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Sovereign Default and Liquidity Risks in the Bond and CDS Markets
Author: Sovereign Default and Liquidity Risks in the Bond and CDS Markets
Author: Saad BadaouiLiquidity Spillovers in Sovereign Bond and CDS Markets
Author: Giovanni CalicePublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
Book Description
At the end of 2009, countries in the Eurozone began to experience a sudden divergence of bond yields as the perceived prospect of sovereign default risk increased. This paper examines the potential spillovers between the liquidity of the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market and the liquidity of the sovereign bond market for a group of Eurozone countries. Empirically, we consider the differential spread on various Eurozone members sovereign bonds over the equivalent German benchmark. Using a unique dataset, constructed from the tick by tick transaction history from the 5-10 year maturity of the sovereign bond and CDS markets, we find that for countries such as Portugal, Spain and Ireland, the CDS market reveals a growing influence on bond yields post 2009. We provide substantial evidence that Greek sovereign CDS spreads and debt spreads do not exhibit the same time varying correlative patterns. Furthermore, we suggest that CDS spreads and bond credit spreads for Greek debt have correctly priced the default risk and that the trend patterns observed have not been substantially affected by changes in the liquidity profiles of either market. On a general note, we show that the bond yield liquidity spreads have increased substantially over the 2007-2010 period whilst CDS liquidity spreads have fallen dramatically. For some countries, such as Portugal, liquidity risk plays an important role in the sovereign bond market.
Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'AricciaPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484359623
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Book Description
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Sovereign Debt
Author: Rob QuailPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118017552
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 435
Book Description
An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.
Credit Default Swaps
Author: Marti SubrahmanyamPublisher: Now Publishers
ISBN: 9781601989000
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.
Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk
Author: Mr.Emre AlperPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463931867
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
Book Description
We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RAS) spreads. Cointegration analysis suggests the existence of an imperfect market arbitrage relationship between the cash (RAS) and the derivatives (CDS) markets, with price discovery taking place in the latter. Likewise, panel regressions aimed at uncovering the fundamental drivers of the two indicators show that the CDS market, although less liquid, has provided a better signal for sovereign credit risk during the period of the recent financial crisis.
Sovereign Default Risk Valuation
Author: Jochen AndritzkyPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540374493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 261
Book Description
Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.
A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks
Author: Thordur JonassonPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484350545
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 133
Book Description
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises
Author: Mr.Jorge A. Chan-LauPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451852916
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
Book Description
In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.