Author: Christopher D. Ittner Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 67
Book Description
This study examines the association between a firm's internal information environment and the accuracy of its externally-disclosed management earnings forecasts. Internally, firms use forecasts to plan for uncertain futures. The risk management literature argues that integrating risk-related information into forecasts and plans can improve a firm's ability to forecast future financial outcomes. We investigate whether this internal information manifests itself in the accuracy of external earnings guidance. Using detailed survey data and publicly-disclosed management earnings forecasts from a sample of publicly-traded U.S. companies, we find that more sophisticated risk-based forecasting and planning processes are associated with smaller earnings forecast errors and narrower forecast widths. These associations hold across a variety of different planning horizons (ranging from annual budgeting to long-term strategic planning), providing empirical support for the theoretical link between internal information quality and the quality of external disclosures.
Author: Michael Samonas Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118921100 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 234
Book Description
Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.
Author: Norio Kitagawa Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 64
Book Description
This study investigates the effect of managerial discretion over their initial earnings forecasts on future performance. First, by estimating the discretionary portion of initial management earnings forecasts (defined as discretionary forecasts) based on the findings of fundamental analysis research, we find that firms with higher discretionary forecasts are more likely to miss their earnings forecast at the end of the fiscal year and revise their forecasts downward to meet their earnings forecasts for the period, suggesting that forecast management through discretionary forecasting produces less credible management forecasts in terms of ex-post realization. Second, by using the hedge-portfolio test and regression analysis, we find that firms with higher discretionary forecasts earn consistently negative abnormal returns, suggesting that investors do not fully understand the implication of discretionary forecasts for the credibility of management earnings forecasts and thus overprice them at the forecast announcement.
Author: Mike Metcalfe Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1461522552 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 354
Book Description
This book is about managing the task of forecasting profit. It builds a case for using multiple methods, providing examples of each method, and suggesting practical techniques to use in dealing with the issues and problems of accuracy in profit forecasts. All the elements that infringe on profits (costs, sales, budgeting, investment, and loan default) are examined within this framework. In addition to synthesizing the research, Professor Metcalfe has applied his own research work on forecast modeling and judgmental methods. The final result is a practical reference book for making more accurate profit forecasts.
Author: Howard Kunreuther Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0190499419 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 249
Book Description
A profound and insightful look at how company leaders prepare for and respond to shocks and crises that threaten their business. Successful firms strategically manage and are more accurate in their assessment of large-scale risks. Doing so is increasingly challenging given the pace of change, whether financial, technological, regulatory, or environmental. Mastering Catastrophic Risk provides real-world practical insights into how large companies are responding to this new reality and develops a framework for smarter thinking about events that can damage a business. As leading authorities on risk management, strategy, and company leadership, Howard Kunreuther and Michael Useem take us on a groundbreaking tour of firms' decision making process. They demonstrate how improving readiness for and resilience against future shocks is now an integral part of company strategy. Using the "DISRUPT" model they have developed, they highlight the seven primary Drivers of disruption: Interdependencies increase exposure; Short-term focus results in limited vision; Regulations require change and constrain opportunities; Urbanization increases the costs of disasters; Probabilities of disasters have increased; and Transparency has enhanced public awareness of problems and impacts on firms' reputations. Some disruptions can be anticipated, while others arrive without warning. Their onset stresses decision makers, impairs company operations, and may even put the enterprise at risk. The bottom-line: business leaders and their governing boards face ever more challenging disruptions and must be ever more on guard. If your company is hit tomorrow, will it bounce back, or drown?
Author: Richard A. Cazier Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
In this study we examine whether managers' voluntary forecasts of future earnings are consistent with the implicit forecasts of future earnings that underlie a specific mandatory accrual, the valuation allowance. This accrual relies heavily on managerial estimation and is also based, in part, on managers' private, forward-looking information. Thus, it provides an ideal setting to investigate the interplay between voluntary and mandatory financial disclosures. By examining the consistency between the voluntary and mandatory forecasts, we are also able to provide insight into whether the predictable accrual-related bias in voluntary earnings forecasts carries over into the mandatory forecast embedded in the valuation allowance. We then investigate whether the biased voluntary earnings guidance helps analysts and investors more accurately interpret the information in valuation allowance changes about future earnings expectations. To increase the power of our tests we utilize a sample of loss firms, which frequently record valuation allowances to fully or partially offset deferred tax assets.We first document that more than 62 percent of our sample of loss firms report valuation allowance changes and management earnings guidance that convey the same basic information about future earnings (i.e., either both forecast profit or both forecast loss). Thus, these voluntary and mandatory forecasts are largely consistent with each other. We then provide evidence that managers provide overly pessimistic forecasts for observations whose valuation allowance changes signal bad news about future earnings, but overly optimistic forecasts for observations whose valuation allowance changes signal strong good news about future earnings. Finally, our results suggest that managers' biased earnings forecasts actually help analysts and investors more accurately interpret the information about future earnings in valuation allowance changes. Our findings provide new insights into actions managers can take to improve investor and analyst processing of financial statement-based tax information.
Author: Stephen Brown Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
We examine the influence of the ex ante risk of class action securities litigation on firms' decisions to issue management earnings forecasts as well as the characteristics of those forecasts. We find that litigation risk is positively associated with the likelihood of issuing a forecast for both good- and bad-news firms. While the association is marginally stronger for firms with bad earnings news, our results suggest that litigation risk is unlikely to explain the observed preponderance of bad-news forecasts. We examine the effect of litigation risk on the amount of the total earnings news released in the forecast, on forecast horizon, and on forecast precision. These results indicate that higher litigation risk is associated with a higher proportion of news being released when firms have bad news. Finally, higher litigation risk is associated with forecasts being released earlier and being more precise.
Author: Kenneth J. Merkley Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
We provide archival evidence on how a particular type of supplementary information affects the credibility of management earnings forecasts. Managers often provide detailed forecasts of specific income statement line items to shed light on how they plan to achieve their bottom-line earnings targets. We assess the effect of this forecast disaggregation on the credibility of management earnings forecasts. Based on a relatively large hand-collected sample of 900 management earnings forecasts, we find that disaggregation increases analysts' sensitivity to the news in managers' earnings guidance, suggesting that analysts find the guidance more credible. More importantly, we identify several factors that influence this relation. First, disaggregation plays a more important role when earnings are otherwise more difficult to forecast. Second, disaggregation is more important after Regulation Fair Disclosure prohibited selective disclosure, especially for firms that were more affected because they had previously provided more private guidance. Finally, in contrast to common assertions in the prior literature, we find that in more recent years, disaggregation matters more for guidance that conveys bad news. Managers as well as researchers should be interested in evidence suggesting that financial analysts find disaggregation especially helpful in contexts where managers' credibility is particularly important.
Author: Christopher D. Ittner
Author: Michael Samonas
Author: Norio Kitagawa
Author: Mike Metcalfe
Author: Howard Kunreuther
Author: Richard A. Cazier
Author: Stephen Brown
Author: Kenneth J. Merkley
Author: Hwa Deuk Yi
Author: Francis A. Lees