RISK-BASED ASSESSMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS SUBJECTED TO NATURAL HAZARDS PDF Download

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Languages : en
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Abstract : Modern economic and social activities are dependent on a complex network of infrastructure systems that are highly interdependent. Electric power systems form the backbone of such complex network as most civil infrastructure systems cannot function properly without reliable power supply. Electric power systems are vulnerable to extensive damage due to natural hazards, as evident in recent hazard events. Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornados and other natural hazards have caused billions of dollars in direct losses due to damage to power systems and indirect losses due to power outages, as well as social disruption. There is, therefore, a need for a comprehensive framework to assess and mitigate the risk posed by natural hazards to electric power systems. Electric power systems rely on various components that work together to deliver power from generating units to customers. Consequently, any reliable risk assessment methodology needs to take into account how the different components interact. This requires a system-level risk assessment approach. This research presents a framework for system-level risk assessment and management for electric power systems subjected to natural hazards. Specifically, risk due to hurricanes and earthquakes, as well as the combined effect of both is considered. The framework incorporates a topological-based system reliability model, probabilistic and scenario-based hazard analysis, climate change modeling, component vulnerability, component importance measure, multi-hazard risk assessment, and cost analysis. Several risk mitigation strategies are proposed; their efficiency and cost-effectiveness are studied. The developed framework is intended to assist utility companies and other stakeholders in making a risk-informed decision regarding short- and long-term investment in natural hazard risk mitigation for electric power systems. The framework can be used to identify certain parts of the system to strengthen, compare the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of various risk mitigation strategies using life-cycle cost analysis, compare risks posed by different natural hazards, and prioritize investment in the face of limited resources.

Author: Mark G. Stewart
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030850188
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 449

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The volume explains how risk and decision-making analytics can be applied to the wicked problem of protecting infrastructure and society from extreme events. There is increasing research that takes into account the risks associated with the timing and severity of extreme events in engineering to reduce the vulnerability or increase the resiliency of infrastructure. "Engineering for extremes" is defined as measures taken to reduce the vulnerability or increase the resiliency of built infrastructure to climate change, hurricanes, storms, floods, earthquakes, heat waves, fires, and malevolent and abnormal events that include terrorism, gas explosions, vehicle impact and vehicle overload. The book introduces the key concepts needed to assess the economic and social well-being risks, costs and benefits of infrastructure to extreme events. This includes hazard modelling (likelihood and severity), infrastructure vulnerability, resilience or exposure (likelihood and extent of damage), social and economic loss models, risk reduction from protective measures, and decision theory (cost-benefit and utility analyses). Case studies authored by experts from around the world describe the practical aspects of risk assessment when deciding on the most cost-efficient measures to reduce infrastructure vulnerability to extreme events for housing, buildings, bridges, roads, tunnels, pipelines, and electricity infrastructure in the developed and developing worlds.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309293987
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 61

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The Resilience of the Electric Power Delivery System in Response to Terrorism and Natural Disasters is the summary of a workshop convened in February 2013 as a follow-up to the release of the National Research Council report Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System. That report had been written in 2007 for the Department of Homeland Security, but publication was delayed because of security concerns. While most of the committee's findings were still relevant, many developments affecting vulnerability had occurred in the interval. The 2013 workshop was a discussion of the committee\'s results, what had changed in recent years, and how lessons learned about the grid's resilience to terrorism could be applied to other threats to the grid resulting from natural disasters. The purpose was not to translate the entire report into the present, but to focus on key issues relevant to making the grid sufficiently robust that it could handle inevitable failures without disastrous impact. The workshop focused on five key areas: physical vulnerabilities of the grid; cybersecurity; mitigation and response to outages; community resilience and the provision of critical services; and future technologies and policies that could enhance the resilience of the electric power delivery system. The electric power transmission and distribution system (the grid) is an extraordinarily complex network of wires, transformers, and associated equipment and control software designed to transmit electricity from where it is generated, usually in centralized power plants, to commercial, residential, and industrial users. Because the U.S. infrastructure has become increasingly dependent on electricity, vulnerabilities in the grid have the potential to cascade well beyond whether the lights turn on, impacting among other basic services such as the fueling infrastructure, the economic system, and emergency services. The Resilience of the Electric Power Delivery System in Response to Terrorism and Natural Disasters discusses physical vulnerabilities and the cybersecurity of the grid, ways in which communities respond to widespread outages and how to minimize these impacts, the grid of tomorrow, and how resilience can be encouraged and built into the grid in the future.

Author: Claire Nicolas
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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The power sector is both highly vulnerable to natural hazards and a priority for any country'srecovery and reconstruction. After Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017, most of the power gridwas down. One year and tens of billions of dollars later some customers were yet to be reconnected to the main grid. This type of long and widespread power outage has major consequences on people's health and well-being, for instance through lacking access to refrigeration for food and medicine, and on the ability of firms to produce and provide people with goods, services, jobs, and income. In most countries, the power system is designed to cope with high-frequency but relatively low impact events. Low-frequency, high-impact events - such as many natural disasters - are rarely considered fully, and the implementation of planned management measures is often patchy. Furthermore, the power system is a special kind of infrastructure due to the heterogeneity of the generation assets and its wide spatial distribution. The latter means that power systems are often exposed to natural hazards and sometimes to more than one hazard, leading to high repair costs when disasters strike. This paper, prepared as a sectoral note for the Lifelines report on infrastructure resilience, investigates the vulnerability of the power system to natural hazards and climate change, and provides recommendations to increase its resilience. It first describes how power outages are often the consequence of natural disasters and outlines the main vulnerabilities of the power sector. It then proposes a range of approaches and solutions for building a more resilient power sector - from increased robustness to greater flexibility - showing that the additional cost of resilience is not high if resources are well spent. Finally, it describes how emergency preparedness and disaster recovery encompass not only technical aspects, like asset strengthening or criticality analysis, but also "softer" skills, like governance, regulatory or capacity building, and education.

Author: Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111901798X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 714

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Book Description
Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.

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Category : Artificial intelligence
Languages : en
Pages : 79

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The resilience issues in the power system have attracted increasing attention worldwide, especially for the distribution systems that suffer from extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and wildfire. In this dissertation, several novel algorithms, such as safe reinforcement learning algorithm and risk-constrained adaptive robust optimization approach are proposed to provide resilient proactive scheduling strategies, emergency response strategy and restoration strategy for central controllers in the distribution system. Microgrids are proposed to serve as single entities from the perspective of the distribution system operator to enhance the resilience of the distribution system, reduce the distribution system operator's control burden and improve the power quality of the distribution system. Uncertainties related with the extreme weather events such as power generation of distributed generators, intermittent load demand, point-of-common-coupling/tie-line conditions, and trend/trace of the extreme weather event are tackled through a combination of optimization approaches, artificial intelligence algorithms and risk management methods. Extensive simulation results based on real-world data sets show that the proposed novel algorithms based proactive scheduling strategies, emergence response strategy and restoration strategy can ensure the resilience of the distribution system in a real-world environment.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Natural disasters
Languages : en
Pages : 426

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Author: José Luis Rueda-Torres
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119214971
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 452

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Identifying, assessing, and mitigating electric power grid vulnerabilities is a growing focus in short-term operational planning of power systems. Through illustrated application, this important guide surveys state-of-the-art methodologies for the assessment and enhancement of power system security in short term operational planning and real-time operation. The methodologies employ advanced methods from probabilistic theory, data mining, artificial intelligence, and optimization, to provide knowledge-based support for monitoring, control (preventive and corrective), and decision making tasks. Key features: Introduces behavioural recognition in wide-area monitoring and security constrained optimal power flow for intelligent control and protection and optimal grid management. Provides in-depth understanding of risk-based reliability and security assessment, dynamic vulnerability assessment methods, supported by the underpinning mathematics. Develops expertise in mitigation techniques using intelligent protection and control, controlled islanding, model predictive control, multi-agent and distributed control systems Illustrates implementation in smart grid and self-healing applications with examples and real-world experience from the WAMPAC (Wide Area Monitoring Protection and Control) scheme. Dynamic Vulnerability Assessment and Intelligent Control for Power Systems is a valuable reference for postgraduate students and researchers in power system stability as well as practicing engineers working in power system dynamics, control, and network operation and planning.

Author: Naser Mahdavi Tabatabaei
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319944428
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 366

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Book Description
This book presents intuitive explanations of the principles and applications of power system resiliency, as well as a number of straightforward and practical methods for the impact analysis of risk events on power system operations. It also describes the challenges of modelling, distribution networks, optimal scheduling, multi-stage planning, deliberate attacks, cyber-physical systems and SCADA-based smart grids, and how to overcome these challenges. Further, it highlights the resiliency issues using various methods, including strengthening the system against high impact events with low frequency and the fast recovery of the system properties. A large number of specialists have collaborated to provide innovative solutions and research in power systems resiliency. They discuss the fundamentals and contemporary materials of power systems resiliency, theoretical and practical issues, as well as current issues and methods for controlling the risk attacks and other threats to AC power systems. The book includes theoretical research, significant results, case studies, and practical implementation processes to offer insights into electric power and engineering and energy systems. Showing how systems should respond in case of malicious attacks, and helping readers to decide on the best approaches, this book is essential reading for electrical engineers, researchers and specialists. The book is also useful as a reference for undergraduate and graduate students studying the resiliency and reliability of power systems.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309161525
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 161

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Book Description
The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.