Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors and Predictability of South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts PDF Download

Author: Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 54

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Book Description

Author: Ching-Hua Lo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814355313
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 129

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Book Description
This invaluable volume set of Advances in Geosciences continues the excellent tradition of the Asia-Oceania scientific community in providing the most up-to-date research results on a wide range of geosciences and environmental science. The information is vital to the understanding of the effects of climate change, extreme weathers on the most populated regions and fastest moving economies in the world. Besides, these volumes also highlight original papers from many prestigious research institutions which are conducting cutting edge studies in atmospheric physics, hydrological science and water resource, ocean science and coastal study, planetary exploration and solar system science, seismology, tsunamis, upper atmospheric physics and space science.

Author: Shailendra Rai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Error analysis (Mathematics)
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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Author:
Publisher: ScholarlyEditions
ISBN: 1464920818
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 1094

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Book Description
Advances in Climate Change and Global Warming Research and Application: 2011 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ eBook that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Climate Change and Global Warming. The editors have built Advances in Climate Change and Global Warming Research and Application: 2011 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Climate Change and Global Warming in this eBook to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Advances in Climate Change and Global Warming Research and Application: 2011 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Author: Xiaogu Zhang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric circulation
Languages : en
Pages : 78

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Author: V. Krishnamurthy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric circulation
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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Author: Siraj Ul Islam
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monsoons
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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"This research thesis first examines the ability of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and Community Climate System Model (CCSM) in simulating the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) summer precipitation in a framework of ensemble. On this basis, the climatic relevant singular vectors (CSVs) perturbation theory is applied to investigate the optimal error growth of SAM seasonal forecast due to the uncertainties in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Then, the ensemble prediction of SAM constructed by CSVs is evaluated, and further compared with one traditional ensemble method. It is found that CAM4 adequately simulated monsoon precipitation, and considerably reduced systematic errors that occurred in its predecessors, although it tends to overestimate monsoon precipitation when compared with observations. In terms of monsoon interannual variability and its teleconnection with sea surface temperature (SST), CAM4 showed modest skill. In the CCSM4 coupled simulations, several aspects of the monsoon simulation are improved, including the cross-variability of simulated precipitation and SST. A significant improvement is seen in the spatial distribution of monsoon mean climatology where a too-heavy monsoon precipitation, which occurred in CAM4, is rectified. A detailed investigation of precipitation reduction, using sensitivity experiments, showed that the large systematic cold SST errors in the northern Indian Ocean reduces monsoon precipitation and delays the monsoon onset by weakening local evaporation. The CSV analysis using CAM4 revealed that the SST uncertainties in Indian Ocean can result in much larger error growth of SAM seasonal forecast than those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is seen that the CSVs error growth rate changes significantly depending on the initial states whereas the CSVs patterns are insensitive to the initial conditions. The CAM4 comparison with CCSM4 coupled model indicated that the CSVs patterns from CAM4 are similar to those from CCSM4 while the error growth rate is lower in CAM4 than in CCSM4. CAM4 ensemble hindcasts, constructed using CSVs method and Time Lag Ensemble (TLE) method, for the period from 2000-2009, showed that the ensemble mean prediction by CSVs has a better skill than both TLE and control run prediction, indicating the merit of CSV for SAM ensemble forecast. Overall, this thesis research has theoretical significance in understanding the uncertainties of SAM seasonal predictions and practical importance in developing a new ensemble method for SAM seasonal predictions."--Leaves ii-iii.

Author: Vasubandhu Misra
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monsoons
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description

Author: Chih-pei Chang
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814460680
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 609

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Book Description
This book presents a current review of the science of monsoon research and forecasting. The contents are based on the invited reviews presented at the World Meteorological Organization's Fourth International Workshop on Monsoons in late 2008, with subsequent manuscripts revised from 2009 to early 2010. The book builds on the concept that the monsoons in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. The topics covered include all major monsoon regions and time scales (mesoscale, synoptic, intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and climate change). It is intended to provide an updated comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge, modeling capability, and future directions in the research of monsoon systems around the world.

Author: Bin Wang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540406105
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 906

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Book Description
This is a timely, interdisciplinary scientific overview of the atmosphere, the ocean and the land surface as it interacts with physical, chemical and biological processes. The high level of detail sets it apart from other studies of monsoon meteorology. The text includes analysis of paleoclimate records, human influences on the monsoon climate and the economic impacts of the monsoon on economies and to human health.