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Author: Simon H. Okoth Publisher: WestBow Press ISBN: 151278723X Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 152
Book Description
Given the frequency of natural and man-made disasters and the degree to which ordinary citizens find themselves as first responders, this book offers some well-researched answers to the following and frequently asked questions: What motivates ordinary citizens to (or to want to) assist others in danger even when their own lives might be at stake? To what extent do human emotions influence public policy and administrative decisions on how to mitigate, prepare for, and respond to catastrophic events? How can governments better prepare for emergencies knowing these facts? The book goes further to suggest a number of strategies for policy makers, communities, and individuals to protect human lives and property. Tool kit URLs for preparing to different types of emergencies are included.
Author: Simon H. Okoth Publisher: WestBow Press ISBN: 151278723X Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 152
Book Description
Given the frequency of natural and man-made disasters and the degree to which ordinary citizens find themselves as first responders, this book offers some well-researched answers to the following and frequently asked questions: What motivates ordinary citizens to (or to want to) assist others in danger even when their own lives might be at stake? To what extent do human emotions influence public policy and administrative decisions on how to mitigate, prepare for, and respond to catastrophic events? How can governments better prepare for emergencies knowing these facts? The book goes further to suggest a number of strategies for policy makers, communities, and individuals to protect human lives and property. Tool kit URLs for preparing to different types of emergencies are included.
Author: Kenneth A. Posner Publisher: Columbia University Press ISBN: 0231521677 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 284
Book Description
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House Digital, Inc. ISBN: 0812979184 Category : Forecasting Languages : en Pages : 388
Book Description
In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.
Author: Brooks Jackson Publisher: Random House ISBN: 1588365824 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 210
Book Description
The founders of FactCheck.org teach you how to identify and debunk spin, hype, and fake news in this essential guide to informed citizenship in an age of misinformation. Americans are bombarded daily with mixed messages, half-truths, misleading statements, and out-and-out fabrications masquerading as facts. The news media is often too intimidated, too partisan, or too overworked to keep up with these deceptions. unSpun is the secret decoder ring for the twenty-first-century world of disinformation. Written by Brooks Jackson and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, the founders of the acclaimed website FactCheck.org,unSpun reveals the secrets of separating facts from disinformation, such as: • the warning signs of spin • common tricks used to deceive the public • how to find trustworthy and objective sources of information Telling fact from fiction shouldn’t be a difficult task. With this book and a healthy dose of skepticism, anyone can cut through the haze of political deception and biased eportage to become a savvier, more responsible citizen. Praise for unSpun “Read this book and you will not go unarmed into the political wars ahead of us. Jackson and Jamieson equip us to be our own truth squad, and that just might be the salvation of democracy.” —Bill Moyers “The definitive B.S. detector—an absolutely invaluable guidebook.”—Mark Shields, syndicated columnist and political analyst, NewsHour with Jim Lehrer “unSpun is an essential guide to cutting through the political fog.”—Mara Liasson, NPR national political correspondent “The Internet may be a wildly effective means of communication and an invaluable source of knowledge, but it has also become a new virtual haven for scammers–financial, political, even personal. Better than anything written before, unSpun shows us how to recognize these scams and protect ourselves from them.”—Craig Newmark, founder and customer service representative, Craigslist
Author: Felicity Dale Publisher: CreateSpace ISBN: 9781497300187 Category : Religion Languages : en Pages : 280
Book Description
All it took was one. One black swan changed people's minds forever. The Black Swan Effect presents a vision for what can happen as men and women work together in the Kingdom of God. The authors (both male and female) encourage men to champion women as equal co-laborers and partners in the harvest. They give women permission and inspiration to follow the Lord—to reach their own full potential and encourage others to fulfill God's call. The Black Swan Effect equips both men and women to bring an informed and positive contribution to the increasingly crucial conversation on gender in the church. If you are like most Christians, one of three primary motivations propels you into this discussion about women in ministry: • Many Christians have come to the conclusion that there is no better way to increase the size of God's missions workforce than to fully deploy women to use their spiritual gifts and God-given capacities. • Some are asking theological questions. They are investigating how the Bible portrays women, especially women leaders. How did Jesus treat women? Were the New Testament writers—in particular, the apostle Paul—misogynists? Are there alternative interpretations for some of the really difficult passages of Scripture? • Others are drawn to this discussion because of issues related to justice and human dignity around the world as well as in the church. As they study Scripture, they are assured that God creates all men and women in his image, and they can't even imagine a God who would discriminate against women. Fourteen different authors contribute to these themes, each writing from their own area of passion and expertise, the whole being woven together into a single narrative. Encouraging stories of women who are doing marvelous things for God today accompany each chapter. Change is coming! Let's get ready.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House ISBN: 0812997697 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 1253
Book Description
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.
Author: Michele Wucker Publisher: St. Martin's Press ISBN: 1466887001 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 288
Book Description
The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future. A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled.
Author: Ben Sherwood Publisher: Grand Central Publishing ISBN: 0446543918 Category : Self-Help Languages : en Pages : 337
Book Description
Discover how to become the kind of person who survives and thrives with this "must-read" New York Times bestseller that's filled with fascinating true stories and helpful advice (New York Times). Each second of the day, someone in America faces a crisis, whether it's Covid-19, a car accident, violent crime, or financial trouble. Given the inevitability of adversity, we all wonder: Who beats the odds and who surrenders? How can I become the kind of person who bounces back? The fascinating, hopeful answers to these questions are found in The Survivors Club. In the tradition of The Tipping Point and Freakonomics, this book reveals the hidden side of survival through: astonishing true stories gripping scientific research the 5 Survivor Profiles top 12 Survivor Tools There is no escaping life's inevitable struggles. But The Survivors Club can give you an edge when adversity strikes.
Author: Anne Batterson Publisher: Simon and Schuster ISBN: 9780743216654 Category : Biography & Autobiography Languages : en Pages : 192
Book Description
Set against a spontaneous cross-country road trip following the migrating birds, this passionate, lyrical memoir is one woman's reflections on midlife, her important personal relationships, her kaleidoscopic past, and her uncertain future. To fifty-six-year-old Anne Batterson, a woman whose life has been filled with adventure -- as a commercial pilot, an international skydiving champion, a trekking guide in Nepal -- her husband's decision to retire felt like a death sentence. Yearning for some way to reconcile herself to the future that was rapidly unfolding before her, she packed up her VW camper and hit the road with maps, bird guides, and little else except the desire to follow the fall migration and the bone-deep hunch that birds had something important to teach her. In this beautifully written narrative of that extraordinary trip, Batterson writes movingly not only about her experiences with the birds but also about the people she loves, has lost, and connects with along the way. Events from the present trigger vivid stories from the past. In the chapter "The Journey Within the Journey," a long, lonely night in a deserted campground in Virginia conjures up the ghosts of a desperate solo road trip she made when she was twenty-one. A towering cumulus cloud in Illinois brings back a breathtaking free fall into a similar cloud in "My Time as a Bird." An encounter with a great blue heron summons a compelling account of her mother's last afternoon in the world. "Bears in the Woods" describes a run-in with two Deliverance-type men in West Virginia, which brings back the murder of a dear friend in the woods of Connecticut. By the end of the journey, the ghosts of the past, like the author herself, have become part of a more fluid, more spiritual reality -- wild and spare and elegant and timeless -- one that is always out there, "quickening on the far side of reality." A unique mix of memoir and nature writing, The Black Swan is a charming story of a woman's odyssey.
Author: Simon H. Okoth
Author: Simon H. Okoth
Author: Kenneth A. Posner
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: Brooks Jackson
Author: Felicity Dale
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: Michele Wucker
Author: Ben Sherwood
Author: Lee Carroll
Author: Anne Batterson