Author: Timothy N. StockdalePublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Simulation and Prediction of Tropical SST with a Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Model
Simulation and Prediction of Tropical SST with a Coupled Ocean-atmospheric Model
Author: Timothy N. StockdalePublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Ocean circulation
Languages : en
Pages : 482
Book Description
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models
Author: J.C.J. NihoulPublisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080870783
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 793
Book Description
The exchange of momentum, heat, moisture, gases (such as CO2 and O2) and salt between the atmosphere and the ocean is a phenomenon of paramount importance for the dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean. With the pressing need for reliable climate forecast (e.g. to deal with severe food and energy problems) interactive ocean-atmosphere models have become one of the main objectives of geophysical fluid dynamics. This volume provides the first state-of-the-art review of interactive ocean-atmosphere modelling and its application to climates. The papers are by active and eminent scientists from different countries and different disciplines. They provide a up-to-date survey of major recent discoveries and valuable recommendations for future research.
Atmosphere-ocean Modeling: Coupling And Couplers
Author: Carlos Roberto MechosoPublisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811232954
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 203
Book Description
Coupled atmosphere-ocean models are at the core of numerical climate models. There is an extraordinarily broad class of coupled atmosphere-ocean models ranging from sets of equations that can be solved analytically to highly detailed representations of Nature requiring the most advanced computers for execution. The models are applied to subjects including the conceptual understanding of Earth's climate, predictions that support human activities in a variable climate, and projections aimed to prepare society for climate change. The present book fills a void in the current literature by presenting a basic and yet rigorous treatment of how the models of the atmosphere and the ocean are put together into a coupled system. The text of the book is divided into chapters organized according to complexity of the components that are coupled. Two full chapters are dedicated to current efforts on the development of generalist couplers and coupling methodologies all over the world.
GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate
Author: National Research CouncilPublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309051800
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Book Description
This book lays out a science plan for a major, international, 15-year research program. The past 10 years have seen significant progress in studies of short-term climate variations, in particular for the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Some forecast skill with lead times as long as a year in advance has already been developed and put to use. The GOALS program plans to capitalize on this progress by expanding efforts on observations and seasonal-to-interannual predictions to the remainder of the tropics and to higher latitudes.
Simulation and Prediction of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature
Author: Fabian LienertPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
The first part of this thesis is an assessment of the ability of global climate models to reproduce observed features of the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The simulations from 13 global climate models I am analyzing were performed under phase 3 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3). In particular, I am investigating whether these climate models capture tropical influences on the PDO, and the influences of the PDO on North American surface temperature and precipitation. My results are that 1) the models as group produce a realistic pattern of the PDO. The simulated variance of the PDO index is overestimated by roughly 30%. 2)The tropical influence on North Pacific SSTs is biased systematically in these models. The simulated response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is delayed compared to the observed response. This tendency is consistent with model biases toward deeper oceanic mixed layers in winter and spring and weaker air-sea feedbacks in the winter half-year. Model biases in mixed layer depths and air-sea feedbacks are also associated with a model mean ENSO-related signal in the North Pacific whose amplitude is overestimated by roughly 30%. Finally, model power spectra of the PDO signal and its ENSO-forced component are?redder? than observed due to errors originating in the tropics and extratropics. 3) The models are quite successful at capturing the influence of both the tropical Pacific related and the extratropical part of the PDO on North American surface temperature. 4) The models capture some of the influence of the PDO on North American precipitation mainly due to its tropical Pacific related part. In the second part of this thesis, I investigate the ability of one such coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, carefully initialized with observations, to dynamically predict the future evolution of the PDO on seasonal to decadal time scales. I am using forecasts produced by the Canadian climate data assimilation and prediction system employing the Canadian climate model CanCM3 for seasonal (CHFP2) and CanCM4 for decadal (DHFP1) predictions. The skill of this system in predicting the future evolution of the PDO index is then inferred from a set of historical?forecasts? called hindcasts. In this manner, hindcasts are issued over the past 30 years (seasonal), or over the past 50 years (decadal) when they can be verified against the observed historical evolution of the PDO index. I find that 1) CHFP2 is successful at predicting the PDO at the seasonal timescale measured by mean-square skill score and correlation skill. Weather?noise? unpredictable at the seasonal time scale generated by substantial North Pacific stormtrack activity that coincides with a shallow oceanic mixed layer in May and June appear to pose a prediction barrier for the PDO. PDO skill therefore depends on the start season of the forecast. PDO skill also varies as a function of the target month. Variations in North Pacific storminess appear to impact PDO skill by means of a lagged response of the ocean mixed layer to weather noise. In CHFP2, times of increasing North Pacific storm track activity are followed by times of reduced PDO skill, while the North Pacific midwinter suppression of storm track ...
Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Atlantic in the Absence of an Annual Cycle
Author: Susan Carr BatesPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Ocean currents
Languages : en
Pages : 60
Book Description
El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation
Author: S. George PhilanderPublisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0080570984
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 309
Book Description
El Nino and the Southern Oscillation is by far the most striking phenomenon caused by the interplay of ocean and atmosphere. It can be explained neither in strictly oceanographic nor strictly meteorological terms. This volume provides a brief history of the subject, summarizes the oceanographic and meteorological observations and theories, and discusses the recent advances in computer modeling studies of the phenomenon. - Includes a comprehensive and up-to-date research survey - Discusses in detail sophisticated computer models - Provides a clear exposition of the major problems which prevent more accurate predictions of El Nino
Simulation of a Synchronously Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Prediction Model
Author: Peter Joshua RoveroPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Meteorology
Languages : en
Pages : 98
Book Description
The purpose of this research is to explore the need for time-dependent sea-surface temperatures in atmospheric model predictions to 10 days. Six and nine-layer versions of the Navy Operational Global Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study. Control forecasts were made in which the sea-surface temperature (SST) is fixed in time. Test hindcasts were made in which the SST was updated at each time step of the atmospheric model using interpolations of 12-hourly SST analyses. The 10-day predictions are compared to determine any improvement or degradation due to the time-dependent SST. Two cases are analyzed, one during November 1983 and another during April 1984. Use of time-dependent SST's resulted in significant changes in the forecast fields of surface heat fluxes and precipitation which were physically consistent with the SST trend. Analysis of 15 storm forecasts revealed significant changes in storm track duration or cyclogenesis in only 4 cases. Three of these cases were forecast by the nine-layer version of NOGAPS during the April period and one case was forecast by the six-layer NOCAPS during the November period. Originator-supplied keywords include: Atmosphere-ocean coupled models, Sea surface temperature, NOGAPS, and T-EOTS.
A Comparison of Climate Prediction and Simulation Over Tropical Pacific
Author: Vasubandhu MisraPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Book Description