Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice PDF Download

Author: Robert E. Lucas
Publisher: U of Minnesota Press
ISBN: 1452908281
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 335

View

Book Description
Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.

Author: Robert E. Lucas
Publisher: U of Minnesota Press
ISBN: 1452901716
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 410

View

Book Description
Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice was first published in 1981. Minnesota Archive Editions uses digital technology to make long-unavailable books once again accessible, and are published unaltered from the original University of Minnesota Press editions. Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, government subsidy schemes and regulations. The doctrine of rational expectations uses standard economic methods to explain how those expectations are formed. This work collects the papers that have made significant contributions to formulating the idea of rational expectations. Most of the papers deal with the connections between observed economic behavior and the evaluation of alternative economic policies. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., is professor of economics at the University of Chicago. Thomas J. Sargent is professor of economics at the University of Minnesota and adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota.

Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691170975
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 453

View

Book Description
The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

Author: Preston J. Miller
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262631556
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 534

View

Book Description
These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.

Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000237087
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 305

View

Book Description
At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.

Author: Kevin D. Hoover
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 940110669X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 575

View

Book Description
Each chapter of Macroeconometrics is written by respected econometricians in order to provide useful information and perspectives for those who wish to apply econometrics in macroeconomics. The chapters are all written with clear methodological perspectives, making the virtues and limitations of particular econometric approaches accessible to a general readership familiar with applied macroeconomics. The real tensions in macroeconometrics are revealed by the critical comments from different econometricians, having an alternative perspective, which follow each chapter.

Author: James E Hartley
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113475681X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240

View

Book Description
Rpresentative agent models have become a predominant means of studying the macroeconomy in modern economics without there being much discussion in the literature about their propriety or usefulness. This volume evaluates the use of these models in macroeconomics, examining the justifications for their use and concluding that representative agent models are neither a proper nor a particularly useful means of studying aggregate behaviour.

Author: Robert E. Lucas Jr.
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674071212
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 517

View

Book Description
Robert Lucas is one of the outstanding monetary theorists of the past hundred years. Along with Knut Wicksell, Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, James Tobin, and Milton Friedman (his teacher), Lucas revolutionized our understanding of how money interacts with the real economy of production, consumption, and exchange. Lucas’s contributions are both methodological and substantive. Methodologically, he developed dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium models to analyze economic decision-makers operating through time in a complex, probabilistic environment. Substantively, he incorporated the quantity theory of money into these models and derived its implications for money growth, inflation, and interest rates in the long run. He also showed the different effects of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the stock of money on economic fluctuations, and helped to demonstrate that there was not a long-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation (the Phillips curve) that policy-makers could exploit. The twenty-one papers collected in this volume fall primarily into three categories: core monetary theory and public finance, asset pricing, and the real effects of monetary instability. Published between 1972 and 2007, they will inspire students and researchers who want to study the work of a master of economic modeling and to advance economics as a pure and applied science.

Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226978923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 613

View

Book Description
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Author: Edward Nelson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022668492X
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 602

View

Book Description
Second in a two-volume study of the Nobel Prize winner’s long career: “Nelson knows more about Milton Friedman’s economics than anyone else alive.” —Business Economics This study is the first to distill Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman’s vast body of writings into an authoritative account of his research, his policy views, and his interventions in public debate. With this ambitious new work, Edward Nelson closes the gap: Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States is the defining narrative on the famed economist, the first to grapple comprehensively with Friedman’s research output, economic framework, and legacy. This two-volume account provides a foundational introduction to Friedman’s role in several major economic debates that took place in the United States between 1932 and 1972. This second volume covers the years between 1960 and 1972—years that saw the publication of Friedman and Anna Schwartz’s Monetary History of the United States. The book also covers Friedman’s involvement in a number of debates in the 1960s and 1970s, on topics such as unemployment, inflation, consumer protection, and the environment. As a fellow monetary economist, Nelson writes from a unique vantage point, drawing on both his own expertise in monetary analysis and his deep familiarity with Friedman’s writings. Using extensive documentation, the book weaves together Friedman’s research contributions and his engagement in public debate, providing an unparalleled analysis of Friedman’s views on the economic developments of his day. “No previous biographer has Nelson’s deep and sophisticated understanding of monetary economics.” —Economic History