Structural Time Series Modelling of Crime Rates: the Case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Structural Time Series Modelling of Crime Rates: the Case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia PDF full book. Access full book title Structural Time Series Modelling of Crime Rates: the Case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia by Fanos Ashenafi Gebremeskel. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Fanos Ashenafi Gebremeskel Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3656549575 Category : Mathematics Languages : de Pages : 116
Book Description
Doktorarbeit / Dissertation aus dem Jahr 2012 im Fachbereich Mathematik - Statistik, Hawassa University, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The basic goal of this study was to model monthly crime rates and the impact of sentence reforms on reported crime in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, over the study period of April 2002 to January 2012 GC by incorporating intervention effects. Monthly data obtained from Addis Ababa Police Commission for a total of 118 months were used. The impact of this legislation on reported crime rates was examined using OLS regression model and time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models were employed for the intervention analysis. The best fitted models were selected based on the model capturing the variations in the data accessed through Rs2, AIC and BIC. Comparisons of the selected model were carried out based on ability of prediction via predictive error variance. Both the local level and local linear trend models with inclusion of seasonal and cyclical effects was found to be the best fitted model for modelling of both property and violent crimes, such as murder, aggravated assault, rape, robbery, burglary and larceny. The result of the analysis shows that the coefficient of intervention was negative to rate of murder, robbery, rape and larceny but it was significant only for larceny. The effect of macroeconomic variables such as food inflation, non-food inflation, general inflation and unemployment were statistically significant for aggravated assault. It is recommended that the government and the concerned body should take some measures to tackle inflation and unemployment issues in the city. The rates of crime reported in the violent and property crimes contained seasonality. Thus, prevention mechanisms based on seasonals need to designed.
Author: Fanos Ashenafi Gebremeskel Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3656549575 Category : Mathematics Languages : de Pages : 116
Book Description
Doktorarbeit / Dissertation aus dem Jahr 2012 im Fachbereich Mathematik - Statistik, Hawassa University, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The basic goal of this study was to model monthly crime rates and the impact of sentence reforms on reported crime in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, over the study period of April 2002 to January 2012 GC by incorporating intervention effects. Monthly data obtained from Addis Ababa Police Commission for a total of 118 months were used. The impact of this legislation on reported crime rates was examined using OLS regression model and time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models were employed for the intervention analysis. The best fitted models were selected based on the model capturing the variations in the data accessed through Rs2, AIC and BIC. Comparisons of the selected model were carried out based on ability of prediction via predictive error variance. Both the local level and local linear trend models with inclusion of seasonal and cyclical effects was found to be the best fitted model for modelling of both property and violent crimes, such as murder, aggravated assault, rape, robbery, burglary and larceny. The result of the analysis shows that the coefficient of intervention was negative to rate of murder, robbery, rape and larceny but it was significant only for larceny. The effect of macroeconomic variables such as food inflation, non-food inflation, general inflation and unemployment were statistically significant for aggravated assault. It is recommended that the government and the concerned body should take some measures to tackle inflation and unemployment issues in the city. The rates of crime reported in the violent and property crimes contained seasonality. Thus, prevention mechanisms based on seasonals need to designed.
Author: Spencer Chainey Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118685199 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 282
Book Description
The growing potential of GIS for supporting policing and crime reduction is now being recognised by a broader community. GIS can be employed at different levels to support operational policing, tactical crime mapping, detection, and wider-ranging strategic analyses. With the use of GIS for crime mapping increasing, this book provides a definitive reference. GIS and Crime Mapping provides essential information and reference material to support readers in developing and implementing crime mapping. Relevant case studies help demonstrate the key principles, concepts and applications of crime mapping. This book combines the topics of theoretical principles, GIS, analytical techniques, data processing solutions, information sharing, problem-solving approaches, map design, and organisational structures for using crime mapping for policing and crime reduction. Delivered in an accessible style, topics are covered in a manner that underpins crime mapping use in the three broad areas of operations, tactics and strategy. Provides a complete start-to-finish coverage of crime mapping, including theory, scientific methodologies, analysis techniques and design principles. Includes a comprehensive presentation of crime mapping applications for operational, tactical and strategic purposes. Includes global case studies and examples to demonstrate good practice. Co-authored by Spencer Chainey, a leading researcher and consultant on GIS and crime mapping, and Jerry Ratcliffe, a renowned professor and former police officer. This book is essential reading for crime analysts and other professionals working in intelligence roles in law enforcement or crime reduction, at the local, regional and national government levels. It is also an excellent reference for undergraduate and Masters students taking courses in GIS, Geomatics, Crime Mapping, Crime Science, Criminal Justice and Criminology.
Author: Martin Farrell Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1134863837 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 227
Book Description
While some European nations share similar crime rates and trends, many differ widely in their approach to criminal justice. And as Europe's internal frontiers prepare to give way to a `single market', issues such as the movement of terrorists, international fraud, and drug trafficking, take on new, significant dimensions. This is the first book to address these issues and attempt a comparative criminology for Europe. The contributors cover a range of subjects including *crime prevention* women and crime*the relationship of ethnic minorities to crime and the police*corporate crime* accountability in the prison system.
Author: Stephen Eugene Brown Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1455730106 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 593
Book Description
This highly acclaimed criminology text presents an up-to-date review of rational choice theories, including deterrence, shaming, and routine activities.
Author: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Publisher: UN ISBN: 9789211302950 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
In The globalization of crime: a transnational organized crime threat assessment, UNODC analyses a range of key transnational crime threats, including human trafficking, migrant smuggling, the illicit heroin and cocaine trades, cybercrime, maritime piracy and trafficking in environmental resources, firearms and counterfeit goods. The report also examines a number of cases where transnational organized crime and instability amplify each other to create vicious circles in which countries or even subregions may become locked. Thus, the report offers a striking view of the global dimensions of organized crime today.
Author: Kauko Aromaa Publisher: Criminal Justice Press ISBN: 9525333361 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 234
Book Description
Recent crime and criminal justice system trends in the countries of Europe and North America are reported, based on data in the sixth through the ninth United Nations Surveys on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (CTS). The CTS is the main source of worldwide data on national recorded crime rates and criminal justice system operations. Data for the years 1995-2004 were obtained from official agencies in Canada, the U.S. and more than 30 countries in Europe, and were analyzed by a working group of international experts. The biggest strength of this dataset is that it allows the study of crime and criminal justice systems over a full ten-year period. Two of the major trends across Europe and North America in this period were: (1) On average, the number of criminal justice personnel and the resources of the national criminal justice systems remained stable. (2) The numbers of recorded assaults, robberies, drug-related offenses and frauds increased, while the numbers of thefts, auto thefts and burglary suspects decreased. The following 11 chapters provide extensive analyses of and statistical data on multinational trends: Introduction by Kauko Aromaa; Trends in Criminal Justice System Resources 1995-2004 by Beata Gruszczynska and Ineke Haen Marshall; Trends of Recorded Crime by Kauko Aromaa and Markku Heiskanen; Persons Brought into Initial Contact with the Police by Markku Heiskanen; Prosecution and Courts by Paul Smit; Juvenile Justice and the United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and Criminal Justice Systems by Steven Malby; Trends in Prison Population 1995-2004 by Roy Walmsley; An Empirical Approach to Country Clustering by Paul Smit, Ineke Haen Marshall andMirjam van Gammeren; Measu
Author: Bacha Kebede Debela Publisher: Leuven University Press ISBN: 946270256X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 703
Book Description
Building an effective, inclusive, and accountable public administration has become a major point of attention for policymakers and academics in Ethiopia who want to realise sustainable development. This first handbook on Ethiopian Public Administration is written by Ethiopian academics and practitioner-academics and builds on PhD studies and conference papers, including studies presented at the meetings of the Ethiopian Public Administration Association (EPAA), established in 2016. Public Administration in Ethiopia presents a wide range of timely issues in four thematic parts: Governance, Human Resources, Performance and Quality, and Governance of Policies. Each of the individual chapters in this volume contributes in a different way to the overarching research questions: How can we describe and explain the contexts, the processes and the results of the post-1990 politico-administrative reforms in Ethiopia? And what are the implications for sustainable development? This book is essential for students, practitioners, and theorists interested in public administration, public policy, and sustainable development. Moreover, the volume is a valuable stepping stone for PA teaching and PA research in Ethiopia.
Author: Janelle Plummer Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 0821395327 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 448
Book Description
This is a study of the nature of corruption in Ethiopia. It maps eight key sectors. The diagnostics strongly suggest that, in Ethiopia, corrupt practice in the delivery of basic services is potentially much lower than other low-income countries, but that there are emerging patterns in sector level corruption.
Author: Anna Almakaeva Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030758133 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 274
Book Description
This book presents a cross-cultural investigation into the interplay between social capital and subjective well-being. Based on a quantitative analysis of the latest large-N cross-cultural data sets, including the World Value Survey and the European Social Survey, and covering various countries, it offers a comparative perspective on and new insights into the determinants of social capital and well-being. By identifying both universal and culture-specific patterns, the authors shed new light on the spatial and temporal differentiation of social capital and subjective well-being. The book is divided into two main parts: The first discusses mutual trust, religious and cultural tolerance, and pro-social and human values as essential dimensions of social capital. In turn, the second part studies social capital as a source of subjective well-being and life satisfaction. Given its scope, the book will appeal to scholars of sociology, social psychology, political science and economics seeking a deeper understanding of the multi-faceted nature of social capital and well-being.
Author: Fanos Ashenafi Gebremeskel
Author: Fanos Ashenafi Gebremeskel
Author: Spencer Chainey
Author: Martin Farrell
Author: Stephen Eugene Brown
Author: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
Author: Kauko Aromaa
Author: Bacha Kebede Debela
Author: Janelle Plummer
Author: 
Author: Anna Almakaeva