Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Probabilistic Risk Analysis PDF full book. Access full book title Probabilistic Risk Analysis by Tim Bedford. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Tim Bedford Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521773201 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 228
Book Description
Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.
Author: Tim Bedford Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521773201 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 228
Book Description
Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.
Author: Hiromitsu Kumamoto Publisher: Wiley-IEEE Press ISBN: 9780780360174 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Electrical Engineering Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists Second Edition "State of the art in risk analysis...[this book] projects the technology into the next decade. Congratulations to the authors on a virtuoso performance." -Charles Donaghey, University of Houston "A very useful reference to the academic and government communities, and junior engineering staff within nuclear, chemical, transportation, aerospace, and other industries." -Yovan Lukic, Arizona Public Service Company As the demands of government agencies and insurance companies escalate, societal risk assessment and management become increasingly critical to the development and use of engineered systems in the full range of industrial installations. Packed with real-world examples and practical mathematical and statistical methods for large, complex systems, this definitive text and sourcebook gives you the guidance you need for thorough and conclusive study. You'll find new and updated coverage of all the key topics related to risk analysis: * Probabilistic nature of risk * Qualitative and quantitative risk assessments * System decomposition * Legal and regulatory risks * And much more! The authors also provide end-of-chapter problems and a course outline. Complete with a new, automated, fault tree synthesis method using semantic networks. Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists, Second Edition will be of value to anyone working with engineered systems. Also of Interest from IEEE Press... Successful Patents and Patenting for Engineers and Scientists edited by Michael A. Lechter, Esq. 1995 Softcover 432 pp IEEE Order No. PP4478 ISBN 0-7803-1086-1 Metric Units and Conversion Charts A Metrication Handbook for Engineers, Technologists, and Scientists Second Edition Theodore Wildi 1995 Softcover 144 pp IEEE Order No. PP4044 ISBN 0-7803-1050-0 The Probability Tutoring Book An Intuitive Course for Engineers and Scientists (And Everyone Else!) Carol Ash 1993 Softcover 480 pp IEEE Order No. PP2881 ISBN 0-7803-1051-9
Author: M. Stewart Publisher: Springer ISBN: 0412805707 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 274
Book Description
Probabilistic risk and hazard assessments are applied to a wide range of engineering systems, mainly for regulatory reasons needed for development consent, system certification and occupational health and safety issues. The purpose of this book is to raise awareness of the limitations, uncertainties and other issues inherent in probabilistic risk analysis procedures. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems describes: the importance of probabilistic risk assessment in decision making, i.e. risk management; types of risk and probabilistic risk analysis procedures; data needed for the conduct of probabilistic risk analysis; and acceptable/tolerable risk and other risk acceptance criteria. In essence, the book provides a multi-disciplinary and integrated explanation of risk assessment procedures that will enable the non-specialist reader to gain valuable insights into the development of risk analysis procedures. Practising engineers and graduate engineering students across a range of disciplines will find this book immensely useful.
Author: Dana Kelly Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1849961875 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 230
Book Description
Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment provides a Bayesian foundation for framing probabilistic problems and performing inference on these problems. Inference in the book employs a modern computational approach known as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The MCMC approach may be implemented using custom-written routines or existing general purpose commercial or open-source software. This book uses an open-source program called OpenBUGS (commonly referred to as WinBUGS) to solve the inference problems that are described. A powerful feature of OpenBUGS is its automatic selection of an appropriate MCMC sampling scheme for a given problem. The authors provide analysis “building blocks” that can be modified, combined, or used as-is to solve a variety of challenging problems. The MCMC approach used is implemented via textual scripts similar to a macro-type programming language. Accompanying most scripts is a graphical Bayesian network illustrating the elements of the script and the overall inference problem being solved. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment also covers the important topics of MCMC convergence and Bayesian model checking. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment is aimed at scientists and engineers who perform or review risk analyses. It provides an analytical structure for combining data and information from various sources to generate estimates of the parameters of uncertainty distributions used in risk and reliability models.
Author: Tarannom Parhizkar Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030880982 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 170
Book Description
This book proposes a new approach to dynamic and online risk assessment of automated and autonomous marine systems, taking into account different environmental and operational conditions. The book presents lessons learnt from dynamic positioning incidents and accidents, and discusses the challenges of risk assessment of complex systems. The book begins by introducing dynamic and online risk assessment, before presenting automated and autonomous marine systems, as well as numerous dynamic positioning incidents. It then discusses human interactions with technology and explores how to quantify human error. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and online risk assessment are both considered fully, including case studies with the application of assisting operators in decision making in emergency situations. Finally, areas for future research are suggested. This practical volume offers tools and methodologies to help operators make better decisions and improve the safety of automated and autonomous marine systems. It provides a guideline for researchers and practitioners to perform dynamic probabilistic and online risk assessment, which also should be applicable to other complex systems outside the marine and maritime domain, such as nuclear power plants, chemical processes, autonomous transport systems, and space shuttles.
Author: Tunc Aldemir Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9813225629 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 554
Book Description
Over the past 30 years, numerous concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of static modeling approaches such as the event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology to adequately account for the impact of process/hardware/software/firmware/human interactions on nuclear power plant safety assessment, and methodologies to augment the ET/FT approach have been proposed. Often referred to as dynamic probabilistic risk/safety assessment (DPRA/DPSA) methodologies, which use a time-dependent phenomenological model of system evolution along with a model of its stochastic behavior to model for possible dependencies among failure events. The book contains a collection of papers that describe at existing plant level applicable DPRA/DPSA tools, as well as techniques that can be used to augment the ET/FT approach when needed.
Author: Hiromitsu Kumamoto Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1846286824 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 263
Book Description
This book is a methodological approach to the goal-based safety design procedure that will soon be an international requirement. This is the first single volume book to describe how to satisfy safety goals by modern reliability engineering. Its focus is on the quantitative aspects of the international standards using a methodological approach. Case studies illustrate the methodologies presented.
Author: Cornelia Spitzer Publisher: Springer ISBN: 0857294105 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 3803
Book Description
A collection of papers presented at the PSAM 7 – ESREL ’04 conference in June 2004, reflecting a wide variety of disciplines, such as principles and theory of reliability and risk analysis, systems modelling and simulation, consequence assessment, human and organisational factors, structural reliability methods, software reliability and safety, insights and lessons from risk studies and management/decision making. This volume covers both well-established practices and open issues in these fields, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and those where more development is needed.
Author: Igor Rychlik Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540395210 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 287
Book Description
This text presents notions and ideas at the foundations of a statistical treatment of risks. The focus is on statistical applications within the field of engineering risk and safety analysis. Coverage includes Bayesian methods. Such knowledge facilitates the understanding of the influence of random phenomena and gives a deeper understanding of the role of probability in risk analysis. The text is written for students who have studied elementary undergraduate courses in engineering mathematics, perhaps including a minor course in statistics. This book differs from typical textbooks in its verbal approach to many explanations and examples.
Author: John C. Lee Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470907568 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 504
Book Description
The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems. The second half of the book covers the safety analysis of nuclear energy systems, an analysis of major accidents and incidents that occurred in commercial nuclear plants, applications of PRA techniques to the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (focusing on a major PRA study for five nuclear power plants), practical PRA examples, and emerging techniques in the structure of dynamic event trees and fault trees that can provide a more realistic representation of complex sequences of events. The book concludes with a discussion on passive safety features of advanced nuclear energy systems under development and approaches taken for risk-informed regulations for nuclear plants.
Author: Tim Bedford
Author: Tim Bedford
Author: Hiromitsu Kumamoto
Author: M. Stewart
Author: Dana Kelly
Author: Tarannom Parhizkar
Author: Tunc Aldemir
Author: Hiromitsu Kumamoto
Author: Cornelia Spitzer
Author: Igor Rychlik
Author: John C. Lee