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Author: Peter J. Coughlin Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 0521360528 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 276
Book Description
Coughlin provides the most comprehensive and integrated analysis of probabilistic voting models available, also developing further his important contributions. Probabilistic voting theory is the mathematical theory of candidate behavior in or in anticipation of elections in which candidates are unsure what voters' preferences will be on all or most issues, which is true of most governmental elections. The theory asks first whether optimal candidate strategies can be determined, given uncertainty about voter preferences, and if so, what exactly those strategies are, given various circumstances. It allows the theorist to predict what public policies will be supported and what laws passed by elected officials when in office and what positions will be taken by them when running in elections. One of the leading contributors to this rapidly developing literature, which is at the leading edge of public choice theory, Coughlin both reviews the existing literature and presents new results that unify and extend developments in the theory that have been scattered in the literature.
Author: Peter J. Coughlin Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 0521360528 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 276
Book Description
Coughlin provides the most comprehensive and integrated analysis of probabilistic voting models available, also developing further his important contributions. Probabilistic voting theory is the mathematical theory of candidate behavior in or in anticipation of elections in which candidates are unsure what voters' preferences will be on all or most issues, which is true of most governmental elections. The theory asks first whether optimal candidate strategies can be determined, given uncertainty about voter preferences, and if so, what exactly those strategies are, given various circumstances. It allows the theorist to predict what public policies will be supported and what laws passed by elected officials when in office and what positions will be taken by them when running in elections. One of the leading contributors to this rapidly developing literature, which is at the leading edge of public choice theory, Coughlin both reviews the existing literature and presents new results that unify and extend developments in the theory that have been scattered in the literature.
Author: Emmanuel Farjoun Publisher: Verso Books ISBN: 1788737040 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 324
Book Description
Classic work of political economics In this classic work of political economy, Emmanuel Farjoun and Moshé Machover rebuild two fundamental concepts of the discipline: price and profit. They redefine the basic notions of political economy, relying on probabilistic–statistical methods of the kind used in the modern foundations of other sciences. This amounts to a rigorous new foundation of the labour theory of value. A defining work of Econophysics, republished for the first time since 1983, Laws of Chaos remains a challenging, innovative work of Marxist economics.
Author: David Austen-Smith Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 354027295X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 332
Book Description
Social choices, about expenditures on government programs, or about public policy more broadly, or indeed from any conceivable set of alternatives, are determined by politics. This book is a collection of essays that tie together the fields spanned by Jeffrey S. Banks' research on this subject. It examines the strategic aspects of political decision-making, including the choices of voters in committees, the positioning of candidates in electoral campaigns, and the behavior of parties in legislatures. The chapters of this book contribute to the theory of voting with incomplete information, to the literature on Downsian and probabilistic voting models of elections, to the theory of social choice in distributive environments, and to the theory of optimal dynamic decision-making. The essays employ a spectrum of research methods, from game-theoretic analysis, to empirical investigation, to experimental testing.
Author: Jeffrey A. Friedman Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0190938048 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 272
Book Description
Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
Author: R. Calvert Publisher: Taylor & Francis ISBN: 1136459693 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 73
Book Description
Surveys the models of political phenomena that incorporate imperfect information, concentrating on 'full-rationality' approaches as opposed to bounded rationality models.
Author: Claudio Cioffi-Revilla Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521589154 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 372
Book Description
Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics. It affects all important issues of governance and policy, in both domestic and international contexts. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon with well-defined principles and substantive properties. Specific applications of this theory of political uncertainty are demonstrated in diverse areas of politics, examining such questions as when and how wars break out, when and how governments collapse, and when and how political cooperation emerges. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding such complex and fundamental issues.
Author: Rens Bod Publisher: A Bradford Book ISBN: 0262025361 Category : Language Arts & Disciplines Languages : en Pages : 465
Book Description
For the past forty years, linguistics has been dominated by the idea that language is categorical and linguistic competence discrete. It has become increasingly clear, however, that many levels of representation, from phonemes to sentence structure, show probabilistic properties, as does the language faculty. Probabilistic linguistics conceptualizes categories as distributions and views knowledge of language not as a minimal set of categorical constraints but as a set of gradient rules that may be characterized by a statistical distribution. Whereas categorical approaches focus on the endpoints of distributions of linguistic phenomena, probabilistic approaches focus on the gradient middle ground. Probabilistic linguistics integrates all the progress made by linguistics thus far with a probabilistic perspective. This book presents a comprehensive introduction to probabilistic approaches to linguistic inquiry. It covers the application of probabilistic techniques to phonology, morphology, semantics, syntax, language acquisition, psycholinguistics, historical linguistics, and sociolinguistics. It also includes a tutorial on elementary probability theory and probabilistic grammars.
Author: Alain Desrosières Publisher: Harvard University Press ISBN: 9780674009691 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 386
Book Description
Begins with study of history of statistics, and shows how the evolution of modern statistics has been inextricably bound up with the knowledge and power of governments.
Author: Peter J. Coughlin
Author: Peter J. Coughlin
Author: William H. Panning
Author: Emmanuel Farjoun
Author: David Austen-Smith
Author: Jeffrey A. Friedman
Author: R. Calvert
Author: William Henry Panning
Author: Claudio Cioffi-Revilla
Author: Rens Bod
Author: Alain Desrosières