Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails PDF Download

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781544508054
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=?, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few examples:+ The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471152804
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 536

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Book Description
Destined to become a market classic, Dynamic Hedging is the only practical reference in exotic options hedgingand arbitrage for professional traders and money managers Watch the professionals. From central banks to brokerages to multinationals, institutional investors are flocking to a new generation of exotic and complex options contracts and derivatives. But the promise of ever larger profits also creates the potential for catastrophic trading losses. Now more than ever, the key to trading derivatives lies in implementing preventive risk management techniques that plan for and avoid these appalling downturns. Unlike other books that offer risk management for corporate treasurers, Dynamic Hedging targets the real-world needs of professional traders and money managers. Written by a leading options trader and derivatives risk advisor to global banks and exchanges, this book provides a practical, real-world methodology for monitoring and managing all the risks associated with portfolio management. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has held a variety of senior derivative trading positions in New York and London and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Dr. Taleb was inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall of Fame. He received an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from University Paris-Dauphine.

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House Trade
ISBN: 059324365X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 1873

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Book Description
The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin Press
ISBN: 9780141988368
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 256

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Book Description
The Logic and Statistics of Fat Tails is the definitive source on fat-tailed distribution and an essential technical read for students, accountants and those working in finance.

Author: Jayakrishnan Nair
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009062964
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 266

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Book Description
Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.

Author: Richard Von Mises
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486242145
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 273

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Book Description
This comprehensive study of probability considers the approaches of Pascal, Laplace, Poisson, and others. It also discusses Laws of Large Numbers, the theory of errors, and other relevant topics.

Author: L. E. Maistrov
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483218635
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 296

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Book Description
Probability Theory: A Historical Sketch covers the probability theory, mainly axiomatization problems. The book discusses the prehistory of the probability theory; the first stage in the development of probability theory; and the development of probability theory to the middle of the 19th century. The text also describes the probability theory in the second half of the 19th century; and the axiomatic foundations of the probability theory. Historians and mathematicians will find the book invaluable.

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 1588367673
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 369

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Book Description
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

Author: P. A. Durbin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119957524
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 347

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Book Description
Providing a comprehensive grounding in the subject of turbulence, Statistical Theory and Modeling for Turbulent Flows develops both the physical insight and the mathematical framework needed to understand turbulent flow. Its scope enables the reader to become a knowledgeable user of turbulence models; it develops analytical tools for developers of predictive tools. Thoroughly revised and updated, this second edition includes a new fourth section covering DNS (direct numerical simulation), LES (large eddy simulation), DES (detached eddy simulation) and numerical aspects of eddy resolving simulation. In addition to its role as a guide for students, Statistical Theory and Modeling for Turbulent Flows also is a valuable reference for practicing engineers and scientists in computational and experimental fluid dynamics, who would like to broaden their understanding of fundamental issues in turbulence and how they relate to turbulence model implementation. Provides an excellent foundation to the fundamental theoretical concepts in turbulence. Features new and heavily revised material, including an entire new section on eddy resolving simulation. Includes new material on modeling laminar to turbulent transition. Written for students and practitioners in aeronautical and mechanical engineering, applied mathematics and the physical sciences. Accompanied by a website housing solutions to the problems within the book.