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Author: M Ajoy Kumar Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
In 2002, when the government permitted futures trading on most of the commodities and allowed setting up of national level exchanges, trading in agricultural commodities grew very fast with soy oil, soy bean, mustard seed and chana constituting the major share in 2013. The current study attempts to analyze the price behavior in terms of returns as well as volatility between the spot and futures markets for these four commodities. The study uses a combination of VECM and EGARCH models to analyze the data. The study finds existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures and spot prices, with the futures leading the spot. In the short run, futures returns seem to have a stronger impact on the spot returns in most of the commodities.
Author: M Ajoy Kumar Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
In 2002, when the government permitted futures trading on most of the commodities and allowed setting up of national level exchanges, trading in agricultural commodities grew very fast with soy oil, soy bean, mustard seed and chana constituting the major share in 2013. The current study attempts to analyze the price behavior in terms of returns as well as volatility between the spot and futures markets for these four commodities. The study uses a combination of VECM and EGARCH models to analyze the data. The study finds existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures and spot prices, with the futures leading the spot. In the short run, futures returns seem to have a stronger impact on the spot returns in most of the commodities.
Author: Sanjay Sehgal Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This study examines the process of information transmission in India's agriculture commodity futures market by investigating the price discovery and direction of volatility spillovers between futures and spot prices of nine agricultural commodities viz., Barley, Cardamom, Castor seed, Chana (Chickpea), Chili, Mentha oil, Pepper, Soybean and Refined Soya, traded on Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). The study uses the daily data from January 01, 2009 to May 31, 2013. The empirical results confirm the price discovery between futures and spot prices, indicating strong information transmission. The volatility spillover results indicate that in the short-run, there is strong volatility spillover from spot to futures market whereas in the long-run it is exactly opposite. Further, the study applies the directional spillover method pioneered by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to analyze the direction of informational spillover. The estimated results suggest that the magnitude of volatility based information spillover is low in agri-futures market. With the exception of Soybean and Refined Soya, the spillovers are basically intra-commodity and not inter-commodity. Finally, the study concludes that India's agriculture commodity derivatives market is evolving in the right direction as futures market has started playing pivotal role in the information transmission process.
Author: Velmurugan Palaniappan Shanmugam Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
In well-established and matured agricultural commodity futures market, like U.S., the futures markets are expected to serve as a central exchange for both domestic and international information and thus function as a primary mechanism for price discovery and reduce price variability through hedging activities. After having outlined the present status of U.S. agricultural commodities market, a comprehensive study on the volatility spillover between the spot and futures markets of 12 agricultural commodities is carried out to understand the dynamics of volatility factors which hinder the efficiency of those markets, by comparing two different time periods which stand different by various economical and market conditions, for arriving at relative conclusions. The Granger Causality Test results on the direction of flow of volatility between the spot and futures market shows that in majority of the commodities (6 commodities during 1995-2005 & 7 commodities during 2006-2011) there were unidirectional flow of from futures to spot markets, meaning that futures markets has significantly contributed to the volatility of spot market. There were bidirectional relationship in 5 commodities in 1995-2005 & 3 commodities in 2006-2011. This shows that due to information flow from both sides, spot to future markets and future market to spot market, both were equally responsible for causing volatility. Overall there is no evidence of abnormal volatility in the sub-period 2006-2011, compared to1995-2005. Abnormality of non-directional flow is identified in CBOT wheat during 2005-2011 which means that factors beyond futures market were responsible. Whereas, from the GARCH (1, 1) results, in terms of volatility, there is volatility clustering and persistence throughout the study period, with no abnormality during post 2006 period alone. To be specific, we show that volatility in U.S. agricultural commodities markets were prevalent during 1995-2005 and during 2006-2011, which experienced price spikes and price distortions. Hence, we conclude that huge in-flow of funds into the agricultural commodity futures market since 2006 is not the reason for volatility in US agricultural commodity market.
Author: Gouri Prava Samal Publisher: New India Publishing Agency ISBN: 9390591805 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 4
Book Description
Instability of commodity prices has always been a major concern of the farmers, processors, merchandisers as well as the consumers in an agriculture-dominated economy. Farmers’ direct exposure to price fluctuations makes it too risky for them to invest in other wise profitable activities. There are various ways to cope with this problem. The agriculture commodity market is one of them. It serves a risk-shifting function and can be used to lock-in prices in advance instead of relying on uncertain price developments in future. Apart from being a vehicle for risk transfer among hedgers and from hedgers to speculators, these markets also play a major role in price discovery. The primary objective of this book is to impart the basic knowledge of derivatives market, types of derivative markets, agriculture futures market, regulator of commodity market, commodity exchanges, price discovery in commodity market and awareness among various stakeholders of commodity market.
Author: Isabelle Piot-Lepetit Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1441976345 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 238
Book Description
This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Author: Kushankur Dey Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 9811634327 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 145
Book Description
Futures markets offer numerous advantages in the marketing of agricultural commodities, and in this context, the book examines the major factors and issues that determine the participation of India’s farmers in the futures markets. These include the efficiency of the futures markets in price discovery, the convergence of spot and futures prices, the dissemination of spot price information, and the socio-economic and exchange-related issues affecting farmer participation. It also examines the factors affecting the demand and supply of participation, and the access to futures trading services. The purpose is to identify different factors that can enhance or constrain farmer participation in the futures markets, which may include market characteristics, institutional features, socio-economic issues, and behavioural aspects of farmer participation. A number of organizations related to rural development, as well as farmer producer companies have sought to facilitate farmer participation in the forward/futures market through offering aggregation and other trading services, and the book also examines these efforts towards the exchange-traded derivative markets and the direct and indirect benefits that accrue. The book also studies the efficiency of futures markets in price discovery and price dissemination applying co-integration tests, and error correction and volatility models, using available data of wheat, rapeseed-mustard, cotton, guar seed, castor, cumin and coriander futures contracts traded in the largest agricultural commodity exchanges in India. Besides, case studies are used to examine and understand the institutional roles of aggregators in aggregation efforts towards the forward/futures market. This book covers several states and locations in India to enhance the representation and validity of the findings. It also examines representative farmer organizations which have obtained institutional membership in the forward or futures markets, and identifies areas of further research. In the current scenario, the book would be of immense importance and relevance to governments, commodity exchanges/markets, aggregators, many private and development organizations, as well as interested researchers and students.
Author: Maude Whitaker Publisher: ISBN: 9787059513712 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Exploring Price Dynamics in Indian Commodity Markets Understanding Long-Term and Short-Term Relationships In this preface, we introduce our present research work, which delves into the examination of the relationship, both long-term and short-term, as well as the dynamics of price discovery and volatility spillover between the spot and futures commodity markets in India. Furthermore, this thesis aims to detect variations in primary outcomes during distinct crisis periods, namely the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). Data and Objectives Our study leverages daily closing price data for 12 commodities spanning various sectors, covering the period from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017. The overarching objectives of this investigation encompass the examination of cointegration, the elucidation of the price discovery function, and the analysis of the volatility spillover effect between the Indian spot and futures commodity markets. To ensure a nuanced understanding and time-dependent results, we partitioned the data into four distinct sub-periods: the GFC period from January 1, 2007, to November 12, 2008; the post-GFC period from November 13, 2008, to April 11, 2011; the ESDC period from April 12, 2011, to August 31, 2015; and finally, the post-ESDC period spanning from September 1, 2015, to December 31, 2017. Methodology To achieve these objectives, we employ a range of econometric tools selected based on previous scholarly literature. These tools encompass the Unit Root test, including the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests, Johansen's Cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Autoregression (VAR), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Granger Causality test, and the **Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH) model. Key Findings Our findings reveal that, in the long-term, all commodities exhibit cointegration with their respective spot and futures markets, with the exception of natural gas and soybean during the post-GFC period, gold, aluminium, and lead during the ESDC period, and Jeera during the post-ESDC period. This suggests that these exceptions signify efficiency between their spot and futures markets. In the short-term, all commodities demonstrate cointegration with their spot and futures markets, except Jeera during the GFC and post-GFC periods.
Author: Mohammad Irshad VK Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 8
Book Description
On agricultural commodity futures, there is always been a doubt, expressed by different bodies and experts on the usefulness and suitability of futures contract in developing in the underlying agricultural commodity market, especially in an agricultural based economy like India. Here an attempt is made to revalidate the impact of futures trading on the agricultural commodity market. The daily price information in spot and futures market for a period of seven years ranging from 2007 to 2014 for five major agricultural commodities are estimated using VAR (Vector Auto Regression) and GARCH (1,1) to test the dynamic interrelationship among the variables. The empirical findings significantly show that comparative advantage of the futures market in disseminating information, leading to a significant price discovery and risk management, that can help to successfully develop the underlying commodity market in India.
Author: Matthias Kalkuhl Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319282018 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 620
Book Description
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Author: M Ajoy Kumar
Author: M Ajoy Kumar
Author: Sanjay Sehgal
Author: Velmurugan Palaniappan Shanmugam
Author: Gouri Prava Samal
Author: Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Author: Kushankur Dey
Author: Maude Whitaker
Author: Mohammad Irshad VK
Author: G. R. Sayee Prasanna
Author: Matthias Kalkuhl