Author: Shouyang WangPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 274
Book Description
Special Issue on Recent Advances in Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Mykel J. KochenderferPublisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262331713
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 350
Book Description
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Recent Advances in Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Shou-Yang WangPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Decision making
Languages : en
Pages : 284
Book Description
Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Mohammed AbdellaouiPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540684360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
Book Description
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Decision Making under Uncertainty
Author: R.W. ScholzPublisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080866700
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 457
Book Description
This volume contains the revised papers of an international symposium on research on fallacies, biases, and the development of decision behavior under uncertainty. The papers are organized in five main sections. The Introduction outlines the conceptual framework and how three of the sections - Cognitive Decision Research, Social Interaction, and Development and Epistemology - are interrelated and also how new fields, such as research into developmental questions, can be productively integrated. In the fifth section Comments are collected, which evaluate the impact of the contributions on decision research itself, and also on cognitive psychology, social psychology, economic theory, ant the discipline of mathematics education.
Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty
Author: Itzhak GilboaPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 052151732X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
Book Description
This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Recent Advances in Decision Making
Author: Elisabeth Rakus-AnderssonPublisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783642021886
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 179
Book Description
Intelligent paradigms are increasingly finding their ways in the design and development of decision support systems. This book presents a sample of recent research results from key researchers. The contributions include: Introduction to intelligent systems in decision making - A new method of ranking intuitionistic fuzzy alternatives - Fuzzy rule base model identification by bacterial memetic algorithms - Discovering associations with uncertainty from large databases - Dempster-Shafer structures, monotonic set measures and decision making - Interpretable decision-making models - A general methodology for managerial decision making - Supporting decision making via verbalization of data analysis results using linguistic data summaries - Computational intelligence in medical decisions making. This book is directed to the researchers, graduate students, professors, decision makers and to those who are interested to investigate intelligent paradigms in decision making.
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
Author: Vincent A. W. J. MarchauPublisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030052524
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 408
Book Description
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts
Author: González-Prida, VicentePublisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1799832481
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 423
Book Description
Business industries depend on advanced models and tools that provide an optimal and objective decision-making process, ultimately guaranteeing improved competitiveness, reducing risk, and eliminating uncertainty. Thanks in part to the digital era of the modern world, reducing these conditions has become much more manageable. Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts provides research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of effective decision making based not only on mathematical techniques, but also on those technological tools that are available nowadays in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as industrial informatics, knowledge management, and production planning, this book is ideally designed for decision makers, researchers, engineers, academicians, and students.
Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Donald J. BrownPublisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030595129
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
Book Description
This book is an exploration of the ubiquity of ambiguity in decision-making under uncertainty. It presents various essays on behavioral economics and behavioral finance that draw on the theory of Black Swans (Taleb 2010), which argues for a distinction between unprecedented events in our past and unpredictable events in our future. The defining property of Black Swan random events is that they are unpredictable, i.e., highly unlikely random events. In this text, Mandelbrot’s (1972) operational definition of risky random unpredictable events is extended to Black Swan assets – assets for which the cumulative probability distribution or conditional probability distribution of random future asset returns is a power distribution. Ambiguous assets are assets for which the uncertainties of future returns are not risks. Consequently, there are two disjoint classes of Black Swan assets: Risky Black Swan assets and Ambiguous Black Swan assets, a new class of ambiguous assets with unpredictable random future outcomes. The text is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on affective moods, introduces affective utility functions and discusses the ambiguity of Black Swans. The second part, which shifts the spotlight to affective equilibrium in asset markets, features chapters on affective portfolio analysis and Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities. In order to gain the most from the book, readers should have completed the standard introductory graduate courses on microeconomics, behavioral finance, and convex optimization. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and post docs specializing in economic theory, experimental economics, finance, mathematics, computer science or data analysis.