Author: Craig R. Fox
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One of the most popular approaches is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides such judgments. We show that assessed probabilities are systematically biased toward a uniform distribution over all events into which the relevant state space happens to be partitioned so that probabilities are "partition-dependent." We surmise that a typical assessor begins with an "ignorance prior" distribution that assigns equal probabilities to all specified events, then adjusts those probabilities insufficiently to reflect his or her beliefs concerning how the likelihoods of the events differ. In five studies, we demonstrate partition dependence for both discrete events and continuous variables (Studies 1 and 2), show that the bias decreases with increased domain knowledge (Studies 3 and 4), and that top experts in decision analysis are susceptible to this bias (Study 5). We relate our work to previous research on the "pruning bias" in fault-tree assessment (e.g., Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1978) and show that previous explanations of pruning bias (enhanced availability of events that are explicitly specified, ambiguity in interpreting event categories, demand effects) cannot fully account for partition dependence. We conclude by discussing implications for decision analysis practice.
Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis
Author: Craig R. Fox
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One of the most popular approaches is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides such judgments. We show that assessed probabilities are systematically biased toward a uniform distribution over all events into which the relevant state space happens to be partitioned so that probabilities are "partition-dependent." We surmise that a typical assessor begins with an "ignorance prior" distribution that assigns equal probabilities to all specified events, then adjusts those probabilities insufficiently to reflect his or her beliefs concerning how the likelihoods of the events differ. In five studies, we demonstrate partition dependence for both discrete events and continuous variables (Studies 1 and 2), show that the bias decreases with increased domain knowledge (Studies 3 and 4), and that top experts in decision analysis are susceptible to this bias (Study 5). We relate our work to previous research on the "pruning bias" in fault-tree assessment (e.g., Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1978) and show that previous explanations of pruning bias (enhanced availability of events that are explicitly specified, ambiguity in interpreting event categories, demand effects) cannot fully account for partition dependence. We conclude by discussing implications for decision analysis practice.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One of the most popular approaches is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides such judgments. We show that assessed probabilities are systematically biased toward a uniform distribution over all events into which the relevant state space happens to be partitioned so that probabilities are "partition-dependent." We surmise that a typical assessor begins with an "ignorance prior" distribution that assigns equal probabilities to all specified events, then adjusts those probabilities insufficiently to reflect his or her beliefs concerning how the likelihoods of the events differ. In five studies, we demonstrate partition dependence for both discrete events and continuous variables (Studies 1 and 2), show that the bias decreases with increased domain knowledge (Studies 3 and 4), and that top experts in decision analysis are susceptible to this bias (Study 5). We relate our work to previous research on the "pruning bias" in fault-tree assessment (e.g., Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1978) and show that previous explanations of pruning bias (enhanced availability of events that are explicitly specified, ambiguity in interpreting event categories, demand effects) cannot fully account for partition dependence. We conclude by discussing implications for decision analysis practice.
Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis
Subjective Probability
Author: George Wright
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608
Book Description
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608
Book Description
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Readings in Decision Analysis
Author: S. French
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780412321702
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
Book Description
Provides an introduction to decision analysis. This book is based upon a number of papers and articles taken from the Operational Research Society's journal and other publications. However, the book is not simply a 'collection of reprints': Professor French has provided extensive notes and commentary to weave the extracts into a coherent whole. Although techniques are presented, the main thrust is to convey the purpose of decision analysis and the interpretation that should be placed upon its output: vital topics, but ones seldom discussed in introductory texts. The writing is aimed at the non-technical reader.
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780412321702
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
Book Description
Provides an introduction to decision analysis. This book is based upon a number of papers and articles taken from the Operational Research Society's journal and other publications. However, the book is not simply a 'collection of reprints': Professor French has provided extensive notes and commentary to weave the extracts into a coherent whole. Although techniques are presented, the main thrust is to convey the purpose of decision analysis and the interpretation that should be placed upon its output: vital topics, but ones seldom discussed in introductory texts. The writing is aimed at the non-technical reader.
An Empirical Investigation of Information Evocation for Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis Tasks
Author: Glenn Jefferson Browne
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 394
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 394
Book Description
Assigning Subjective Probabilities to Event Trees
Author: Craig R. Fox
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One popular approach is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides subjective probabilities. We show that assessed probabilities are biased toward a uniform distribution over all events into which the relevant sample space happens to be partitioned. We surmise that an assessor begins with an "ignorance prior" probability distribution that assigns equal probabilities to the specified events, then insufficiently adjusts those probabilities to reflect his or her beliefs concerning how the likelihood of the events differ. In five studies, we demonstrate partition dependence for both discrete events and continuous variables (Studies 1 and 2), show that the bias decreases (but may or may not disappear) with increased domain knowledge (Studies 3 & 4), and that top experts in decision analysis are susceptible to this bias (Study 5). We relate our work to previous research on the "pruning bias" in fault-tree assessment (e.g., Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1978) and show that previous explanations (enhanced availability of specified events, ambiguity in interpreting event categories, demand effects) cannot fully account for the effect. We conclude by discussing implications for decision-analysis practice.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One popular approach is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides subjective probabilities. We show that assessed probabilities are biased toward a uniform distribution over all events into which the relevant sample space happens to be partitioned. We surmise that an assessor begins with an "ignorance prior" probability distribution that assigns equal probabilities to the specified events, then insufficiently adjusts those probabilities to reflect his or her beliefs concerning how the likelihood of the events differ. In five studies, we demonstrate partition dependence for both discrete events and continuous variables (Studies 1 and 2), show that the bias decreases (but may or may not disappear) with increased domain knowledge (Studies 3 & 4), and that top experts in decision analysis are susceptible to this bias (Study 5). We relate our work to previous research on the "pruning bias" in fault-tree assessment (e.g., Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1978) and show that previous explanations (enhanced availability of specified events, ambiguity in interpreting event categories, demand effects) cannot fully account for the effect. We conclude by discussing implications for decision-analysis practice.
Degrees of Belief
Author: Steven G. Vick
Publisher: ASCE Publications
ISBN: 0784470863
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 469
Book Description
Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Publisher: ASCE Publications
ISBN: 0784470863
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 469
Book Description
Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Assessment and Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions
Author: Carl-Axel S. Staƫl von Holstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 248
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 248
Book Description
Aspects of Decision Making Based on Subjective Assessment of Probability
Formal Methods in Policy Formulation
Author: BUNN
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3034852886
Category : Science
Languages : de
Pages : 251
Book Description
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3034852886
Category : Science
Languages : de
Pages : 251
Book Description