Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America Using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model California's Carbon Challenge Phase II PDF Download
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Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to the present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was installed on some gas plants by 2050.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to the present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was installed on some gas plants by 2050.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.
Author: International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA Publisher: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) ISBN: 9292602500 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 344
Book Description
This outlook highlights climate-safe investment options until 2050, policies for transition and specific regional challenges. It also explores options to eventually cut emissions to zero.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 14
Book Description
California is at the forefront of addressing the challenges involved in redesigning its energy infrastructure to meet 2050 GHG reduction goals, but CCUS commercialization lags in California as it does elsewhere. It is unclear why this is the case given the state's forefront position in aggressive climate change policy. The intent of this paper is to examine the factors that may explain why CCUS has not advanced as rapidly as other GHG emissions mitigation technologies in California and identify ways by which CCUS commercialization may be advanced in the context of California's future energy infrastructure. CCUS has application to reduce GHG emissions from the power, industrial and transportation sectors in the state. Efficiency, use of renewable energy or nuclear generation to replace fossil fuels, use of lower or no-net-carbon feedstocks (such as biomass), and use of CCUS on fossil fuel generation are the main options, but California has fewer options for making the deep cuts in CO2 emissions within the electricity sector to meet 2050 goals. California is already the most efficient of all 50 states as measured by electricity use per capita, and, while further efficiency measures can reduce per capita consumption, increasing population is still driving electricity demand upwards. A 1976 law prevents building any new nuclear plants until a federal high-level nuclear waste repository is approved. Most all in-state electricity generation already comes from natural gas; although California does plan to eliminate electricity imports from out-of-state coal-fired generation. Thus, the two options with greatest potential to reduce in-state power sector CO2 emissions are replacing fossil with renewable generation or employing CCUS on natural gas power plants. Although some scenarios call on California to transition its electricity sector to 100 percent renewables, it is unclear how practical this approach is given the intermittency of renewable generation, mismatches between peak generation times and demand times, and the rate of progress in developing technologies for large-scale power storage. Vehicles must be electrified or move to biofuels or zero-carbon fuels in order to decarbonize the transportation sector. These options transfer the carbon footprint of transportation to other sectors: the power sector in the case of electric vehicles and the industrial and agricultural sectors in the case of biofuels or zero-carbon fuels. Thus, the underlying presumption to achieve overall carbon reductions is that the electricity used by vehicles does not raise the carbon emissions of the power sector: biofuel feedstock growth, harvest, and processing uses low carbon energy or production of fuels from fossil feedstocks employs CCUS. This results in future transportation sector energy derived solely from renewables, biomass, or fossil fuel point sources utilizing CCUS. In the industrial sector, the largest contributors to GHG emissions are transportation fuel refineries and cement plants. Emissions from refineries come from on-site power generation and hydrogen plants; while fuel mixes can be changed to reduce the GHG emissions from processing and renewable sources can be used to generate power, total decarbonization requires use of CCUS. Similarly, for cement plants, power generation may use carbon-free feedstocks instead of fossil fuels, but CO2 emissions associated with the manufacture of cement products must be dealt with through CCUS. Of course, another option for these facilities is the purchase of offsets to create a zero-emissions plant.
Author: United States. Department of Energy. Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Clean Energy Technologies Publisher: DIANE Publishing ISBN: 1428918442 Category : Energy development Languages : en Pages : 371
Author: Energy Information Administration (U S ) Publisher: Government Printing Office ISBN: 9780160912672 Category : Energy conservation Languages : en Pages : 256
Book Description
"The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2012 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. But AEO2012 is not limited to the Reference case. It also includes 29 alternative cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy. Many of the implications of the alternative cases are discussed in the 'Issues in focus' section of this report. / Key results highlighted in AEO2012 include continued modest growth in demand for energy over the next 25 years and increased domestic crude oil and natural gas production, largely driven by rising production from tight oil and shale resources. As a result, U.S. reliance on imported oil is reduced; domestic production of natural gas exceeds consumption, allowing for net exports; a growing share of U.S. electric power generation is met with natural gas and renewables; and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level from 2010 to 2035, even in the absence of new Federal policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions."--Executive Summary (p. 2).
Author: Michael Gerrard Publisher: ISBN: 9781585761975 Category : Carbon dioxide mitigation Languages : en Pages : 1056
Book Description
Legal Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States provides a "legal playbook" for deep decarbonization in the United States, identifying well over 1,000 legal options for enabling the United States to address one of the greatest problems facing this country and the rest of humanity. The book is based on two reports by the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) that explain technical and policy pathways for reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. This 80x50 target and similarly aggressive carbon abatement goals are often referred to as deep decarbonization, distinguished because it requires systemic changes to the energy economy. Legal Pathways explains the DDPP reports and then addresses in detail 35 different topics in as many chapters. These 35 chapters cover energy efficiency, conservation, and fuel switching; electricity decarbonization; fuel decarbonization; carbon capture and negative emissions; non-carbon dioxide climate pollutants; and a variety of cross-cutting issues. The legal options involve federal, state, and local law, as well as private governance. Authors were asked to include all options, even if they do not now seem politically realistic or likely, giving Legal Pathways not just immediate value, but also value over time. While both the scale and complexity of deep decarbonization are enormous, this book has a simple message: deep decarbonization is achievable in the United States using laws that exist or could be enacted. These legal tools can be used with significant economic, social, environmental, and national security benefits. Book Reviews "A growing chorus of Americans understand that climate change is the biggest public health, economic, and national security challenge our families have ever faced and they rightly ask, ''What can anyone do?'' Well, this book makes that answer very clear: we can do a lot as individuals, businesses, communities, cities, states, and the federal government to fight climate change. The legal pathways are many and the barriers are not insurmountable. In short, the time is now to dig deep and decarbonize." --Gina McCarthy, Former U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator "Legal Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States sets forth over 1,000 solutions for federal, state, local, and private actors to tackle climate change. This book also makes the math for Congress clear: with hundreds of policy options and 12 years to stop the worst impacts of climate change, now is the time to find a path forward." --Sheldon Whitehouse, U.S. Senator, Rhode Island "This superb work comes at a critical time in the history of our planet. As we increasingly face the threat and reality of climate change and its inevitable impact on our most vulnerable populations, this book provides the best and most current thinking on viable options for the future to address and ameliorate a vexing, worldwide challenge of extraordinary magnitude. Michael Gerrard and John Dernbach are two of the most distinguished academicians in the country on these issues, and they have assembled leading scholars and practitioners to provide a possible path forward. With 35 chapters and over 1,000 legal options, the book is like a menu of offerings for public consumption, showing that real actions can be taken, now and in the future, to achieve deep decarbonization. I recommend the book highly." --John C. Cruden, Past Assistant Attorney General, Environment and Natural Resources Division, U.S. Department of Justice "This book proves that we already know what to do about climate change, if only we had the will to do it. The path to decarbonization depends as much on removing legal impediments and changing outdated incentive systems as it does on imposing new regulations. There are ideas here for every sector of the economy, for every level of government, and for business and nongovernmental organizations, too, all of which should be on the table for any serious country facing the most serious of challenges. By giving us a sense of the possible, Gerrard and Dernbach and their fine authors seem to be saying two things: (1) do something; and (2) it''s possible. What a timely message, and what a great collection." --Jody Freeman, Archibald Cox Professor of Law and Founding Director of the Harvard Law School Environmental and Energy Law Program
Author: Ana Mileva Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 144
Book Description
Deep de-carbonization of the electric power sector is indispensable to achieving climate change mitigation. This work explores how aggressive reductions in electricity sector emission levels can be achieved, what the associated costs would be, and how these costs may be minimized. Integrating increased levels of intermittent renewable energy sources into the electricity grid poses new challenges to system planning, operation, and reliability, increasing the need for models that can merge the capabilities of capacity-expansion and production cost simulation models. I describe the operational detail I have incorporated into the long-term investment framework of the SWITCH model to allow for more accurate evaluation of both the potential contribution of intermittent renewable technologies to electricity decarbonization and the associated system flexibility requirements. I have implemented a series of enhancements to the model's treatment of system operations and generator types -- the SWITCH "system flexibility module" -- in order to simulate unit commitment as realistically as possible, at an unprecedented resolution for a capacity-expansion model of a large geographic area, offering some of the most detailed treatment to date of day-to-day system operations in an investment model. I run a range of scenarios to explore the effect of various sources of uncertainty for system development between present day and 2050 in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). I include sensitivities for technology costs, fuel prices, technology availability, demand profile, and availability and cost of system flexibility options. I find that meeting a carbon emissions reduction target of 85 percent below 2050 levels is feasible across a range of assumptions. The cost of achieving the goal is highly uncertain, but a number of opportunities to contain costs exist. In the 2030 timeframe, lowering the cost of solar technologies to the SunShot target is the main cost-reduction strategy. Achieving the ARPA-E battery cost target has a small impact on system costs through 2030, as other sources of flexibility are available to the system, including gas generation, hydro, and CAES. The price of natural gas is key to its utilization in the 2030 timeframe, but is not an important driver in 2050 when natural gas flexibility is of high value yet fuel use is limited by the carbon cap. Solar PV deployment is the main driver of CAES and battery storage deployment: its diurnal periodicity results in opportunities for daily arbitrage that these technologies are well suited to provide. Storage operation is very different from present day patterns - storage tends to charge during the day when solar PV is available and discharge in the evening and at night. Similarly, the ability to shift loads to the daytime solar peak could have cost-reduction benefits for the system. Wind output exhibits large seasonal variations; because it can remain at very low (or very high) levels for extended periods of time, it does not benefit from CAES and battery storage (operating as providers of daily arbitrage) as much as solar PV does, and instead requires storage with a large energy subcomponent. CSP with thermal storage is an important component of the 2050 power system, but it directly competes with the combination of solar PV and batteries. If low solar PV costs and low battery costs are achieved, the two technologies may be deployed at large-scale, displacing CSP with thermal storage. The combination of SunShot solar technology and advanced battery technology has the largest impact on total storage capacity deployment in 2050. This combination can provide substantial savings through 2050, greatly mitigating the cost of climate change mitigation and outperforming the nuclear-dominated scenario given the costs assumed here. Policy goals for storage deployment should incorporate both the power subsystem component and the energy subsystem component of energy storage. In addition, storage deployment requirements should be set as part of overall system development goals as system flexibility needs will vary depending on the rest of the grid mix. Policy ought to be technology-neutral and support a comprehensive portfolio of system flexibility options, allowing flexible generation, demand response, and flexible electric vehicle charging, which can provide comparable services, to compete with storage on a level playing field. The increase in system flexibility requirements can be managed through a system-wide approach including regional cooperation to strategically plan for transmission interconnection and geographic diversity of renewable resource deployment to mitigate the variability of overall output. System-level planning is critical to ensure that appropriate incentives are put in place for all grid assets to fully recover their costs and justify investment while providing the most value to the system and ensuring cost-effective system development over time.
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Author: Max Wei
Author: Max Wei
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Author: International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA
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Author: United States. Department of Energy. Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Clean Energy Technologies
Author: Energy Information Administration (U S )
Author: Michael Gerrard
Author: Ana Mileva