Report on the Ethiopian Economy: Macroeconomic performance : an overview; 1.1 Growth and patterns of structural change; Agriculture; lndustry; Service Sector; 1.2 Saving and investment; 1.3 Price developments; 1.4 Monetary developments; 1.5 Public finance and public debt; 1.6 External sector developments; Balance of payments; Exports; Imports. Chapter II. Performance of the agricultural sector. Chapter III. The large and medium scale manufacturing industries: performance during the first GTP ll implementation year (2015 PDF Download

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Publisher:
ISBN: 9789994454679
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 288

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Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451812620
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 99

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This paper reviews economic developments in Ethiopia during 1995–99. It provides an update on macroeconomic performance and structural reforms during FY96–FY99 (fiscal year ended July 7), when Ethiopia—as Africa’s second most populous country and one of the world’s poorest nations—continued to make strides in transitioning to a market-based economy and alleviating widespread poverty. The paper also highlights the major challenges in the areas of financial sector liberalization, civil service reform, and privatization.

Author: Dorosh, Paul
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 35

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This paper explores these issues for Ethiopia utilizing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM). We present the results of four alternative investment scenarios -- faster investment in i) cities; ii) crop agriculture; iii) the rural non-farm sector and agro-industry; and iv) livestock. The simulations suggest that investments in cities generate faster economic growth and structural transformation. However, given the large share of the population with incomes linked to agriculture and the rural economy, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. In short, though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agri-food system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia, as well as for reducing food import dependency.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451812647
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 77

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Recent economic developments have been adversely affected by the severe drought. The mission and the authorities updated the macroeconomic framework for 2003/04 and the medium-term in light of recent developments and the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) price projections. The fiscal strategy is focused on achieving and maintaining public debt sustainability, and maximizing the efficient use of highly concessional resources for poverty reduction-related activities. The policies to be implemented under the third annual program aim at maintaining macroeconomic stability and achieving rates of economic growth.

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484365607
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 76

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KEY ISSUES Context: Ethiopia’s investment-led development strategy has delivered robust growth and progress toward Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Restrained fiscal and monetary policies have helped maintain macroeconomic stability, although the financing mode of the continuing large-scale investment through public enterprises could risk undermining macroeconomic stability. A cautious policy stance will be critical in preserving the recent gains. Focus of the consultation: The discussions centered on policies to sustain strong economic growth and promote structural transformation. Issues covered included: (i) the policy mix to preserve macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability; (ii) the public sector investment program and its financing; and (iii) financial deepening, export competitiveness and the business climate. Outlook and Risks: Growth is expected to remain strong, driven mainly by agriculture and services. Inflation should continue to remain in single digits, in line with a tight monetary policy. Key downside risks include insufficient financing for infrastructure investment in the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), lower prices of main export commodities, and weather-related shocks, particularly a drought. Policy mix: Staff recommendations focused on sustaining a cautious policy stance, prioritization of public investments and closer monitoring of state-owned enterprises to ensure prudent borrowing in the context of a medium-term debt management strategy, enhancing export competitiveness, greater resource mobilization and development of the financial sector, and a more prominent role for the private sector. Structural improvements in the functioning of the money and foreign exchange market and building foreign reserves to at least three months of imports were suggested to enhance resiliency. The need for greater interest rate and exchange rate flexibility and improved competitiveness of the traded goods sector, including through exchange rate adjustment, was underscored.

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498344496
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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This Selected Issues paper argues that for Ethiopia to continue sustaining robust growth, leveraging the transformation power of the private sector, especially entrepreneurs, is essential. Although Ethiopia’s public sector-led development strategy has delivered strong results over the past decade, it has been facing significant challenges in recent years. A model-based analysis of the country’s investment program indicates that, despite positive long-run growth effects, transition challenges and macroeconomic trade-offs are associated with different financing strategies. Heavy reliance on domestic bank borrowing may require substantial fiscal and macroeconomic adjustments as well as entail a sharp increase in inflation. External commercial borrowing, on the other hand, may ease these adjustments but at the cost of significant increases in debt to gross domestic product ratios. Comparing Ethiopia’s development experience—especially in terms of structural transformation and competitiveness—with that of selected Asian countries indicates differences which point to possible adjustments in Ethiopia’s development approach.

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513528130
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 121

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This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Ethiopia and its Requests for Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and an Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. Ethiopia has enjoyed strong growth for over a decade, which has reduced poverty and raised living standards. However, the public investment-driven growth model has reached its limits. The authorities have announced a Homegrown Economic Reform Plan, consisting of a mix of macroeconomic, structural and sectoral policies, to address vulnerabilities and tackle structural bottlenecks inhibiting private sector activity. Over the medium term, macroeconomic and structural reforms announced by the authorities are expected to lead to a reduction in public debt, lower external vulnerabilities, and stronger growth, investment and exports. The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Domestic opposition to reforms ahead of the upcoming elections could increase investor uncertainty and weigh on investment and growth. External risks stem from rising protectionism and weaker than expected global growth as well as climate-related shocks.

Author: Dorosh, Paul A., ed.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 4

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Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475513232
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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Book Description
Ethiopia pursues a public sector-led growth strategy that focuses on promoting growth through high public investment supported partly by low nominal interest rates. While the strategy has contributed to robust economic growth in the past, recent developments indicate a buildup of vulnerabilities which need to be addressed in order to sustain this growth performance. While inflation remains high (21 percent at end-2011/12), real GDP growth, which is estimated at around 7 percent in 2011/12 and is projected to decline to 6.5 percent in subsequent years under the continuation of current policies, is still robust.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451879857
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 10

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This paper presents a Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy. Excessive domestic bank financing of the budget deficit could crowd out the private sector, increase pressure on reserve and inflation targets, and, given the already high levels of domestic debt, increase vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks. Public infrastructure investment recently increased substantially despite the lack of sound cost-benefit analysis. The strong pro-poor emphasis of government expenditure is paying off in terms of improvements in education and provision of health services.