Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility PDF Download

Author: Masato Ubukata
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Book Description
"This article analyzes whether daily realized volatility, which is the sum of squared intraday returns over a day, is useful for option pricing. Different realized volatilities are calculated with or without taking account of microstructure noise and with or without using overnight and lunch-time returns. ARFIMA, ARFIMAX, HAR, HARX models are employed to specify the dynamics of realized volatility. ARFIMA and HAR models can capture the long-memory property and ARFIMAX and HARX models can also capture the asymmetry in volatility depending on the sign of previous day's return. Option prices are derived under the assumption of risk-neutrality. For comparison, GARCH, EGARCH and FIEGARCH models are estimated using daily returns, where option prices are derived by assuming the risk-neutrality and by using the Duan (1995) method in which the assumption of risk-neutrality is relaxed. Main results using the Nikkei 225 stock index and its put options prices are: (1) ARFIMAX model with daily realized volatility performs best, (2) the Hansen and Lunde (2005a) adjustment without using overnight and lunch-time returns can improve the performance, (3) if the Hansen and Lunde (2005a), which also plays a role to remove the bias caused by the microstructure noise by setting the sample mean of realized volatility equal to the sample variance of daily returns, is used, the other methods for taking account of microstructure noise do not necessarily improve the performance and (4) the Duan (1995) method does not improve the performance compared with assuming the risk neutrality."--1st prelim. p.

Author: Makoto Takahashi
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 981990935X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 120

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Book Description
This treatise delves into the latest advancements in stochastic volatility models, highlighting the utilization of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations for estimating model parameters and forecasting the volatility and quantiles of financial asset returns. The modeling of financial time series volatility constitutes a crucial aspect of finance, as it plays a vital role in predicting return distributions and managing risks. Among the various econometric models available, the stochastic volatility model has been a popular choice, particularly in comparison to other models, such as GARCH models, as it has demonstrated superior performance in previous empirical studies in terms of fit, forecasting volatility, and evaluating tail risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The book also explores an extension of the basic stochastic volatility model, incorporating a skewed return error distribution and a realized volatility measurement equation. The concept of realized volatility, a newly established estimator of volatility using intraday returns data, is introduced, and a comprehensive description of the resulting realized stochastic volatility model is provided. The text contains a thorough explanation of several efficient sampling algorithms for latent log volatilities, as well as an illustration of parameter estimation and volatility prediction through empirical studies utilizing various asset return data, including the yen/US dollar exchange rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nikkei 225 stock index. This publication is highly recommended for readers with an interest in the latest developments in stochastic volatility models and realized stochastic volatility models, particularly in regards to financial risk management.

Author: Artur Sepp
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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Book Description
We consider calibration of log-normal stochastic volatility model and computation of option delta consistently with statistical dynamics of the asset price and its implied volatility surface. We introduce the concept of volatility skew-beta which serves as an empirical adjustment for empirical option delta. We show how to calibrate the model and make it consistent with any dynamics of implied volatility under the statistical measure and reproduce empirical option delta. The calibrated model minimizes realized volatility of delta-hedging P&L-s, especially so for non-vanilla options. We present empirical investigation using implied and realized volatilities of four major stock indices (S&P 500, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and STOXX 50) to validate the assumption about log-normality of both implied and realized volatilities.

Author: Satyanshu K. Upadhyay
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482235129
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 674

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Book Description
Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics. Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on a Bayesian methodology. It gives an overview of the area, presents theoretical insights, and emphasizes applications through motivating examples. This book reflects the diversity of Bayesian analysis, from novel Bayesian methodology, such as nonignorable response and factor analysis, to state-of-the-art applications in economics, astrophysics, biomedicine, oceanography, and other areas. It guides readers in using Bayesian techniques for a range of statistical analyses.

Author: Emanuel Derman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118959183
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 537

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Book Description
The Volatility Smile The Black-Scholes-Merton option model was the greatest innovation of 20th century finance, and remains the most widely applied theory in all of finance. Despite this success, the model is fundamentally at odds with the observed behavior of option markets: a graph of implied volatilities against strike will typically display a curve or skew, which practitioners refer to as the smile, and which the model cannot explain. Option valuation is not a solved problem, and the past forty years have witnessed an abundance of new models that try to reconcile theory with markets. The Volatility Smile presents a unified treatment of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the more advanced models that have replaced it. It is also a book about the principles of financial valuation and how to apply them. Celebrated author and quant Emanuel Derman and Michael B. Miller explain not just the mathematics but the ideas behind the models. By examining the foundations, the implementation, and the pros and cons of various models, and by carefully exploring their derivations and their assumptions, readers will learn not only how to handle the volatility smile but how to evaluate and build their own financial models. Topics covered include: The principles of valuation Static and dynamic replication The Black-Scholes-Merton model Hedging strategies Transaction costs The behavior of the volatility smile Implied distributions Local volatility models Stochastic volatility models Jump-diffusion models The first half of the book, Chapters 1 through 13, can serve as a standalone textbook for a course on option valuation and the Black-Scholes-Merton model, presenting the principles of financial modeling, several derivations of the model, and a detailed discussion of how it is used in practice. The second half focuses on the behavior of the volatility smile, and, in conjunction with the first half, can be used for as the basis for a more advanced course.

Author: Martin Mandler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642574289
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227

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Book Description
This book is a slightly revised version of my doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the Department of Economics and Business Administration of the Justus-Liebig-Universitat Giessen in July 2002. I am indebted to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volbert Alexander for encouraging and supporting my research. I am also grateful to the second member of the doctoral committee, Prof. Dr. Horst Rinne. Special thanks go to Dr. Ralf Ahrens for providing part of the data and to my colleague Carsten Lang, who spent much time reading the complete first draft. Wetzlar, January 2003 Martin Mandler Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I Theoretical Foundations 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities........ .. 7 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model... . . .. . 7 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation ............................................... 11 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices. . . .. 13 2.4 Summary............................................... 15 Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model .................................................. 16 Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy ... 21 3 Survey of the Related Literature .......................... 23 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices. . . .. . 24 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities ............. 25 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density .......................................... 27 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities. . . . . . . .. . . 29 . 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities. . .. 30 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations 43 VIII Contents 3.3 The Skewness Premium ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 45 . . . . . . .

Author: CFA Institute
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119743699
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1335

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Book Description
Portfolio Management in Practice, Volume 1: Investment Management delivers a comprehensive overview of investment management for students and industry professionals. As the first volume in the CFA Institute’s new Portfolio Management in Practice series, Investment Management offers professionals looking to enhance their skillsets and students building foundational knowledge an essential understanding of key investment management concepts. Designed to be an accessible resource for a wide range of learners, this volume explores the full portfolio management process. Inside, readers will find detailed coverage of: Forming capital market expectations Principles of the asset allocation process Determining investment strategies within each asset class Integrating considerations specific to high net worth individuals or institutions into chosen strategies And more To apply the concepts outlined in the Investment Management volume, explore the accompanying Portfolio Management in Practice, Volume 1: Investment Management Workbook. The perfect companion resource, this workbook aligns chapter-by-chapter with Investment Management for easy referencing so readers can draw connections between theoretical content and challenging practice problems. Featuring contributions from the CFA Institute’s subject matter experts, Portfolio Management in Practice, Volume 1: Investment Management distills the knowledge forward-thinking professionals will need to succeed in today’s fast-paced financial world.

Author: Stewart Hodges
Publisher: Manchester University Press
ISBN: 9780719036354
Category : Art
Languages : en
Pages : 344

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Author: Yue Kuen Kwok
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000584259
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 283

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Book Description
Pricing Models of Volatility Products and Exotic Variance Derivatives summarizes most of the recent research results in pricing models of derivatives on discrete realized variance and VIX. The book begins with the presentation of volatility trading and uses of variance derivatives. It then moves on to discuss the robust replication strategy of variance swaps using portfolio of options, which is one of the major milestones in pricing theory of variance derivatives. The replication procedure provides the theoretical foundation of the construction of VIX. This book provides sound arguments for formulating the pricing models of variance derivatives and establishes formal proofs of various technical results. Illustrative numerical examples are included to show accuracy and effectiveness of analytic and approximation methods. Features Useful for practitioners and quants in the financial industry who need to make choices between various pricing models of variance derivatives Fabulous resource for researchers interested in pricing and hedging issues of variance derivatives and VIX products Can be used as a university textbook in a topic course on pricing variance derivatives

Author: Colin Bennett
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781461108757
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 316

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Book Description
This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council