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Author: Tara Iyer Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real sector groups of variables include domestic aggregate demand indicators and foreign variables, while the monetary sector groups specify the underlying inflationary process in terms of the consumer price index (CPI) versus the wholesale price index given India's recent monetary policy regime switch to CPI inflation targeting. The predictive ability of over 3,000 BVAR models is assessed through a set of forecast evaluation statistics and compared with the forecasting accuracy of alternate econometric models including unrestricted and structural VARs. Key findings include that capital flows to India and CPI inflation have high informational content for India's GDP growth. The results of this study provide suggestive evidence that quarterly BVAR models of Indian growth have high predictive ability.
Author: Tara Iyer Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real sector groups of variables include domestic aggregate demand indicators and foreign variables, while the monetary sector groups specify the underlying inflationary process in terms of the consumer price index (CPI) versus the wholesale price index given India's recent monetary policy regime switch to CPI inflation targeting. The predictive ability of over 3,000 BVAR models is assessed through a set of forecast evaluation statistics and compared with the forecasting accuracy of alternate econometric models including unrestricted and structural VARs. Key findings include that capital flows to India and CPI inflation have high informational content for India's GDP growth. The results of this study provide suggestive evidence that quarterly BVAR models of Indian growth have high predictive ability.
Author: Imtinungsang Jamir Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 23
Book Description
The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought the world economy at standstill which brings huge challenges to major affected countries. The impact of this disease on economy is highly uncertain putting policymakers in difficult situation to formulate appropriate policy in a short time. India being the second most populous country in the world after China, there is no easy way to contain the virus from spreading. Early anticipation is that, this pandemic will give a major blow to nation's economy when the country is already experiencing continuous decline in GDP growth for the past few quarters. In order to better understand possible economic outcome, this paper attempts to model and forecast GDP growth rate of India for the next 11 quarters from Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2022. Using quarterly GDP data, Box-Jenkins methodology has been applied to forecast short-term GDP in ARIMA (1, 1, 4) model. The prediction made in this paper demonstrates worrying economy for India that even with contained outbreak and several stimulus measures taken by the government, the pandemic could have a significant impact on Indian economy in the short-run with no signs of recovery. The result indicates that India will continue to experience significant decline of GDP growth till the fourth quarter of 2022. However, the forecast made in this study is only indicative rather than definitive.
Author: Bruno S. Sergi Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing ISBN: 1803827513 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 353
Book Description
This volume focuses on core topics of economic disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic: changes in socio-cultural relationships, behavioural patterns and psychological attitudes governing human interaction, and government policies to stabilize the Indian economy and contribute to sustainable growth.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN: 9781513556055 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 203
Book Description
The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
Author: Lawrence Robert Klein Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: 1849802165 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 400
Book Description
In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Author: Peter Pauly Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9813220457 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 345
Book Description
Global econometric models have a long history. From the early 1970s to the present, as modeling techniques have advanced, different modeling paradigms have emerged and been used to support national and international policy making. One purpose of this volume — based on a conference in recognition of the seminal impact of Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences Lawrence R Klein, whose pioneering work has spawned the field of international econometric modeling — is to survey these developments from today's perspective.A second objective of the volume is to shed light on the wide range of attempts to broaden the scope of modeling on an international scale. Beyond new developments in traditional areas of the trade and financial flows, the volume reviews new approaches to the modeling of linkages between macroeconomic activity and individual economic units, new research on the analysis of trends in income distribution and economic wellbeing on a global scale, and innovative ideas about modeling the interactions between economic development and the environment.With the expansion of elaborated economic linkages, this volume makes an important contribution to the evolving literature of global econometric models.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513516175 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 208
Book Description
Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.
Author: Philipp Lepenies Publisher: Columbia University Press ISBN: 0231541430 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 203
Book Description
Widely used since the mid-twentieth century, GDP (gross domestic product) has become the world's most powerful statistical indicator of national development and progress. Practically all governments adhere to the idea that GDP growth is a primary economic target, and while criticism of this measure has grown, neither its champions nor its detractors deny its central importance in our political culture. In The Power of a Single Number, Philipp Lepenies recounts the lively history of GDP's political acceptance—and eventual dominance. Locating the origins of GDP measurements in Renaissance England, Lepenies explores the social and political factors that originally hindered its use. It was not until the early 1900s that an ingenuous lone-wolf economist revived and honed GDP's statistical approach. These ideas were then extended by John Maynard Keynes, and a more focused study of national income was born. American economists furthered this work by emphasizing GDP's ties to social well-being, setting the stage for its ascent. GDP finally achieved its singular status during World War II, assuming the importance it retains today. Lepenies's absorbing account helps us understand the personalities and popular events that propelled GDP to supremacy and clarifies current debates over the wisdom of the number's rule.
Author: Tara Iyer
Author: Tara Iyer
Author: Imtinungsang Jamir
Author: Stephen Murchison
Author: Bruno S. Sergi
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: 
Author: Lawrence Robert Klein
Author: Peter Pauly
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: Philipp Lepenies