Author: Lucy F. AckertPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
Book Description
Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Adjustment of Security Analysts' Forecast to New Information
Author: Lucy F. AckertRational Expectations and the Dynamic Adjustment of Security Analysts' Forecasts to New Information
Author: Lucy F. AckertPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate profits
Languages : en
Pages : 20
Book Description
A Simultaneous Equations Analysis of Analysts' Forecast Bias and Institutional Ownership
Author: Lucy F. AckertPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate profits
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Book Description
The Magnitude and Timing of Analyst Forecast Response to Quarterly Earnings Announcements
Author: Lise Newman GrahamPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate profits
Languages : en
Pages : 334
Book Description
Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics
Author: Economic Review
Author: Rational Expectations
Author: Graham Keith ShawPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Dynamic Forecasting Behavior by Analysts
Author: Jonathan ClarkePublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 58
Book Description
We examine the dynamic forecasting behavior of security analysts in response to their prior performance relative to their peers. In a multi-period Bayesian learning model where an analyst and her employer (the investment bank or brokerage house) bargain over the surplus that she generates in each period, we show that the analyst's compensation at any date is convex in her perceived forecasting ability or reputation. Further, she faces employment risk as a result of the variation of her perceived ability with her relative forecasting performance. The interplay between the convexity of her payoff structure and the presence of employment risk leads to a non-monotonic U-shaped relationship between the deviation of the analyst's forecast from the consensus, and her prior relative performance. Hence, analysts who significantly out-perform or under-perform their peers issue bolder forecasts than intermediate performers. Consistent with existing empirical evidence, our theory also predicts that, ceteris paribus, the incentive to herd decreases with the analyst's experience. In our empirical analysis, we document significant support for the predicted U-shaped relation between the boldness of an analyst's forecast and her prior relative forecasting performance. We also document a positive relation between boldness and experience controlling for the predicted non-monotonic relation between boldness and prior performance that previous empirical studies do not incorporate. Finally, we directly test the importance of employment risk in driving variations in forecasting behavior. Consistent with the theory, we document that analysts with either high or low probabilities of being terminated in the future are more likely to issue bolder forecasts than those with intermediate termination probabilities.
Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. SinclairPublisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Robustness
Author: Lars Peter HansenPublisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691170975
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 453
Book Description
The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.