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Author: R. Anton Braun Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider three distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in fertility rates, changes in survival rates, and changes in technology. The empirical relevance of these factors is explored using a computable dynamic OLG model. We find that the combined effects of demographics and slower total factor productivity growth successfully explain both the levels and the magnitudes of the declines in the saving rate and the after-tax real interest rate during the 1990s. Model simulations indicate that the Japanese savings puzzle is over.
Author: R. Anton Braun Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider three distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in fertility rates, changes in survival rates, and changes in technology. The empirical relevance of these factors is explored using a computable dynamic OLG model. We find that the combined effects of demographics and slower total factor productivity growth successfully explain both the levels and the magnitudes of the declines in the saving rate and the after-tax real interest rate during the 1990s. Model simulations indicate that the Japanese savings puzzle is over.
Author: Yasunari Ueno Publisher: ISBN: 9786267195444 Category : Business & Economics Languages : zh-CN Pages : 0
Book Description
Japan's No. 1 economist, the most powerful "interest rate" explanation in history! Your job, savings and loans, and even your pension are all related to "interest rate"! This book is written by Mr. Yasuya Ueno, chief market economist of Mizuho Securities, Japan's top economist, and teaches you to start from the most basic concept of "interest rate" and then understand the operation of the financial market, the characteristics of various investment and financial products, Understand financial news and gain insights into economic trends! Whether it is the prosperity of the economy, commodity prices, the country's budget and financial situation, whether companies are making money, or personal investment and financial management - interest rates reflect the state of the economy.
Author: Mr.Ulrich Baumgartner Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 9781557754622 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 94
Book Description
This volume brings together various analytical studies the IMF staff has undertaken on the Japanese economy, focusing on two areas of particular interest for both longer-term economic performance and recent cyclical developments. The first is Japan's saving behavior, the second is the remarkable swing in asset prices that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Author: Mr.Fei Han Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498301142 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 147556838X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 26
Book Description
This paper examines how Japan’s long-term interest rates and Japanese banks’ interest rate risk exposures may evolve under Abenomics. Results from a panel regression analysis for major advanced economies shows that long-term government bond yields in Japan are determined to a large extent by growth and inflation outlook, fiscal conditions, demography, and the investor base of government securities. A further deterioration of fiscal conditions would push up long-term rates by about 2 percentage points over the medium term, but the rise is partly offset by higher demand for safe assets amid population aging and increased purchases by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, illustrative scenarios suggest the interest rate risk exposure of Japanese banks could decline substantially over the next two years. However, if structural and fiscal reforms are incomplete, both long-tem yields and interest-risk exposures of Japanese banks could increase over the medium term.
Author: Naoyuki Yoshino Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced an inflation target of 2% with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth. But due to lower international oil prices, it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures. Hence, in February 2016, the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB). The BOJ had previously purchased short-term government bonds mainly, a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs. On the one hand, banks reduced the numbers of government bonds because short-term bond yields had become negative, and even the interest rates of long-term government bonds up to 15 years became negative. On the other hand, bank loans to the corporate sector did not increase due to the Japanese economy's vertical investment-saving (IS) curve. Firstly, we explain why the BOJ has to reduce its 2% inflation target in the present low oil price era. Secondly, we argue that Japan cannot make a sustainable recovery from its long-lasting recession and tackle its long-standing deflation problem by means of its current monetary policy and its negative interest rate policy in particular. It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward sloping rather than vertical. That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest if interest rates are set too low. Japan's long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy. The last section reports our simulation results of tackling Japan's aging population by introducing a productivity-based wage rate and postponement of the retirement age, which will help the recovery of the Japanese economy.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484316908 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
This Selected Issues paper examines implications for long-term bond yields in case of Japan. The analysis finds that so far, upward pressure on interest rates from high public debt has been offset by domestic factors, including a stable investor base with a preference for safe assets. As these effects could decline with population aging, yields could rise unless reforms are implemented to stimulate growth and reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio. In such a scenario, long-term Japanese government bond rates would remain relatively low and stable. The paper also analyzes to what extent rising health care spending poses a fiscal risk to Japan’s economy.
Author: R. Anton Braun
Author: R. Anton Braun
Author: Yasunari Ueno
Author: Mr.Ulrich Baumgartner
Author: Mr.Fei Han
Author: Yutaka Kōsai
Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Author: Naoyuki Yoshino
Author: Heidi Hijikata
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Author: Atsushi Maki