Author: Daryl J. Daley
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Probabilities
Languages : en
Pages : 316

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Book Description

Author: David Vere-Jones
Publisher: Pageoph Topical Volumes
ISBN:
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 382

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Book Description
Statistical Seismology aims to bridge the gap between physics-based and statistics-based models. This volume provides a combination of reviews, methodological studies, and applications, which point to promising efforts in this field. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers alike, who are interested in using stochastic modeling for probing the nature of earthquake phenomena, as well as an essential ingredient for earthquake forecasting.

Author: Cliffort H. Thurber
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401595364
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 271

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Book Description
Advances in Seismic Event Location provides a broad overview of the fundamental issues involved in seismic event location, and presents a variety of state-of-the-art location methods and applications at a wide range of spatial scales. Three important themes in the book are: seismic monitoring for a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), seismic event location in three-dimensional Earth models, and methods for multiple-event location. Each chapter contains background material to help readers less familiar with the topics covered, as well as to provide abundant references for readers interested in probing deeper into a topic. However, most of the emphasis is on recent advances in methodology and their application. Audience: The book is intended primarily for academic and professional researchers and graduate students in seismology.

Author: Jack Baker
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781108425056
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 600

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Book Description
Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.

Author: Marco Mucciarelli
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1402091966
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 386

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Book Description
The current state-of-the-art allows seismologists to give statistical estimates of the probability of a large earthquake striking a given region, identifying the areas in which the seismic hazard is the highest. However, the usefulness of these estimates is limited, without information about local subsoil conditions and the vulnerability of buildings. Identifying the sites where a local ampli?cation of seismic shaking will occur, and identifying the buildings that will be the weakest under the seismic shaking is the only strategy that allows effective defence against earthquake damage at an affordable cost, by applying selective reinforcement only to the structures that need it. Unfortunately, too often the Earth’s surface acted as a divide between seism- ogists and engineers. Now it is becoming clear that the building behaviour largely depends on the seismic input and the buildings on their turn act as seismic sources, in an intricate interplay that non-linear phenomena make even more complex. These phenomena are often the cause of observed damage enhancement during past ear- quakes. While research may pursue complex models to fully understand soil dyn- ics under seismic loading, we need, at the same time, simple models valid on average, whose results can be easily transferred to end users without prohibitive expenditure. Very complex models require a large amount of data that can only be obtained at a very high cost or may be impossible to get at all.

Author: Jack R Benjamin
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486780724
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 704

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Book Description
"This text covers the development of decision theory and related applications of probability. Extensive examples and illustrations cultivate students' appreciation for applications, including strength of materials, soil mechanics, construction planning, and water-resource design. Emphasis on fundamentals makes the material accessible to students trained in classical statistics and provides a brief introduction to probability. 1970 edition"--

Author: Nikolaos Limnios
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119825040
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 336

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Book Description
The study of earthquakes is a multidisciplinary field, an amalgam of geodynamics, mathematics, engineering and more. The overriding commonality between them all is the presence of natural randomness. Stochastic studies (probability, stochastic processes and statistics) can be of different types, for example, the black box approach (one state), the white box approach (multi-state), the simulation of different aspects, and so on. This book has the advantage of bringing together a group of international authors, known for their earthquake-specific approaches, to cover a wide array of these myriad aspects. A variety of topics are presented, including statistical nonparametric and parametric methods, a multi-state system approach, earthquake simulators, post-seismic activity models, time series Markov models with regression, scaling properties and multifractal approaches, selfcorrecting models, the linked stress release model, Markovian arrival models, Poisson-based detection techniques, change point detection techniques on seismicity models, and, finally, semi-Markov models for earthquake forecasting.

Author: Tsuneji Rikitake
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 432

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Book Description

Author: V. Pisarenko
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9048191718
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 199

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Book Description
Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.

Author: Mary S. Lazaridou-Varotsos
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642244068
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 259

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Book Description
As evidenced dramatically and tragically in 2011 alone,earthquakes cause devastation and their consequences in terms of human suffering and economic disaster can last for years or even decades. The VAN method of earthquake prediction, based on the detection and measurement of low frequency electric signals called Seismic Electric Signals (SES), has been researched and evaluated over 30 years, and now constitutes the only earthquake prediction effort that has led to concrete successful results. This book recounts the history of the VAN method, detailing how it has developed and been tested under international scrutiny. Earthquake Prediction by Seismic Electric Signals • describes, step by step, the development of the VAN method since 1981; • explains both the theoretical model underpinning the research and the physical properties of SES; • analyzes the SES recordings and the prediction for each major earthquake in Greece over the last 25 years; • introduces a new time domain, natural time, which plays a key role in predicting impending catastrophic events.