Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Main report PDF Download

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Nuclear power plants
Languages : en
Pages : 438

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Author: Igor Linkov
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401009872
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 451

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Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks against the potential effects of implementing environmental policies - considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Lisbon was an important step in the development and application of cost efficient methods of risk assessment especiaIly within the constraints of a budget. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop a range of approaches starting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use of risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental chaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarize the positions of Drs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use of often-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can be justified, given evolving regulatory institutions and limited resources.

Author: Olga A. Smirnova
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319457616
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 374

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Dr. Smirnova's updated text is devoted to the theoretical studies of radiation effects on mammals. It summarizes 35 years of results the author obtained from analyzing dose rate equivalents for the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) and for Solar Particles Events (SPE). This edition also includes two new chapters on skin epidermal epithelium and risk assessment for myeloid leukemia, as well as extended revisions addressing the radiation effects on the blood-forming system. Mathematical models are used to explain the effects of both acute and chronic irradiation on the dynamics of vital body systems, like the hematopoietic system, the development of autoimmune diseases, and the mortality dynamics in homogeneous and nonhomogeneous mammalian populations. The proposed methodology of these studies, the models themselves, and the obtained results are of a great theoretical significance and can find wide practical use.

Author: Louis A. Cox
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780306435379
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 736

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This volume contains the proceedings of the 1986 annual meeting and conference of the Society for Risk Analysis. It provides a detailed view of both mature disciplines and emerging areas within the fields of health, safety, and environmental risk analysis as they existed in 1986. In selecting and organizing topics for this conference, we sought both (i) to identify and include new ideas and application areas that would be of lasting interest to risk analysts and to users of risk analysis results, and (ii) to include innovative methods and applications in established areas of risk analysis. In the three years since the conference, many of the topics presented there for the first time to a broad risk analysis audience have become well developed-and sometimes hotly debated-areas of applied risk research. Several, such as the public health hazards from indoor air pollutants, radon in the home, high-voltage electric fields, and the AIDS epidemic, have been the subjects of headlines since 1986. Older areas, such as hazardous waste site ranking and remediation, air emissions dispersion modeling and exposure assessment, transportation safety, seismic and nuclear risk assessment, and occupational safety in the chemical industry, have continued to receive new treatments and to benefit from advances in quantitative risk assessment methods, as documented in the theoretical and methodological papers in this volume. A theme of the meeting was the importance of new technologies and the new and uncertain risks that they create.

Author:
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ISBN:
Category : Power resources
Languages : en
Pages : 782

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Author: Ian Fairlie
Publisher: Ethics International Press
ISBN: 1804411949
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 333

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This book remembers and commemorates many brave radiation scientists, most of whom are no longer with us. These scientists published findings that radiation risks were more dangerous than officially accepted at the time. However they often suffered as a result from official displeasure, defamatory articles, and public obloquy. Scientific findings, especially recently, have revealed that these defamed and/or disadvantaged scientists were actually correct in their assessments that official risk factors for radiation were too low and needed to be increased. The lives of these scientists are discussed, from early radiation pioneers including Ernest Rutherford, Hermann Mueller and Linus Pauling, to contemporary scientists such as Steve Wing.

Author: Sven Ove Hansson
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319305492
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 354

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​This book describes argumentative tools and strategies that can be used to guide policy decisions under conditions of great uncertainty. Contributing authors explore methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis, showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about policy issues involving great uncertainty. The first part of the work explores how to deal in a systematic way with decision-making when there may be plural perspectives on the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of what we do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for prioritizing among uncertain dangers, for determining how decisions should be framed, for choosing a suitable time frame for a decision, and for systematically choosing among different decision options. Case studies are presented in the second part of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas of climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, and financial markets. In one example, argumentation analysis is applied to proposals to solve the climate problem with various technological manipulations of the natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough investigation of such a proposal, doubt remains as to whether all the potential risks have been identified. In such discussions, conventional risk analysis does not have much to contribute since it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereas the argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to systematize discussions.

Author: Tim Bedford
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521773201
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 228

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Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.

Author: M. P. Little
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780160628771
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 63

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Author: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Nuclear engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 304

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