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Author: G. Elliott Morris Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company ISBN: 039386698X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States.
Author: G. Elliott Morris Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company ISBN: 039386698X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States.
Author: W. Joseph Campbell Publisher: University of California Press ISBN: 0520300963 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 365
Book Description
A sweeping look at the messy and contentious past of US presidential pre-election polls and why they aren’t as reliable as we think. Polls in U.S. presidential elections can and do get it wrong—as surprising outcomes in 2020, in 2016, in 2012, in 2004, in 2000 all remind us. Lost in a Gallup captures in lively and unprecedented fashion the stories of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in presidential elections since 1936. Polling’s checkered record in elections has rarely been considered in detail and, until now, has never been addressed collectively. Polling embarrassments are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides occurred; they have indicated the wrong winner in closer elections; state polls have confounded expected national outcomes. Exit polling has thrown Election Day into confusion. The work of venerable pollsters has been singularly and memorably in error. It is a rare presidential election not to be marred by polling controversies. Lost in a Gallup casts a critical eye on major figures in election polling such as George Gallup, a prickly founding father of public opinion research. The book also considers the polling innovations of Warren Mitofsky, whose admonition rings true across generations: “There’s a lot of room for humility in polling. Every time you get cocky, you lose.” Lost in a Gallup examines how polling failure often equates to journalistic failure. Historically, poll-bashing was quite pronounced among prominent journalists, including well-known newspaper columnists such as Mike Royko in Chicago and Jimmy Breslin in New York. They and other journalists challenged the presumption that polls could accurately measure or interpret what the public was thinking. Even so, polls drive news media narratives about presidential elections, shaping conventional wisdom about how competitive those races are. As Lost in a Gallup makes clear, polls are not always in error. But when they fail, they can fail in surprising ways.
Author: Carl Allen Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1040148719 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 368
Book Description
Interpreting poll data as a prediction of election outcomes is a practice as old as the field, rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of what poll data means. By first understanding how polls work at a fundamental level, this book gives readers the ability to discern flaws in the current methods. Then, through specific political examples from both the United States and the United Kingdom, it is shown how polls famously derided as "wrong" were, in fact, accurate. While polls are not always accurate, the reasons we can and can’t (rightly) call them "wrong" are explained in this book. This book will equip readers with the tools to navigate the mismatch of expectations. It is not intended to replace more technical applications of statistics but is accessible to anyone interested in learning more about how poll data should be understood, compared to how it’s currently misunderstood.
Author: Michael A. Bailey Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1108482791 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 291
Book Description
Polling at a Crossroads presents an intuitive paradigm that allows us to understand and confront the challenges facing modern polling.
Author: John Zogby Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield ISBN: 1538197154 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 173
Book Description
Called a "timely read for the politically inclined" (Booklist), this book from one of America’s most prominent pollsters offers readers a master class in understanding what polls can reveal about public opinion. Americans are preoccupied with political polls. In this book, John Zogby, one of America’s most prominent pollsters, offers readers a master class in understanding what polls can reveal about public opinion. He argues that those who focus only on the horse race numbers—who is leading and who is trailing—miss the many ways that polls can help us understand the fundamentals of the electorate at any given time. Illustrating his arguments from key political races of the last 40 years, Zogby shares true stories about how polls have been misused and when they have been used well or badly. Beyond the Horse Race will appeal to campaign professionals and armchair political junkies who want to understand the art and science of accurately gauging public opinion.
Author: Zachary Cook Publisher: Lexington Books ISBN: 1666925713 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 239
Book Description
Young Americans are not reliable liberals. But drawing from over one hundred surveys from the present day back to the Great Depression, and from interviews with campaign professionals from the Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders campaigns, Zachary Cook argues that across the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, younger Americans have more faith in the power of government to provide better economic outcomes for all, and to effectively regulate business – if the right politicians can be found to do it. While older voters grow more skeptical about the federal government’s power to oversee the private sector, youth are more idealistic about the power of government to “do more,” even while they may distrust current politicians in office. Younger voters are not hostile to capitalism. They do not feel they have to choose sides between big government and big business. Given the current two-party system, this potential trust in the power of government works in the Democrats’ favor when appealing to the youth vote.
Author: Anthony Salvanto Publisher: Simon & Schuster ISBN: 1501174851 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 272
Book Description
CBS News’ Elections and Surveys Director Anthony Salvanto takes you behind the scenes of polling to show you how to think about who we are and where we’re headed as a nation. As Elections and Surveys Director for CBS News, it’s Anthony Salvanto’s job to understand you—what you think and how you vote. He’s the person behind so many of the poll numbers you see today, making the winner calls on election nights and surveying thousands of Americans. In Where Did You Get This Number? A Pollster’s Guide to Making Sense of the World, Salvanto takes readers on a fast-paced, eye-opening tour through the world of polling and elections and what they really show about America today, beyond the who's-up-who’s-down headlines and horse races. Salvanto is just the person to bring much-needed clarity in a time when divisions seem to run so deep. The language of polling may be numbers, but the stories it tells are about people. In this engaging insider’s account, Salvanto demystifies jargon with plain language and answers readers’ biggest questions about polling and pollsters. How can they talk to 1,000 people and know the country? How do they know the winner so fast? How do they decide what questions to ask? Why didn't they call you? Salvanto offers data-driven perspective on how Americans see the biggest issues of our time, from the surprising 2016 election, to the shocks of the financial crisis, the response to terrorism and the backlash against big money. He doesn’t shy away from pointing out what’s worked and what hasn’t. Salvanto takes readers inside the CBS newsroom on Election Night 2016 and makes readers rethink conventional wisdom and punditry just in time for the 2018 midterms. He shows who really decides elections and why you should think about a poll differently from the forecasts popularized by Nate Silver and others. Where Did You Get This Number? is an essential resource for anyone interested in politics—and how to better measure and understand patterns of human behavior. For any American who wants to get a better read on what America is thinking, this book shows you how to make sense of it all.
Author: Theresa Marchant-Shapiro Publisher: CQ Press ISBN: 1483323684 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 384
Book Description
Statistics are just as vital to understanding political science as the study of institutions, but getting students to understand them when teaching a methods course can be a big challenge. Statistics for Political Analysis makes understanding the numbers easy. The only introduction to statistics book written specifically for political science undergraduates, this book explains each statistical concept in plain language—from basic univariate statistics and the basic measures of association to bivariate and multivariate regression—and uses real world political examples. Students learn the relevance of statistics to political science, how to understand and calculate statistics mathematically, and how to obtain them using SPSS. All calculations are modeled step-by-step, giving students needed practice to master the process without making it intimidating. Each chapter concludes with exercises that get students actively applying the steps and building their professional skills through data calculation, analysis, and memo writing.
Author: W. Joseph Campbell Publisher: Univ of California Press ISBN: 0520397827 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 366
Book Description
This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Author: George Stephanopoulos Publisher: Back Bay Books ISBN: 0316041920 Category : Biography & Autobiography Languages : en Pages : 344
Book Description
All Too Human is a new-generation political memoir, written from the refreshing perspective of one who got his hands on the levers of awesome power at an early age. At thirty, the author was at Bill Clinton's side during the presidential campaign of 1992, & for the next five years he was rarely more than a step away from the president & his other advisers at every important moment of the first term. What Liar's Poker did to Wall Street, this book will do to politics. It is an irreverent & intimate portrait of how the nation's weighty business is conducted by people whose egos & idiosyncrasies are no sturdier than anyone else's. Including sharp portraits of the Clintons, Al Gore, Dick Morris, Colin Powell, & scores of others, as well as candid & revelatory accounts of the famous debacles & triumphs of an administration that constantly went over the top, All Too Human is, like its author, a brilliant combination of pragmatic insight & idealism. It is destined to be the most important & enduring book to come out of the Clinton administration.
Author: G. Elliott Morris
Author: G. Elliott Morris
Author: W. Joseph Campbell
Author: Carl Allen
Author: Michael A. Bailey
Author: John Zogby
Author: Zachary Cook
Author: Anthony Salvanto
Author: Theresa Marchant-Shapiro
Author: W. Joseph Campbell
Author: George Stephanopoulos