinking - What is wrong with your current way of thinking and how you can improve it - Strategies for developing habits, mental toughness, and resilience to combat mental clutter - 40 mental models that you can use in your daily life - To identify the mental models you already use every day - How to expand your set of mental models, create new ones and use them effectively ... and much more! Systems thinking provides a framework for defining and solving problems. Start by paying attention to the questions you ask to practice thinking from a more systemic perspective. Extend your sense of what constitutes "the present." Try to think as "now" in terms of a longer block of time. Ask yourself what happened just a year ago. What is going on now? What happens next year? We can grasp interconnections that we may not have seen before by extending our sense of the "now." You are changing the way you think! It is not something easy and is an extremely challenging task. Just think about it. That is the way you have thought for all these years of your life. Your behavior and perception of things are influenced by mental models. You will be astonished as to how you start seeing the world in a different light the moment you expose yourself to a new mental model. Once you start using them in your life, your day-to-day life will start becoming so much easier. There is no end to the number of mental models that exist on this earth and you will learn about so many of them in this book. Right now. Ready to get started? But don't think too much about it. Click "Buy Now"!

Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331

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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Author: Peter Hollins
Publisher: PublishDrive
ISBN:
Category : Self-Help
Languages : en
Pages : 137

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Book Description
30 Practical and applicable guidelines to think smarter, faster, and with expert insight (even if you aren’t one). Mental models are like giving a treasure map to someone lost in the woods. They provide instant understanding, context, and most importantly, a path to the end destination. Now imagine having such a map for all problems and decisions in your life. Battle information overwhelm, focus on what really matters, and make complex decisions with speed and confidence. Mental Models: 30 Thinking Tools sheds light on true intelligence: it’s not about knowledge and knowing the capitals of all the countries in the world. It’s about how you think, and each mental model is a specific framework on how to think smart and with insight. You can approach the world by trying to analyze each piece of information separately, or you can learn mental models that do the work for you. Learn how billionaires/CEOs, Olympic athletes, and scientists think differently and avoid mistakes. Peter Hollins has studied psychology and peak human performance for over a dozen years and is a bestselling author. He has worked with a multitude of individuals to unlock their potential and path towards success. His writing draws on his academic, coaching, and research experience.

Author: David J. Schwartz
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0698198581
Category : Self-Help
Languages : en
Pages : 315

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Book Description
The timeless and practical advice in The Magic of Thinking Big clearly demonstrates how you can: Sell more Manage better Lead fearlessly Earn more Enjoy a happier, more fulfilling life With applicable and easy-to-implement insights, you’ll discover: Why believing you can succeed is essential How to quit making excuses The means to overcoming fear and finding confidence How to develop and use creative thinking and dreaming Why making (and getting) the most of your attitudes is critical How to think right towards others The best ways to make “action” a habit How to find victory in defeat Goals for growth, and How to think like a leader "Believe Big,” says Schwartz. “The size of your success is determined by the size of your belief. Think little goals and expect little achievements. Think big goals and win big success. Remember this, too! Big ideas and big plans are often easier -- certainly no more difficult - than small ideas and small plans."

Author: Shane Parrish
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781999449032
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 397

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Book Description
This is the second book in The Great Mental Models series and the highly anticipated follow up to the Wall Street Journal best seller, Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts. We tend to isolate the things we know in the domain we learned it. For example: What does the inertia of a rolling stone have to do with perseverance and being open minded? How can the ancient process of steel production make you a more creative and innovative thinker? What does the replication of our skin cells have to do with being a stronger and more effective leader? On the surface, these concepts may appear to be dissimilar and unrelated. But the surprising truth is the hard sciences (physics, chemistry, and biology) offer a wealth of useful tools you can use to develop critically important skills like: * Relationship building * Leadership * Communication * Creativity * Curiosity * Problem solving * Decision-making This second volume of the Great Mental Models series shows you how to make those connections. It explores the core ideas from the hard sciences and offers nearly two dozen models to add to your mental toolbox. You'll not only get a better understanding of the forces that influence the world around you, but you'll learn how to direct those forces to create outsized advantages in the areas of your life that matter most to you.

Author: Thomas W. Malone
Publisher: Hachette UK
ISBN: 0316349100
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 311

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Book Description
From the founding director of the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence comes a fascinating look at the remarkable capacity for intelligence exhibited by groups of people and computers working together. If you're like most people, you probably believe that humans are the most intelligent animals on our planet. But there's another kind of entity that can be far smarter: groups of people. In this groundbreaking book, Thomas Malone, the founding director of the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, shows how groups of people working together in superminds -- like hierarchies, markets, democracies, and communities -- have been responsible for almost all human achievements in business, government, science, and beyond. And these collectively intelligent human groups are about to get much smarter. Using dozens of striking examples and case studies, Malone shows how computers can help create more intelligent superminds simply by connecting humans to one another in a variety of rich, new ways. And although it will probably happen more gradually than many people expect, artificially intelligent computers will amplify the power of these superminds by doing increasingly complex kinds of thinking. Together, these changes will have far-reaching implications for everything from the way we buy groceries and plan business strategies to how we respond to climate change, and even for democracy itself. By understanding how these collectively intelligent groups work, we can learn how to harness their genius to achieve our human goals. Drawing on cutting-edge science and insights from a remarkable range of disciplines, Superminds articulates a bold -- and utterly fascinating -- picture of the future that will change the ways you work and live, both with other people and with computers.

Author: Martine Bolton
Publisher: Independently Published
ISBN: 9781704509419
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 283

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Book Description
The quality of our thinking is foundational to the results we get in life and at work. When we understand the connection between our thoughts, feelings, actions, and how things are turning out for us, we can begin to make changes that transform everything.Our thinking can either be our superpower - enabling and empowering us to enjoy life and achieve our goals and dreams, or it can be our Kryptonite - draining our power and causing unhappiness, problems and dysfunction.Many of us experience a significant amount of faulty or unhelpful thinking that gets in the way of our happiness, health, success and prosperity, including: -Worry, fear and self-doubt-Imposter syndrome-Negative and limiting beliefs-Perfectionism, criticism and comparison-Foggy thinking, scattered thinking-Over-thinking.This book will enable you to identify and conquer your Kryptonite, and supercharge how you think, how you feel, and what you do, in order to transform the results that you're getting. The process described can be used to achieve small personal changes or larger scale transformation. The world needs more of us to step up and claim our superpowers in order to create the future we want, and not just accept the one we don't want.These are crucial and exciting times. What are you waiting for?