Robust Estimation Techniques Can Help Explain Asset Pricing Anomalies PDF Download

Author: Keith P. Vorkink
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Assets (Accounting)
Languages : en
Pages : 392

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Author: James McDonald
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Robust estimation techniques based on symmetric probability distributions are often substituted for OLS to obtain efficient regression parameters with thick-tail distributed data. The empirical, simulation and theoretical results in this paper show that with skewed distributed data, symmetric robust estimation techniques produce biased regression intercepts. This paper evaluates robust methods in estimating the capital asset pricing model and shows skewed stock returns data used with symmetric robust estimation techniques produce biased alphas. The results support the recommendation that robust estimation using the skewed generalized T family of distributions may be used to obtain more efficient and unbiased estimates with skewness.

Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262039370
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497

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Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Author: Aaron Tornell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Aaron Tornell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Assets (Accounting)
Languages : en
Pages : 68

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Author: Denys Maslov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 340

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Book Description
In Chapter 1, I investigate whether returns of strategies based on asset pricing anomalies exhibit time series persistence which can be attributed to flow-induced trading by mutual funds. I find persistence for thirteen characteristics, which is statistically significant for five including size, corporate investment, and bankruptcy likelihood. The persistence is not explained by individual stock momentum and is not limited to certain calendar months. The return predictability can be used to construct new trading strategies, which on average earn 4.5% annually. A price pressure measure of mutual fund flow-driven trading explains a substantial part of the strategy performance persistence. In Chapter 2, we propose a new approach for estimating expected returns on individual stocks from firm characteristics. We treat expected returns as latent variables and develop a procedure that filters them out using the characteristics as signals and imposing restrictions implied by a one factor asset pricing model. The estimates of expected returns obtained by applying our method to thirteen asset pricing anomalies generate a wide cross-sectional dispersion of realized returns. Our results provide evidence of strong commonality in the anomalies. The use of portfolios based on the filtered expectations as test assets increases the power of asset pricing tests. In Chapter 3, we examine the sensitivity of fourteen asset pricing anomalies to extreme observations using robust regression methods. We find that although all anomalies except size are strong and robust for stocks with presumably low returns, most of them are sensitive to individual influential observations for stocks with presumably high returns. For some anomalies, extreme observations distort regression results for all stocks and even portfolio returns. When the impact of such observations is mitigated, eight anomalies become positively related to expected returns for stocks with low characteristics meaning that these anomalies have an inverted J-shaped form. Chapter 4 concludes by summarizing the main contributions of three chapters and their implications.

Author: Andrei Semenov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20

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We investigate the potential of the consumption CAPM with pessimism, doubt, and the availability heuristic in the agent's beliefs to resolve the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles. Using the nonlinear GMM estimation techniques, we find that doubt and the availability heuristic play an important role in explaining the cross-section of asset returns. However, when taken alone, these deviations from rational expectations can not resolve the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles. This result is robust to the assumption that the expected value of an uncertain prospect is nonlinear in the subjective outcome probabilities.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertation abstracts
Languages : en
Pages : 848

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Author: Aaron Tornell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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We present an alternative expectation formation mechanism that helps rationalize well known asset pricing anomalies, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess volatility, and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational expectations (RE), the expectation formation mechanism we consider is based on a rigorous optimization algorithm that does not presume misperceptions - it simply departs from some of the implicit assumptions that underlie RE. Agents fear that existence of misspecifications and design strategies that will be robust against a very large class of misspecifications. The new element is that uncertainty cannot be modeled via probability distributions. We consider an asset pricing model where uncertainty is represented by unknown disturbance sequences, as in the H-infinity-control literature. Agents must filter the persistent' and transitory' components of a sequence of observations in order to make consumption and portfolio decisions. We find that H-infinity forecasts are more sensitive to news than RE forecasts and equilibrium prices exhibit the anomalies previously mentioned.

Author: Guillaume Coqueret
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000912809
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 358

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Book Description
a detailed presentation of the key machine learning tools use in finance a large scale coding tutorial with easily reproducible examples realistic applications on a large publicly available dataset all the key ingredients to perform a full portfolio backtest