Selected Forecasts, Part 1 PDF Download

Author: Albert E. Klais
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Traffic estimation
Languages : en
Pages : 88

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Author: William Albert Hyman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Traffic estimation
Languages : en
Pages : 172

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Book Description

Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380

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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Author: United States. Hydrographic Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 100

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Book Description

Author: Corinna Möhrlen
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0443186820
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 390

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Book Description
Published as an Open Access book available on Science Direct, IEA Wind Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions translates decades of academic knowledge and standard requirements into applicable procedures and decision support tools for the energy industry. Designed specifically for practitioners in the energy industry, readers will find the tools to maximize the value of renewable energy forecast information in operational decision-making applications and significantly reduce the costs of integrating large amounts of wind and solar generation assets into grid systems through more efficient management of the renewable generation variability. Authored by a group of international experts as part of the IEA Wind Task 36 (Wind Energy Forecasting), the book addresses the issue that many current operational forecast solutions are not properly optimized for their intended applications. It provides detailed guidelines and recommended practices on forecast solution selection processes, designing and executing forecasting benchmarks and trials, forecast solution evaluation, verification, and validation, and meteorological and power data requirements for real-time forecasting applications. In addition, the guidelines integrate probabilistic forecasting, integrate wind and solar forecasting, offer improved IT data exchange and data format standards, and have a dedicated section to dealing with the requirements for SCADA and meteorological measurements. A unique and comprehensive reference, IEA Wind Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions is an essential guide for all practitioners involved in wind and solar energy generation forecasting from forecast vendors to end-users of renewable forecasting solutions. Brings together the decades-long expertise of authors from a range of backgrounds, including universities and government laboratories, commercial forecasters, and operational forecast end-users into a single comprehensive set of practices Addresses all areas of wind power forecasting, including forecasting methods, measurement selection, setup and data quality control, and the evaluation of forecasting processes related to renewable energy forecasting Provides purpose-built decision-support tools, process diagrams, and code examples to help readers visualize and navigate the book and support decision-making

Author: David E. Rapach
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1849505403
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 700

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Book Description
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Water
Languages : en
Pages : 976

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Author: Donald M. Fuquay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Lightning
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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Book Description

Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691140138
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 566

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Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Author: Rob Hyndman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540719180
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 362

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Book Description
Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.