Author: Petko Ivaylov KusevPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Protective Decision-Making Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Petko Ivaylov KusevAdvances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Mohammed AbdellaouiPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540684360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
Book Description
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty
Author: Institute of MedicinePublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309290236
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 280
Book Description
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Decision-Making in High Risk Organizations Under Stress Conditions
Author: Anthony J. SpurginPublisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1498721230
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 191
Book Description
This book discusses management decision-making under accident conditions as a vehicle to confirm the importance of clear decision-making guided by a systems approach on how an organization functions related to the role of managers, operators, and the operation of the plant. The book shows how to effectively assess the reliability of an organization particularly those organizations responsible for critical infrastructure. The authors have used Stafford Beer’s cybernetic model as a basis to model the behavior and reliability of such organizations. A series of case studies are used to draw conclusions not only how training, experience, and education can improve the strategy and response of management to reduce the probability of an economic or social disaster, but also draw attention to the fact that managers need to be made aware of the consequences of their decisions. Poor management decisions made under stress conditions can lead to the collapse of an organization together with its underlying business, possibly linked to a social disaster with loss of life. Some technology-ignorant management decisions even under non-stress conditions can lead to dangerous situations, which can increase the economic burden placed on an organization. This book describes such situations in order to promote improvement in organizational preparedness by training, experience, and education to reduce safety and economic risks. This book offers: • Case studies of accidents that have affected different HROs (high-risk organizations) and others, due to poor decision-making by management • Training methods (advocated by Admiral Hyman Rickover, adopted by military bodies and others) to prepare staff to make critical decisions under difficult conditions and examine their applicability to training managers of high-risk facilities • Documentation on how making decisions in difficult situations have psychological constraints related to the degree of preparedness and the tools available to aid the decision maker(s) • Studies on the key actions taken before, during, and after accidents and how these management decisions can affect accident propagation, and how one could improve management decision-making by the use of training in decision-making and an understanding of Ross Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety. • Simulation techniques to improve training of front-line operators and management • Consideration of cost and investment evaluations and how they can distort the selection of tactics and measures that ensure successful operations and avoidance of accidents
Risk and Decision Making
Author: Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyberattacks
Author: National Research CouncilPublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309160359
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 400
Book Description
In a world of increasing dependence on information technology, the prevention of cyberattacks on a nation's important computer and communications systems and networks is a problem that looms large. Given the demonstrated limitations of passive cybersecurity defense measures, it is natural to consider the possibility that deterrence might play a useful role in preventing cyberattacks against the United States and its vital interests. At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the National Research Council undertook a two-phase project aimed to foster a broad, multidisciplinary examination of strategies for deterring cyberattacks on the United States and of the possible utility of these strategies for the U.S. government. The first phase produced a letter report providing basic information needed to understand the nature of the problem and to articulate important questions that can drive research regarding ways of more effectively preventing, discouraging, and inhibiting hostile activity against important U.S. information systems and networks. The second phase of the project entailed selecting appropriate experts to write papers on questions raised in the letter report. A number of experts, identified by the committee, were commissioned to write these papers under contract with the National Academy of Sciences. Commissioned papers were discussed at a public workshop held June 10-11, 2010, in Washington, D.C., and authors revised their papers after the workshop. Although the authors were selected and the papers reviewed and discussed by the committee, the individually authored papers do not reflect consensus views of the committee, and the reader should view these papers as offering points of departure that can stimulate further work on the topics discussed. The papers presented in this volume are published essentially as received from the authors, with some proofreading corrections made as limited time allowed.
Principles of Risk Analysis
Author: Charles YoePublisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439857504
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 576
Book Description
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i
Primer on Risk Analysis
Author: Charles YoePublisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781138423138
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know�and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don�t know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. This primer tackles the question, "what is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. Readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks�risk management, assessment, and communication. Making a distinction between knowledge uncertainty and natural variability, the book also introduces a down-to-earth approach to decision making under uncertainty. Extensive examples illustrate the applicability of the risk analysis principles. The book�s simple and straightforward style�based on the author�s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator�strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles of risk analysis in a manner that enables readers to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. A companion volume, Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles of risk analysis�the "how to." Additional exercises, as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation Decision
PRIMER OF RISK ANALYSIS
Author: CHARLES. YOEPublisher:
ISBN: 9781138545656
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Managing Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Richard FribergPublisher:
ISBN: 9780262331555
Category : Corporations
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making.