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Author: Simon Ramo Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional ISBN: 0071626174 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 239
Book Description
“A helpful read not just for corporate strategists but for almost anyone looking ahead.” Los Angeles Times What's Your Next Big Move? At the turn of the century, Western Union passed on the chance to dominate the telephone industry. Later, General Electric concluded that a new invention called television was doomed to fail. And very recently, decision makers at the highest level were taken off-guard when the global economy dropped from under their feet--and took their companies with it. Today, only those business leaders with the power of long-term foresight will seize and hold true competitive advantage. But can managers really predict the future? Yes, to a greater extent than one might expect. Strategic Business Forecasting shows how to identify and quantify possible events that may affect your business. Applying creativity, personal experience, and the lessons of history, you can use such forecasting to develop plans that will help your organization compete. Drs. Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar, two giants of the aerospace industry, share their Four-Measures Rating system to help you explore the world of possibilities--thoroughly and systematically. Under their tutelage, you will be equipped to: Create a comprehensive list of possible scenarios concerning your business Utilize a scoring system to rate each scenario's merit as a serious and useful prediction Develop an effective plan that strategically shapes the future of your organization The authors provide vivid illustrations of the Four-Measures system at work with real-world examples of both forecasting failures and successes. No one can predict perfectly, and the authors don't promise magic. With the approach described in Strategic Business Forecasting, however, you can ensure your organization is better poised to seize future opportunities, avoid pitfalls, and handle anything the increasingly volatile global economy throws your way.
Author: Simon Ramo Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional ISBN: 0071626174 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 239
Book Description
“A helpful read not just for corporate strategists but for almost anyone looking ahead.” Los Angeles Times What's Your Next Big Move? At the turn of the century, Western Union passed on the chance to dominate the telephone industry. Later, General Electric concluded that a new invention called television was doomed to fail. And very recently, decision makers at the highest level were taken off-guard when the global economy dropped from under their feet--and took their companies with it. Today, only those business leaders with the power of long-term foresight will seize and hold true competitive advantage. But can managers really predict the future? Yes, to a greater extent than one might expect. Strategic Business Forecasting shows how to identify and quantify possible events that may affect your business. Applying creativity, personal experience, and the lessons of history, you can use such forecasting to develop plans that will help your organization compete. Drs. Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar, two giants of the aerospace industry, share their Four-Measures Rating system to help you explore the world of possibilities--thoroughly and systematically. Under their tutelage, you will be equipped to: Create a comprehensive list of possible scenarios concerning your business Utilize a scoring system to rate each scenario's merit as a serious and useful prediction Develop an effective plan that strategically shapes the future of your organization The authors provide vivid illustrations of the Four-Measures system at work with real-world examples of both forecasting failures and successes. No one can predict perfectly, and the authors don't promise magic. With the approach described in Strategic Business Forecasting, however, you can ensure your organization is better poised to seize future opportunities, avoid pitfalls, and handle anything the increasingly volatile global economy throws your way.
Author: Steve Morlidge Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470662212 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 328
Book Description
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
Author: Jae K. Shim Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 9781574442519 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 312
Book Description
A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels. Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference. The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages. The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.
Author: Michael Gilliland Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119782473 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 435
Book Description
Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.
Author: Charles W. Chase Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118735579 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 390
Book Description
An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this guide explains demand-driven forecasting, offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. Offering a complete overview of the latest business forecasting concepts and applications, this revised Second Edition of Demand-Driven Forecasting is the perfect guide for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts. Completely updated to include the very latest concepts and methods in forecasting Includes real case studies and examples, actual data, and graphical displays and tables to illustrate how effective implementation works Ideal for CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, vice presidents of supply chain, vice presidents of demand forecasting and planning, directors of demand forecasting and planning, supply chain managers, demand planning managers, marketing analysts, forecasting analysts, financial managers, and any other professional who produces or contributes to forecasts Accurate forecasting is vital to success in today's challenging business climate. Demand-Driven Forecasting offers proven and effective insight on making sure your forecasts are right on the money.
Author: Charles W. Chase Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470531010 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 335
Book Description
Praise for Demand-Driven Forecasting A Structured Approach to Forecasting "There are authors of advanced forecasting books who take an academic approach to explaining forecast modeling that focuses on the construction of arcane algorithms and mathematical proof that are not very useful for forecasting practitioners. Then, there are other authors who take a general approach to explaining demand planning, but gloss over technical content required of modern forecasters. Neither of these approaches is well-suited for helping business forecasters critically identify the best demand data sources, effectively apply appropriate statistical forecasting methods, and properly design efficient demand planning processes. In Demand-Driven Forecasting, Chase fills this void in the literature and provides the reader with concise explanations for advanced statistical methods and credible business advice for improving ways to predict demand for products and services. Whether you are an experienced professional forecasting manager, or a novice forecast analyst, you will find this book a valuable resource for your professional development." —Daniel Kiely, Senior Manager, Epidemiology, Forecasting & Analytics, Celgene Corporation "Charlie Chase has given forecasters a clear, responsible approach for ending the timeless tug of war between the need for 'forecast rigor' and the call for greater inclusion of 'client judgment.' By advancing the use of 'domain knowledge' and hypothesis testing to enrich base-case forecasts, he has empowered professional forecasters to step up and impact their companies' business results favorably and profoundly, all the while enhancing the organizational stature of forecasters broadly." —Bob Woodard, Vice President, Global Consumer and Customer Insights, Campbell Soup Company
Author: Heino Hilbig Publisher: ISBN: 9783658353506 Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book shows how companies can develop sustainable future scenarios for their own market in order to remain successful and profitable in the future. Most of those who thought they were operating in a stable market and were prepared for crises were disabused of their conviction by the Corona pandemic. But even less dramatic influences such as technological disruption or side attacks from outside the industry are massively changing the environment of companies and demand - latest now! - a rethink. A useful guide for managing directors, executives, marketing managers and planners with helpful tips, illustrative examples and an individually adaptable template for a future workshop. This book is a translation of the original German 2nd edition Zukunftsmanagement für den Mittelstand by Heino Hilbig, published by Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature in 2020. The translation was done with the help of artificial intelligence (machine translation by the service DeepL.com). A subsequent human revision was done primarily in terms of content, so that the book will read stylistically differently from a conventional translation. Springer Nature works continuously to further the development of tools for the production of books and on the related technologies to support the authors. Contents About the inability to predict the future Typical thinking errors when planning for the future Learning from the mistakes and successes of others Rules of the game of changing markets Toolbox for the future and future workshop The Author Heino Hilbig, management consultant and keynote speaker, worked for almost 30 years in technology-driven companies, dealing with innovation management and strategies for marketing and sales. Two more of his management related books have also been published by Springer Gabler.
Author: Glen Hiemstra Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470049359 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 258
Book Description
DISCOVER THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS In Turning the Future into Revenue, Glen Hiemstra, founder of Futurist.com and noted expert on emerging business opportunities, explores how our changing world will transform private enterprise and public policy. From shifting demographics to global warming to new energy policies, change is coming. Turning the Future into Revenue shows how these new realities can be turned into profitable new ventures. Some of the topics Hiemstra discusses include: Five long-term trends you should be prepared for Global warming and the urgent need for green business Profiting from technology and energy trends Predicting the future of your business or career Hedging your bets on future business Ten key practices of the future-oriented enterprise Future planning exercises, tools, and activities Tactics for forecasting the future Shaping your career for future success
Author: Michael Gilliland Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 111922456X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 419
Book Description
A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.
Author: Simon Ramo
Author: Simon Ramo
Author: Steve Morlidge
Author: Jae K. Shim
Author: Michael Gilliland
Author: Charles W. Chase
Author: Charles W. Chase
Author: Stephen M. Millett
Author: Heino Hilbig
Author: Glen Hiemstra
Author: Michael Gilliland