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Author: Mr. Serkan Arslanalp Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 43
Book Description
We use a new, comprehensive data set on the sovereign debt investor base to document three novel empirical facts: (i) sovereign debt is repatriated - that is, shifted from external private to domestic investors - prior to sovereign defaults; (ii) not all crises are equal: evidence for repatriation during banking and currency crises is more limited; and (iii) the nature of defaults matters: external investors do not leave during preemptive debt restructurings. We further show that repatriation appears to be prevalent when defaults happen in large markets with low capital controls. The data set we use is uniquely suited to analyzing investor base dynamics during rare crises due to its large cross-section and time series, covering 180 countries from 1989 to 2020.
Author: Mr. Serkan Arslanalp Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 43
Book Description
We use a new, comprehensive data set on the sovereign debt investor base to document three novel empirical facts: (i) sovereign debt is repatriated - that is, shifted from external private to domestic investors - prior to sovereign defaults; (ii) not all crises are equal: evidence for repatriation during banking and currency crises is more limited; and (iii) the nature of defaults matters: external investors do not leave during preemptive debt restructurings. We further show that repatriation appears to be prevalent when defaults happen in large markets with low capital controls. The data set we use is uniquely suited to analyzing investor base dynamics during rare crises due to its large cross-section and time series, covering 180 countries from 1989 to 2020.
Author: Paolo Manasse Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451875258 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
Author: Ms.Carmen Reinhart Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475553773 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 21
Book Description
Even after one of the most severe multi-year crises on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The current phase of the official policy approach is predicated on the assumption that debt sustainability can be achieved through a mix of austerity, forbearance and growth. The claim is that advanced countries do not need to resort to the standard toolkit of emerging markets, including debt restructurings and conversions, higher inflation, capital controls and other forms of financial repression. As we document, this claim is at odds with the historical track record of most advanced economies, where debt restructuring or conversions, financial Repression, and a tolerance for higher inflation, or a combination of these were an integral part of the resolution of significant past debt overhangs.
Author: Vinod K. Aggarwal Publisher: Chatham House (Formerly Riia) ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 312
Book Description
This work examines the ongoing debate on resolving sovereign debt defaults and alleviating the debt burden of heavily indebted poor countries. Concentrating primarily on the period from the 1982 and focusing on money owed to both the public and the private sector, the volume examines the origins of debt crises, rescheduling tactics, and efforts to create a more enduring solution to the problem of coping with debt, as well as its efficacy. Policy recommendations are put forward for dealing with the onerous problem of debt default and rescheduling.
Author: Mr.Francisco Roch Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475533241 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the minimal actuarially fair intervention that guarantees the no-buyers-strike fundamental equilibrium, relying on the market for residual financing. The intervention makes it cheaper for governments to borrow, inducing them borrow more, leaving default probabilities possibly rather unchanged. The maximal backstop will be pulled precisely when fundamentals worsen.
Author: Ms.Julianne Ams Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN: 9781484371329 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 22
Book Description
“The IMF’s Role in the Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises” provides a guided narrative to the IMF’s policy papers on sovereign debt produced over the last 40 years. The papers are divided into chapters, tracking four historical phases: the 1980s debt crisis; the Mexican crisis and the design of policies to ensure adequate private sector involvement (“creditor bail-in”); the Argentine crisis and the search for a durable crisis resolution framework; and finally, the global financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, and their aftermaths.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498329888 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 32
Author: Chris Jochnick Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0190290579 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 336
Book Description
Recent world events have created a compelling need for new perspectives and realistic solutions to the problem of sovereign debt. The success of the Jubilee 2000 movement in raising public awareness of the devastating effects of debt, coupled with the highly publicized Bono/O'Neill tour of Africa, and the spectacular default and economic implosion of Argentina have helped spur a global debate over debt. A growing chorus of globalization critics, galvanized by the Catholic Church's demand for forgiveness and bolstered by recent defaults, has put debt near the top of the international agenda. Creditor governments and international financial institutions have belatedly recognized the need for more sustainable progress on debt as an inescapable step towards economic recovery in many parts of the world. This book is intended to advance the dialogue around these issues by providing a comprehensive overview of the problems raised by debt and describing new and practical approaches to overcoming them. It will be the first in more than a decade to bring together under one cover the voices of prominent members of the international debt community. It will include pieces from the most relevant constituencies: from creditors (the IMF/World Bank, government lenders, private investors) to critics (debtor representatives, activists, and academics) and analysis from economists, bankers, lawyers, social scientists, and politicians. As contributions come from such leading thinkers across a range of disciplines, this book will offer a timely guide for understanding and influencing the debt debate.
Author: J. Stiglitz Publisher: Springer ISBN: 1137411481 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 338
Book Description
This volume provides a pluralistic discussion from world-renowned scholars on the international aspects of the debt crisis and prospects for resolution. It provides a comprehensive evaluation of how the debt crisis has impacted Western Europe, the emerging markets and Latin America, and puts forward different suggestions for recovery.
Author: Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
Author: Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
Author: Paolo Manasse
Author: Ms.Carmen Reinhart
Author: Vinod K. Aggarwal
Author: Juan Pablo Bohoslavsky
Author: Mr.Francisco Roch
Author: Ms.Julianne Ams
Author: International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Author: Chris Jochnick
Author: J. Stiglitz