PROBABILISTIC ANALYSES OF WASTE PACKAGE QUANTITIES IMPACTED BY POTENTIAL IGNEOUS DISRUPTION AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN. PDF Download
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Author: M. G. Wallace Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate ranges for the numbers of waste packages that could be damaged in a potential future igneous event through a repository at Yucca Mountain. The analyses include disruption from an intrusive igneous event and from an extrusive volcanic event. This analysis supports the evaluation of the potential consequences of future igneous activity as part of the total system performance assessment for the license application for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The first scenario, igneous intrusion, investigated the case where one or more igneous dikes intersect the repository. A swarm of dikes was characterized by distributions of length, width, azimuth, and number of dikes and the spacings between them. Through the use in part of a latin hypercube simulator and a modified video game engine, mathematical relationships were built between those parameters and the number of waste packages hit. Corresponding cumulative distribution function curves (CDFs) for the number of waste packages hit under several different scenarios were calculated. Variations in dike thickness ranges, as well as in repository magma bulkhead positions were examined through sensitivity studies. It was assumed that all waste packages in an emplacement drift would be impacted if that drift were intersected by a dike. Over 10,000 individual simulations were performed. Based on these calculations, out of a total of over 11,000 planned waste packages distributed over an area of approximately 5.5 km{sup 2}, the median number of waste packages impacted was roughly 1/10 of the total. Individual cases ranged from 0 waste packages to the entire inventory being impacted. The igneous intrusion analysis involved an explicit characterization of dike-drift intersections, built upon various distributions that reflect the uncertainties associated with the inputs. The second igneous scenario, volcanic eruption (eruptive conduits), considered the effects of conduits formed in association with a volcanic eruption through the repository. Mathematical relations were built between the resulting conduit areas and the fraction of the repository area occupied by waste packages. This relation was used in conjunction with a joint distribution incorporating variability in eruptive conduit diameters and in the number of eruptive conduits that could intersect the repository.
Author: M. G. Wallace Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate ranges for the numbers of waste packages that could be damaged in a potential future igneous event through a repository at Yucca Mountain. The analyses include disruption from an intrusive igneous event and from an extrusive volcanic event. This analysis supports the evaluation of the potential consequences of future igneous activity as part of the total system performance assessment for the license application for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The first scenario, igneous intrusion, investigated the case where one or more igneous dikes intersect the repository. A swarm of dikes was characterized by distributions of length, width, azimuth, and number of dikes and the spacings between them. Through the use in part of a latin hypercube simulator and a modified video game engine, mathematical relationships were built between those parameters and the number of waste packages hit. Corresponding cumulative distribution function curves (CDFs) for the number of waste packages hit under several different scenarios were calculated. Variations in dike thickness ranges, as well as in repository magma bulkhead positions were examined through sensitivity studies. It was assumed that all waste packages in an emplacement drift would be impacted if that drift were intersected by a dike. Over 10,000 individual simulations were performed. Based on these calculations, out of a total of over 11,000 planned waste packages distributed over an area of approximately 5.5 km{sup 2}, the median number of waste packages impacted was roughly 1/10 of the total. Individual cases ranged from 0 waste packages to the entire inventory being impacted. The igneous intrusion analysis involved an explicit characterization of dike-drift intersections, built upon various distributions that reflect the uncertainties associated with the inputs. The second igneous scenario, volcanic eruption (eruptive conduits), considered the effects of conduits formed in association with a volcanic eruption through the repository. Mathematical relations were built between the resulting conduit areas and the fraction of the repository area occupied by waste packages. This relation was used in conjunction with a joint distribution incorporating variability in eruptive conduit diameters and in the number of eruptive conduits that could intersect the repository.
Author: M. Wallace Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 110
Book Description
The purpose of this scientific analysis report is to document calculations of the number of waste packages that could be damaged in a potential future igneous event through a repository at Yucca Mountain. The analyses include disruption from an intrusive igneous event and from an extrusive volcanic event. This analysis supports the evaluation of the potential consequences of future igneous activity as part of the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). Igneous activity is a disruptive event that is included in the TSPA-LA analyses. Two igneous activity scenarios are considered: (1) The igneous intrusion groundwater release scenario (also called the igneous intrusion scenario) considers the in situ damage to waste packages or failure of waste packages that occurs if they are engulfed or otherwise affected by magma as a result of an igneous intrusion. (2) The volcanic eruption scenario depicts the direct release of radioactive waste due to an intrusion that intersects the repository followed by a volcanic eruption at the surface. An igneous intrusion is defined as the ascent of a basaltic dike or dike system (i.e., a set or swarm of multiple dikes comprising a single intrusive event) to repository level, where it intersects drifts. Magma that does reach the surface from igneous activity is an eruption (or extrusive activity) (Jackson 1997 [DIRS 109119], pp. 224, 333). The objective of this analysis is to develop a probabilistic measure of the number of waste packages that could be affected by each of the two scenarios.
Author: United States Department of Energy. Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Publisher: ISBN: Category : Radioactive waste disposal Languages : en Pages : 34
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Radioactive waste disposal in the ground Languages : en Pages : 850
Book Description
The purpose of this environmental impact statement (EIS) is to provide information on potential environmental impacts that could result from a Proposed Action to construct, operate and monitor, and eventually close a geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site in Nye County, Nevada. The EIS also provides information on potential environmental impacts from an alternative referred to as the No-Action Alternative, under which there would be no development of a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 82
Book Description
In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85 x 10−6/yr, 1.26 x 10−5/yr). Also, using these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 104 years is (1.0 x 10−3, 6.7 x 10−3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.
Author: M. G. Wallace
Author: M. G. Wallace
Author: M. Wallace
Author: Geological Survey (U.S.)
Author: Thomas C. Hanks
Author: United States Department of Energy. Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management
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