Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download System Priors PDF full book. Access full book title System Priors by Michal Andrle. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Michal Andrle Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475548818 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 26
Book Description
This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.
Author: Michal Andrle Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475548818 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 26
Book Description
This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.
Author: Stuart Jackson Publisher: eBookIt.com ISBN: 1456620231 Category : Fiction Languages : en Pages : 209
Book Description
The poppy. Opium. Morphine. Heroin. The Sumerians — thousands of years before the birth of Christ — knew of the powers of the wild poppy plant. Today 40% of the world's production is grown in Tasmania. The Poppy fields of this island state are the most secure in the world. Or are they? David Barron of the Federal Police is sent to check security and uncovers a seemingly simple plan to steal from the protected fields. Soon the simple plan becomes complex — murders, suicides, bribery — and a trail that leads into the ranks of the Federal Police itself. James Christie — captured by the police at the scene of a brutal killing — holds the key to ensuring that Barron can bring the case to a speedy conclusion. But Christie is whisked away in a daring gun battle outside Melbourne. Barron must work feverishly if he is to stop his work coming unravelled. First he has to find Christie, and a mysterious woman is going to make it difficult for him.
Author: Martin Heale Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0198702531 Category : Architecture Languages : en Pages : 471
Book Description
The importance of the medieval abbot needs no particular emphasis. The monastic superiors of late medieval England ruled over thousands of monks and canons, who swore to them vows of obedience; they were prominent figures in royal and church government; and collectively they controlled properties worth around double the Crown's annual ordinary income. Moreover, as guardians of regular observance and the primary interface between their monastery and the wider world, abbots and priors were pivotal to the effective functioning and well-being of the monastic order. The Abbots and Priors of Late Medieval and Reformation England provides the first detailed study of English male monastic superiors, exploring their evolving role and reputation between the fourteenth and sixteenth centuries. Individual chapters examine the election and selection of late medieval monastic heads; the internal functions of the superior as the father of the community; the head of house as administrator; abbatial living standards and modes of display; monastic superiors' public role in service of the Church and Crown; their external relations and reputation; the interaction between monastic heads and the government in Henry VIII's England; the Dissolution of the monasteries; and the afterlives of abbots and priors following the suppression of their houses. This study of monastic leadership sheds much valuable light on the religious houses of late medieval and early Tudor England, including their spiritual life, administration, spending priorities, and their multi-faceted relations with the outside world. The Abbots and Priors of Late Medieval and Reformation England also elucidates the crucial part played by monastic superiors in the dramatic events of the 1530s, when many heads surrendered their monasteries into the hands of Henry VIII.
Author: Stefan Zeugner Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451873492 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts posterior model distributions to data quality. Analytically, existing work on the hyper-g-prior is complemented by posterior expressions essential to fully Bayesian analysis and to sound numerical implementation. A simulation experiment illustrates the implications for posterior inference. Furthermore, an application to determinants of economic growth identifies several covariates whose robustness differs considerably from previous results.
Author: Michal Andrle Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475555822 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 18
Book Description
The paper introduces “system priors”, their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically-meaningful priors about high-level model properties. The generality of system priors are illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that most of its dynamics comes from business-cycle frequencies.
Author: Gauri Sankar Datta Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 146122036X Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 138
Book Description
This is the first book on the topic of probability matching priors. It targets researchers, Bayesian and frequentist; graduate students in Statistics.
Author: Raphael Urs Keusch Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand ISBN: 3866287682 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 275
Book Description
Normal with unknown variance (NUV) priors are a central idea of sparse Bayesian learning and allow variational representations of non-Gaussian priors. More specifically, such variational representations can be seen as parameterized Gaussians, wherein the parameters are generally unknown. The advantage is apparent: for fixed parameters, NUV priors are Gaussian, and hence computationally compatible with Gaussian models. Moreover, working with (linear-)Gaussian models is particularly attractive since the Gaussian distribution is closed under affine transformations, marginalization, and conditioning. Interestingly, the variational representation proves to be rather universal than restrictive: many common sparsity-promoting priors (among them, in particular, the Laplace prior) can be represented in this manner. In estimation problems, parameters or variables of the underlying model are often subject to constraints (e.g., discrete-level constraints). Such constraints cannot adequately be represented by linear-Gaussian models and generally require special treatment. To handle such constraints within a linear-Gaussian setting, we extend the idea of NUV priors beyond its original use for sparsity. In particular, we study compositions of existing NUV priors, referred to as composite NUV priors, and show that many commonly used model constraints can be represented in this way.
Author: Geoffrey McLachlan Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 047165406X Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 419
Book Description
An up-to-date, comprehensive account of major issues in finitemixture modeling This volume provides an up-to-date account of the theory andapplications of modeling via finite mixture distributions. With anemphasis on the applications of mixture models in both mainstreamanalysis and other areas such as unsupervised pattern recognition,speech recognition, and medical imaging, the book describes theformulations of the finite mixture approach, details itsmethodology, discusses aspects of its implementation, andillustrates its application in many common statisticalcontexts. Major issues discussed in this book include identifiabilityproblems, actual fitting of finite mixtures through use of the EMalgorithm, properties of the maximum likelihood estimators soobtained, assessment of the number of components to be used in themixture, and the applicability of asymptotic theory in providing abasis for the solutions to some of these problems. The author alsoconsiders how the EM algorithm can be scaled to handle the fittingof mixture models to very large databases, as in data miningapplications. This comprehensive, practical guide: * Provides more than 800 references-40% published since 1995 * Includes an appendix listing available mixture software * Links statistical literature with machine learning and patternrecognition literature * Contains more than 100 helpful graphs, charts, and tables Finite Mixture Models is an important resource for both applied andtheoretical statisticians as well as for researchers in the manyareas in which finite mixture models can be used to analyze data.
Author: Michal Andrle
Author: Michal Andrle
Author: Stuart Jackson
Author: Martin Heale
Author: Stefan Zeugner
Author: Michal Andrle
Author: Gauri Sankar Datta
Author: Raphael Urs Keusch
Author: Thomas Hervey
Author: Thomas Hervey
Author: Geoffrey McLachlan