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Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Abstract : Winter in the northern Great Lakes presents a suite of challenging conditions for animals, in terms of limited food availability and increased energetic cost of locomotion and thermoregulation. Variable winter severity is liable to cause interannual fluctuations in habitat viability and use by animals, in addition to modulating physiological responses in animals to conserve energy. For example, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) congregate at high densities under eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) or northern white-cedar (Thuja occidentalis) stands, which provide forage, thermal cover, reduced snow depth, and enhanced vigilance. However, a suite of climatic, edaphic, and management changes, in addition to novel deer densities, have compromised regeneration of eastern hemlock in recent years, while facilitating the propagation of hardwoods. For this research, I monitored 39 randomly selected eastern hemlock stands across the western Upper Peninsula. I selected a subset of 15 of these stands to survey for forest community composition and assess changes between 2006 and 2015, and found evidence of a transition to hardwoods such as maple (Acer rubrum and A. saccharum). This change in forest composition will have significant implications for migratory white-tailed deer, particularly when coupled with more extreme winter conditions predicted to occur with climate change. I monitored local deer use in all 39 stands from winter 2014-15 to 2017-2018, building on a dataset extending back to winter 2005-2006, by counting fecal pellet groups in each stand, and found evidence of reduced use following recent severe winters, as well as a spatial shift in intensity of use. I assessed diet composition by collecting fecal samples during spring pellet surveys, and found evidence of spatial variability in the diet, likely due to spatiotemporal variation in winter severity. To further understand the physiological implications of winter severity and winter diet, I assessed physiological stress response (via non-invasive fecal glucocorticoids) and found evidence of endocrine down-regulation in animals with a poor diet and in extreme conditions. My findings underscore the importance of maintaining a mesic conifer component in northern forests to provide winter habitat for regional migratory deer populations.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Abstract : Winter in the northern Great Lakes presents a suite of challenging conditions for animals, in terms of limited food availability and increased energetic cost of locomotion and thermoregulation. Variable winter severity is liable to cause interannual fluctuations in habitat viability and use by animals, in addition to modulating physiological responses in animals to conserve energy. For example, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) congregate at high densities under eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) or northern white-cedar (Thuja occidentalis) stands, which provide forage, thermal cover, reduced snow depth, and enhanced vigilance. However, a suite of climatic, edaphic, and management changes, in addition to novel deer densities, have compromised regeneration of eastern hemlock in recent years, while facilitating the propagation of hardwoods. For this research, I monitored 39 randomly selected eastern hemlock stands across the western Upper Peninsula. I selected a subset of 15 of these stands to survey for forest community composition and assess changes between 2006 and 2015, and found evidence of a transition to hardwoods such as maple (Acer rubrum and A. saccharum). This change in forest composition will have significant implications for migratory white-tailed deer, particularly when coupled with more extreme winter conditions predicted to occur with climate change. I monitored local deer use in all 39 stands from winter 2014-15 to 2017-2018, building on a dataset extending back to winter 2005-2006, by counting fecal pellet groups in each stand, and found evidence of reduced use following recent severe winters, as well as a spatial shift in intensity of use. I assessed diet composition by collecting fecal samples during spring pellet surveys, and found evidence of spatial variability in the diet, likely due to spatiotemporal variation in winter severity. To further understand the physiological implications of winter severity and winter diet, I assessed physiological stress response (via non-invasive fecal glucocorticoids) and found evidence of endocrine down-regulation in animals with a poor diet and in extreme conditions. My findings underscore the importance of maintaining a mesic conifer component in northern forests to provide winter habitat for regional migratory deer populations.
Author: Jefferson D. Wright Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 152
Book Description
Severe winter weather is something that impacts everyone in some way, and there are always questions regarding how severe a winter season has been and how external factors can influence the severity of winter. Characteristics of severe winter weather include large snowfall accumulations, persistent snow depths, extreme cold temperatures, or extended cold snaps, and the Midwest United States is subject to these conditions on a multitude of spatial and temporal scales. A method of quantifying the severity of winter known as the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) has been employed for this study, and utilizes daily records of the aforementioned winter severity characteristics to generate a value that can represent how severe an individual winter season has been, as well as the long term average winter severity for a given location. The variability in Midwest winter severity has been a topic of many previous studies, but a study regarding the long term changes as well as the drivers of winter severity with respect to the AWSSI has not been accomplished. Using daily records of snowfall, snow depth, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, the goal of this study is to use the AWSSI to quantify these long term changes and impacts of different teleconnection phases on Midwest winter severity. The teleconnection patterns explored in this study include the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific-Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. The analysis is divided into three phases consisting of (1) establishing a general winter climatology within the study area, (2) determining the long term changes in winter severity and the associated parameters, and (3) examining the impacts of teleconnection patterns on the inter-annual variability in Midwest winter severity.
Author: Adrienne M. Marshall Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 330
Book Description
Throughout the western United States, seasonal snowpack is critical for water resources timing and availability and ecosystem function. Warming temperatures associated with climate change reduce snow accumulation and advance melt timing, with serious consequences for snow-dependent social and ecological systems. While many impacts of climate change on snowpack are well established, this dissertation investigates several elements of changing snowpack that have not been previously assessed. In particular, each chapter contributes to an improved understanding of the changing heterogeneity of snow under climate change. The first chapter tests the sensitivity of snow drifting to altered climate, using a physically-based hydrologic model and thirty years of hydroclimatological data at a site where aspen stands are subsidized by a wind-driven snow drift. We find a warming-induced reduction in snow drifting, increase in ecohydrologic homogeneity across the landscape, and altered interannual variability of hydrologic metrics. The second chapter assesses changes in interannual variability of snowpack magnitude and timing across the western United States, using downscaled global climate model data as forcing to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We find that changes in interannual variability are spatially heterogeneous across the western U.S., but that interannual variability of annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE[max]) decreases in regions transitioning from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation regimes. Changes in the date of SWE[max] are less spatially coherent, but agreement between general circulation models (GCMs) is most reliably found at relatively warm sites where the date of SWE[max] variability increases. The third chapter assesses another element of snow heterogeneity by testing the effect of snowfall intensity on winter ablation. Using a statistical modeling approach with observational snow data, we find that higher snowfall intensity is associated with reduced winter ablation; projected changes in snowfall intensity will likely exacerbate warming-induced increases in winter ablation in the maritime mountains of the western U.S. and mitigate it in the cooler continental regions. Finally, a fourth interdisciplinary, collaborative chapter synthesizes research on climate change in the mountainous headwaters of the Columbia River Basin. Findings show that research in this basin is focused on climate change impacts, rather than adaptation or mitigation, that social and biophysical sciences are not well integrated, and that research priorities differ across an international boundary. Cumulatively, this set of studies advances knowledge of how the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of snowpack will respond to climate change in the western United States, with implications for snow-dependent social and ecological systems.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
Regions that have experienced recent successive cold winters such as the Northeast of North America and Siberia have endured critical social and economic impacts from anomalous low temperatures in recent years, despite warming global temperatures. It is well known that the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV), or jet stream, is a primary influence on many mid-latitude winter weather patterns. However, the strong circumpolar westerlies that maximize at around 60° latitude just above the tropopause, known as the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), can affect tropospheric circulation and thus winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Strong upward propagating waves can affect the geographic extent and strength of the SPV resulting in a weakened polar vortex state, which can in turn bring persistent weather events to the mid-latitudes. Here, an index of SPV spatiotemporal variability is presented using observation based analysis of zonal wind and geopotential height to show changes in SPV behavior at a seasonal scale from 1950-2018. Utilizing the CMIP5 suite of global climate models, historical and projected simulations of the SPV's climatological extent and strength are analyzed from 1915 to the end of this century, taking into account models with enhanced stratospheric representation. Simulated results are largely consistent with trends in the observational data, which suggest continued increases in average SPV size throughout this century. If future SPV disturbances increase in frequency, there could be negative impacts in ecosystem and agricultural health, infrastructure damage, and to human safety. A more advanced understanding of SPV trends and anomalous events could improve forecasts of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and severe or persistent winter weather.
Author: Ahmed Mohammed Hussain El Kenawy Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0323859259 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 477
Book Description
Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Middle East and North Africa: Assessment, Attribution and Socioeconomic Impacts focuses on assessing the current situation of hydroclimatic extremes in the MENA region, with particular emphasis on dry and wet extreme events. The results of the rapidly changing atmospheric and oceanic situations of these extremes will be addressed, presenting examples for the environmental, socioeconomic, and cultural impacts of these events in the region and evaluating the current ability to monitor and adapt to such events, as well as exploring the potential use of advanced geospatial techniques in improving current understanding of these extreme events.The book utilizes a multidisciplinary approach with various state-of-the-art methods, approaches, and analytical techniques in environmental, meteorological, and hydrological sciences, providing case studies from the Middle East and North Africa. It will provide a solid basis for scientists to assess the validation of several research methods in the region and may be applicable to other regions as climate change continues to cause increasing aridity worldwide. The case studies presented will reflect the multifaceted character of hydrometeorological extremes in the region, with representative examples for the environmental, socioeconomic, and cultural impacts of climate change. Therefore, this book is a valuable source for climatologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, geographers, and water resources scientists. - Thoroughly details the effects of climate variability in the Middle East and North Africa, a hotspot region of climate change vulnerability - Examines changes in hydroclimatic extremes at different spatial scales, ranging from local assessments to investigations that cover the entire region - Provides a comprehensive assessment of hydrometeorological feedback to current and future climate change in the MENA region - Fills the current gap in the literature concerning the response of arid and semiarid regions to climate change, with particular emphasis on the MENA region
Author: Noel Cressie Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119243041 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 612
Book Description
Winner of the 2013 DeGroot Prize. A state-of-the-art presentation of spatio-temporal processes, bridging classic ideas with modern hierarchical statistical modeling concepts and the latest computational methods Noel Cressie and Christopher K. Wikle, are also winners of the 2011 PROSE Award in the Mathematics category, for the book “Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data” (2011), published by John Wiley and Sons. (The PROSE awards, for Professional and Scholarly Excellence, are given by the Association of American Publishers, the national trade association of the US book publishing industry.) Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data has now been reprinted with small corrections to the text and the bibliography. The overall content and pagination of the new printing remains the same; the difference comes in the form of corrections to typographical errors, editing of incomplete and missing references, and some updated spatio-temporal interpretations. From understanding environmental processes and climate trends to developing new technologies for mapping public-health data and the spread of invasive-species, there is a high demand for statistical analyses of data that take spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal information into account. Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data presents a systematic approach to key quantitative techniques that incorporate the latest advances in statistical computing as well as hierarchical, particularly Bayesian, statistical modeling, with an emphasis on dynamical spatio-temporal models. Cressie and Wikle supply a unique presentation that incorporates ideas from the areas of time series and spatial statistics as well as stochastic processes. Beginning with separate treatments of temporal data and spatial data, the book combines these concepts to discuss spatio-temporal statistical methods for understanding complex processes. Topics of coverage include: Exploratory methods for spatio-temporal data, including visualization, spectral analysis, empirical orthogonal function analysis, and LISAs Spatio-temporal covariance functions, spatio-temporal kriging, and time series of spatial processes Development of hierarchical dynamical spatio-temporal models (DSTMs), with discussion of linear and nonlinear DSTMs and computational algorithms for their implementation Quantifying and exploring spatio-temporal variability in scientific applications, including case studies based on real-world environmental data Throughout the book, interesting applications demonstrate the relevance of the presented concepts. Vivid, full-color graphics emphasize the visual nature of the topic, and a related FTP site contains supplementary material. Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data is an excellent book for a graduate-level course on spatio-temporal statistics. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of applied mathematics, engineering, and the environmental and health sciences.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309467578 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 717
Book Description
We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.
Author: Jacques C. J. Nihoul Publisher: Elsevier Publishing Company ISBN: Category : Electronic books Languages : en Pages : 800
Book Description
The exchange of momentum, heat, moisture, gases (such as CO 2 and O 2 ) and salt between the atmosphere and the ocean is a phenomenon of paramount importance for the dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean. With the pressing need for reliable climate forecast (e.g. to deal with severe food and energy problems) interactive ocean-atmosphere models have become one of the main objectives of geophysical fluid dynamics. This volume provides the first state-of-the-art review of interactive ocean-atmosphere modelling and its application to climates. The papers are by active and eminent scientists from different countries and different disciplines. They provide a up-to-date survey of major recent discoveries and valuable recommendations for future research."
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Author: Jefferson D. Wright
Author: Per Gloersen
Author: Adrienne M. Marshall
Author: Laura Ingalls Wilder
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Author: Ahmed Mohammed Hussain El Kenawy
Author: Noel Cressie
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: Jacques C. J. Nihoul