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Author: Thomas E. Berghage Publisher: Xlibris Corporation ISBN: 1499049072 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 240
Book Description
Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company’s stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution. Confident in the belief that something other than chance and irrational investors determine future stock prices, several research groups around the world have started exploring the use of intelligent computer programs (programs that self-organize based on environmental feedback). Early results are very promising and have provided a glimpse of the economic forces described by Adam Smith as the invisible hand that guides economic activity. Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond describes the stock analysis problem and explores one of the more successful efforts to harness the new intelligent computer technology. Many people mistakenly classify Artificially Intelligent (AI) computer systems as a form of quantitative analysis. There are two distinct differences between advanced AI systems and traditional quantitative analysis. They are (1) who makes up the selection rules and weighting and (2) what information is used to discriminate between good- and poor-performing securities. In most quantitative systems, even in an advanced expert system form, humans make up the investment rules and mathematically derive the weightings associated with the rules. Computer systems that depend on outside human intelligence to program their actions are not inherently intelligent. In advanced AI systems, the computer makes up its own rules and weightings. The computer learns from examples of good- and poor-performing stocks and determines its own ways for discriminating between them. The procedures that are derived by the computer are often so complex that they defy human understanding. In addition to making up its own rules, advanced AI systems look at corporate financial data differently. Just like in the human brain, where information is not stored in the brain cells but rather in the connections and relationships between cells, so too is corporate performance information stored in the relationships between financial numbers. Assessing the performance of companies is not so much in the numbers as it is in the connections between the numbers. Financial analysts recognized this early on and have used first-order relational information in the form of financial ratios for many years (price/book, debt/equity, current assets / current liabilities, price/earnings, etc.). Now with advanced AI systems, we are finally able to look at and evaluate high-order interrelationships in financial data that have been far too complex to analyze with less sophisticated systems. These then are the fundamental differences between what has been used in the past and what will be used in the future. Cdr. Thomas E. Berghage
Author: Thomas E. Berghage Publisher: Xlibris Corporation ISBN: 1499049072 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 240
Book Description
Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company’s stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution. Confident in the belief that something other than chance and irrational investors determine future stock prices, several research groups around the world have started exploring the use of intelligent computer programs (programs that self-organize based on environmental feedback). Early results are very promising and have provided a glimpse of the economic forces described by Adam Smith as the invisible hand that guides economic activity. Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond describes the stock analysis problem and explores one of the more successful efforts to harness the new intelligent computer technology. Many people mistakenly classify Artificially Intelligent (AI) computer systems as a form of quantitative analysis. There are two distinct differences between advanced AI systems and traditional quantitative analysis. They are (1) who makes up the selection rules and weighting and (2) what information is used to discriminate between good- and poor-performing securities. In most quantitative systems, even in an advanced expert system form, humans make up the investment rules and mathematically derive the weightings associated with the rules. Computer systems that depend on outside human intelligence to program their actions are not inherently intelligent. In advanced AI systems, the computer makes up its own rules and weightings. The computer learns from examples of good- and poor-performing stocks and determines its own ways for discriminating between them. The procedures that are derived by the computer are often so complex that they defy human understanding. In addition to making up its own rules, advanced AI systems look at corporate financial data differently. Just like in the human brain, where information is not stored in the brain cells but rather in the connections and relationships between cells, so too is corporate performance information stored in the relationships between financial numbers. Assessing the performance of companies is not so much in the numbers as it is in the connections between the numbers. Financial analysts recognized this early on and have used first-order relational information in the form of financial ratios for many years (price/book, debt/equity, current assets / current liabilities, price/earnings, etc.). Now with advanced AI systems, we are finally able to look at and evaluate high-order interrelationships in financial data that have been far too complex to analyze with less sophisticated systems. These then are the fundamental differences between what has been used in the past and what will be used in the future. Cdr. Thomas E. Berghage
Author: Chappell Lawson Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262361337 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 401
Book Description
Drawing on two decades of government efforts to "secure the homeland," experts offer crucial strategic lessons and detailed recommendations for homeland security. For Americans, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, crystallized the notion of homeland security. But what does it mean to "secure the homeland" in the twenty-first century? What lessons can be drawn from the first two decades of U.S. government efforts to do so? In Beyond 9/11, leading academic experts and former senior government officials address the most salient challenges of homeland security today.
Author: Naomi Roht-Arriaza Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139458655 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 317
Book Description
Dealing with the aftermath of civil conflict or the fall of a repressive government continues to trouble countries throughout the world. Whereas much of the 1990s was occupied with debates concerning the relative merits of criminal prosecutions and truth commissions, by the end of the decade a consensus emerged that this either/or approach was inappropriate and unnecessary. A second generation of transitional justice experiences have stressed both truth and justice and recognize that a single method may inadequately serve societies rebuilding after conflict or dictatorship. Based on studies in ten countries, this book analyzes how some combine multiple institutions, others experiment with community-level initiatives that draw on traditional law and culture, whilst others combine internal actions with transnational or international ones. The authors argue that transitional justice efforts must also consider the challenges to legitimacy and local ownership emerging after external military intervention or occupation.
Author: Thomas Piketty Publisher: Harvard University Press ISBN: 0674979850 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 817
Book Description
What are the grand dynamics that drive the accumulation and distribution of capital? Questions about the long-term evolution of inequality, the concentration of wealth, and the prospects for economic growth lie at the heart of political economy. But satisfactory answers have been hard to find for lack of adequate data and clear guiding theories. In this work the author analyzes a unique collection of data from twenty countries, ranging as far back as the eighteenth century, to uncover key economic and social patterns. His findings transform debate and set the agenda for the next generation of thought about wealth and inequality. He shows that modern economic growth and the diffusion of knowledge have allowed us to avoid inequalities on the apocalyptic scale predicted by Karl Marx. But we have not modified the deep structures of capital and inequality as much as we thought in the optimistic decades following World War II. The main driver of inequality--the tendency of returns on capital to exceed the rate of economic growth--today threatens to generate extreme inequalities that stir discontent and undermine democratic values if political action is not taken. But economic trends are not acts of God. Political action has curbed dangerous inequalities in the past, the author says, and may do so again. This original work reorients our understanding of economic history and confronts us with sobering lessons for today.
Author: Robert R. Prechter Publisher: New Classics Library ISBN: 9781616040833 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 312
Book Description
Market Analysis for the New Millennium foreshadows sweeping changes in market analysis for the twenty-first century and beyond. Featuring ground-breaking essays by 12 authors, this book builds a compelling case and shows you the evidence that will change the way you view financial markets and market analysis.
Author: Bruce C. Greenwald Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9780471463399 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 324
Book Description
From the "guru to Wall Street's gurus" comes the fundamental techniques of value investing and their applications Bruce Greenwald is one of the leading authorities on value investing. Some of the savviest people on Wall Street have taken his Columbia Business School executive education course on the subject. Now this dynamic and popular teacher, with some colleagues, reveals the fundamental principles of value investing, the one investment technique that has proven itself consistently over time. After covering general techniques of value investing, the book proceeds to illustrate their applications through profiles of Warren Buffett, Michael Price, Mario Gabellio, and other successful value investors. A number of case studies highlight the techniques in practice. Bruce C. N. Greenwald (New York, NY) is the Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Finance and Asset Management at Columbia University. Judd Kahn, PhD (New York, NY), is a member of Morningside Value Investors. Paul D. Sonkin (New York, NY) is the investment manager of the Hummingbird Value Fund. Michael van Biema (New York, NY) is an Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of Business, Columbia University.
Author: William Burckart Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers ISBN: 1523091096 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 154
Book Description
How institutions and individuals can address complex social, financial, and environmental problems on a systemic level—and invest in a more secure future. Investment today has evolved from the basic, conventional approach of the past. Investors have come to recognize the importance of sustainable investment and are more frequently considering environmental and social factors in their decisions. Yet the complexity of the times forces us to recognize and transition to a third stage of investment practice: system-level investing. In this paradigm-shifting book, William Burckart and Steve Lydenberg show how system-level investors support and enhance the health and stability of the social, financial, and environmental systems on which they depend for long-term returns. They preserve and strengthen these fundamental systems while still generating competitive or otherwise acceptable performance. This book is for those investors who believe in that transition. They may be institutions, large or small, concerned about the long-term stability of the environment and society. They may be individual investors who want their children and grandchildren to inherit a just and sustainable world. Whoever they may be, Burckart and Lydenberg show them the what, why, and how of system-level investment in this book: what it means to manage system-level risks and rewards, why it is imperative to do so now, and how to integrate this new way of thinking into their current practice. “Burckart and Lydenberg are the Wayne Gretzkys of investing: Showing us not where investing is, but where it’s going.” —Jon Lukomnik, Managing Partner, Sinclair Capital; Senior Fellow, High Meadows Institute
Author: Bill M. Williams Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0471295418 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 292
Book Description
A powerful new way to navigate today's unprecedented market conditions "Bill Williams' pioneering application of chaos theory to the financial markets is leading technical analysis into the twenty-first century and beyond. New Trading Dimensions presents a complete, highly original, and intriguing trading method with clear, detailed illustrations, and challenging practice pages. Bill's wisdom, technical expertise, and skillful teaching style make this a revolutionary must-have new book for stock and commodity traders." -Tom Bierovic, Product Manager for User Education, Omega Research, Inc. "Bill hits the nail on the head. The essence of successful trading is a combination of knowing who you are and allowing the market to reveal its secrets. Bill Williams has the gift of explaining these concepts better than anyone I know. This is a compelling work that belongs in every trader's library." -George Angell, author, Profitable Day-Trading with Precision "Bill Williams is one of the great educators of our time. He freely shares his knowledge and experience in this inexpensive book. This book is required reading for all market technicians. The principles are sound as we have tested them with our software." -John Hill, President, Futures Truth, Co. "Bill Williams has always been an excellent teacher, taking complex terms and concepts and translating them into a clear, commonsense approach to trading. This book provides a complete trading program that reflects Bill's years of wisdom and experience in the marketplace." -Darrell Jobman, Editorial Consultant and former Editor-in-Chief of Futures magazine As today's market environment continues to change dramatically, more and more traders are discovering that traditional forecasting methods-pure technical analysis and fundamental analysis-just do not work. Sending out contradictory messages, these opposing schools of thought leave investors baffled about the future direction of the market, and consequently, at a loss as to how to tailor their trading systems. As a result, many practitioners have now turned to a new forecasting "cocktail" that combines traditional charting methodologies with chaos theory and human psychology. In this groundbreaking book, Bill Williams, a seasoned trader at the forefront of this dynamic new approach, explains exactly what it is, how it works in current stock and commodity markets, and how to use it to your advantage. Based on human nature rather than the vagaries of the market, the new trading dimension works on the premise that we trade not the market, but our own belief system. By assessing what your personal biases are, you can determine how they influence your ultimate success-or failure-and then adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Written by an expert in the field who has been featured in Futures, Worth, Success, and other prominent publications, New Trading Dimensions takes the latest in scientific knowledge about human behavior and applies it directly to the fields of stock and commodity investing and trading. With straightforward guidelines, it shows you how to adopt the right attitude toward the behavior of the market and use the right tools (ATTITOOLS) for profitable trading. Packed with practice exercises, specific applications to different types of investments, and a detailed review of important market signals, here's where you'll learn how to: * Discover what the market wants and align your own beliefs with the direction of the market * Apply chaos theory to trading and investing * Use Williams' "Market Alligator" for analyzing and profiting from the markets * Employ a multidimensional trading program that includes such tools and techniques as fractals, oscillators, AC signals, psychological zones, and balance lines * Exit trades in a timely fashion to reap high returns Drawing on the author's more than forty years of experience as both a successful trader and seasoned trainer, this invaluable guide offers a breakthrough method that has proven its ability to turn investors into consistent winners.
Author: Burton Richter Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139486721 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 244
Book Description
Global climate change is one of the most important issues humanity faces today. This book assesses the sensible, senseless and biased proposals for averting the potentially disastrous consequences of global warming, allowing the reader to draw their own conclusions on switching to more sustainable energy provision. Burton Richter is a Nobel Prize-winning scientist who has served on many US and international review committees on climate change and energy issues. He provides a concise overview of our knowledge and uncertainties within climate change science , discusses current energy demand and supply patterns, and the energy options available to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. Written in non-technical language, this book presents a balanced view of options for moving from our heavy reliance on fossil fuels into a much more sustainable energy system, and is accessible to a wide range of readers without scientific backgrounds - students, policymakers, and the concerned citizen.
Author: Thomas E. Berghage
Author: Thomas E. Berghage
Author: Chappell Lawson
Author: Naomi Roht-Arriaza
Author: Daniel C. Montano
Author: Thomas Piketty
Author: Robert R. Prechter
Author: Bruce C. Greenwald
Author: William Burckart
Author: Bill M. Williams
Author: Burton Richter