Forecasting: principles and practice PDF Download

Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380

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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Author: Tim Vasquez
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780970684066
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
The Weather Forecasting Red Book is a groundbreaking reference that breaks away from theory and helps forecasters tackle everyday prediction problems. The book contains a wealth of information on real-life techniques, methods, and forecast systems. It draws upon a wealth of experience collected by the weather services of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The first section deals with observational systems, explaining what quantities of wind, temperature, and pressure really mean. The analysis section defines standards and conventions for weather maps. The forecasting section has over a hundred pages of techniques, methods, patterns, and basic ideas and principles. And in the numerical model section, key details of the latest models are explained. It's written by a forecaster for forecasters. If it's needed at the forecast desk, it's in here.

Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331

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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Author: Andrew Blum
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 1443438618
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 191

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Book Description
From the acclaimed author of Tubes, a lively and surprising tour through the global network that predicts our weather, the people behind it, and what it reveals about our climate and our planet The weather is the foundation of our daily lives. It’s a staple of small talk, the app on our smartphones, and often the first thing we check each morning. Yet, behind all these humble interactions is the largest and most elaborate piece of infrastructure human beings have ever constructed—a triumph of both science and global cooperation. But what is the weather machine, and who created it? In The Weather Machine, Andrew Blum takes readers on a fascinating journey through the people, places, and tools of forecasting, exploring how the weather went from something we simply observed to something we could actually predict. As he travels across the planet, he visits some of the oldest and most important weather stations and watches the newest satellites blast off. He explores the dogged efforts of forecasters to create a supercomputer model of the atmosphere, while trying to grasp the ongoing relevance of TV weather forecasters. In the increasingly unpredictable world of climate change, correctly understanding the weather is vital. Written with the sharp wit and infectious curiosity Andrew Blum is known for, The Weather Machine pulls back the curtain on a universal part of our everyday lives, illuminating our changing relationships with technology, the planet, and our global community.

Author: Eric Verzuh
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119148227
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 533

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Book Description
The all-inclusive guide to exceptional project management The Fast Forward MBA in Project Management is the comprehensive guide to real-world project management methods, tools, and techniques. Practical, easy-to-use, and deeply thorough, this book gives you answers you need now. You'll find the cutting-edge ideas and hard-won wisdom of one of the field's leading experts, delivered in short, lively segments that address common management issues. Brief descriptions of important concepts, tips on real-world applications, and compact case studies illustrate the most sought-after skills and the pitfalls you should watch out for. This new fifth edition features new case studies, new information on engaging stakeholders, change management, new guidance on using Agile techniques, and new content that integrates current events and trends in the project management sphere. Project management is a complex role, with seemingly conflicting demands that must be coordinated into a single, overarching, executable strategy — all within certain time, resource, and budget constraints. This book shows you how to get it all together and get it done, with expert guidance every step of the way. Navigate complex management issues effectively Master key concepts and real-world applications Learn from case studies of today's leading experts Keep your project on track, on time, and on budget From finding the right sponsor to clarifying objectives to setting a realistic schedule and budget projection, all across different departments, executive levels, or technical domains, project management incorporates a wide range of competencies. The Fast Forward MBA in Project Management shows you what you need to know, the best way to do it, and what to watch out for along the way.

Author: Mark Buchanan
Publisher: A&C Black
ISBN: 1408827379
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273

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Book Description
Positive feedback--when A produces B, which in turn produces even more A--drives not only abrupt climate changes, but also disruptive events in economics and finance, from asset bubbles to debt crises, bank runs, even corporate corruption. But economists, with few exceptions, have ignored this reality for fifty years, holding on to the unreasonable belief in the wisdom of the market. It's past time to be asking how markets really work. Can we replace economic magical thinking with a better means of predicting what the financial future holds, in order to prepare for--or even avoid--the next extreme economic event? Here, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. Market instability is as natural--and dangerous--as a prairie twister. With Buchanan's help, perhaps we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.

Author: Cindy M. Lewis
Publisher: Microsoft Press
ISBN: 1509307478
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 820

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Book Description
The quick way to learn Microsoft Project 2019! This is learning made easy. Get more done quickly with Microsoft Project 2019. Jump in wherever you need answers–brisk lessons and informative screenshots show you exactly what to do, step by step. Other Project users will want to grab this book as well. Quickly start new plans, build task lists, and assign resources View resource capacity and track progress Capture and fine-tune work and cost details Visualize schedules with Gantt charts and other views and reports Consolidate projects, and share resources across plans Manage modern Agile projects (James Mills, Jr., contributor) Customize Project to maximize your efficiency Leverage improvements to task linking, timelines, and accessibility Master PM best practices while you learn Project Look up just the tasks and lessons you need

Author: Charles Yu
Publisher: Knopf
ISBN: 0307379884
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 257

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Book Description
This enhanced eBook includes video, audio, photographic, and linked content, as well as a bonus short story. Hear TAMMY talk. Learn the origins of Minor Universe 31. See the TM-31. Take a trip in it. Photos and illustrations appear as hyperlinked endnotes. Video and audio are embedded directly in text. *Video and audio may not play on all readers. Check your user manual for details. National Book Foundation 5 Under 35 Award winner Charles Yu delivers his debut novel, a razor-sharp, ridiculously funny, and utterly touching story of a son searching for his father . . . through quantum space–time. Minor Universe 31 is a vast story-space on the outskirts of fiction, where paradox fluctuates like the stock market, lonely sexbots beckon failed protagonists, and time travel is serious business. Every day, people get into time machines and try to do the one thing they should never do: change the past. That’s where Charles Yu, time travel technician—part counselor, part gadget repair man—steps in. He helps save people from themselves. Literally. When he’s not taking client calls or consoling his boss, Phil, who could really use an upgrade, Yu visits his mother (stuck in a one-hour cycle of time, she makes dinner over and over and over) and searches for his father, who invented time travel and then vanished. Accompanied by TAMMY, an operating system with low self-esteem, and Ed, a nonexistent but ontologically valid dog, Yu sets out, and back, and beyond, in order to find the one day where he and his father can meet in memory. He learns that the key may be found in a book he got from his future self. It’s called How to Live Safely in a Science Fictional Universe, and he’s the author. And somewhere inside it is the information that could help him—in fact it may even save his life. Wildly new and adventurous, Yu’s debut is certain to send shock waves of wonder through literary space–time.

Author: Kevin Goodan
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781948579223
Category : Poetry
Languages : en
Pages : 100

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Book Description
"From the unique perspective of a U.S. Forest Service elite, a Type 1 Interagency "Hotshot" Crew (the "SEAL Team Six of the firefighting world"), poems weave together memory, urgency, and the passage of time. Features segments from actual incident reports, forcing readers to witness what it's like to stand before an inferno, walking with one foot in the black. An elegy for the self and the damage one sustains fighting wildfires"--

Author: Storm Dunlop
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 184

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Book Description
Describes weather forecasting, including how different phenomena develop, how geography produces local weather patterns, and ways to make a forecast at home.