Predictive Methods for Football and Betting Markets PDF Download

Author: Enrique Dóal Pérez Frías
Publisher: Enrique Dóal Pérez Frías
ISBN:
Category : Games & Activities
Languages : en
Pages : 349

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Book Description
What variables are relevant to predict the future results of a football team? Are there any inefficiencies in the betting markets that can be exploited? How many games are necessary to correctly measure the level of a team or a footballer? Is it better to bet on a team that is on a winning streak or is it better to bet on a team that is on a losing streak? What is the probability that a team that has just been promoted will be relegated in the next few seasons? What is the optimal size and composition of a team squad? How are the best and worst clubs different? What are the best bookmakers? In this book the reader will find the answer to these and many other questions about the beautiful game, thanks to data mining techniques applied to a historical database of more than 200,000 football matches and a statistical approach explained in an easily accesible style.

Author: Enrique Dóal Perez Frias
Publisher: Independently Published
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
What variables are relevant to predict the future results of a football team? Are there any inefficiencies in the betting markets that can be exploited? How many games are necessary to correctly measure the level of a team or a footballer? Is it better to bet on a team that is on a winning streak or is it better to bet on a team that is on a losing streak? What is the probability that a team that has just been promoted will be relegated in the next few seasons? What is the optimal size and composition of a team squad? How are the best and worst clubs different? What are the best bookmakers? In this book the reader will find the answer to these and many other questions about the beautiful game, thanks to data mining techniques applied to a historical database of more than 200,000 football matches and a statistical approach explained in an easily accesible style.

Author: David Schlichtig
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
Sports gambling is a rapidly expanding industry throughout the United States, providing many individuals with the opportunity to achieve profits through several platforms and applications -- much like the financial markets. While these markets are structured differently at their core, many qualitative similarities exist that suggest that profitable investment can be accomplished through either market. Investors typically analyze a number of accounting and financial metrics to assess which financial assets should be added to their portfolios; with an abundance of information easily accessible to the public, a similar analytical approach -- using performance statistics and predictive modeling -- can be used in the sports betting market to determine on which outcomes to wager. This thesis explores the feasibility of predictive modeling strategies in the sports betting market of being an alternative to traditional investment strategies. Building on techniques explored in previous literature, a probit regression model using extensive, historical NFL data is developed and refined, and its returns are compared to those observed in the financial markets during the 2022 NFL season. The results of this study suggest that exploitable arbitrage opportunities exist that allow individuals to achieve returns at a rate greater than the financial markets, providing promising evidence than sports betting can be an alternative financial asset class.

Author: Martin Spann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This article compares the forecast accuracy of different methods, namely prediction markets, tipsters and betting odds, and assesses the ability of prediction markets and tipsters to generate profits systematically in a betting market. We present the results of an empirical study that uses data from 678-837 games of three seasons of the German premier soccer league. Prediction markets and betting odds perform equally well in terms of forecasting accuracy, but both methods strongly outperform tipsters. A weighting-based combination of the forecasts of these methods leads to a slightly higher forecast accuracy, whereas a rule-based combination improves forecast accuracy substantially. However, none of the forecasts leads to systematic monetary gains in betting markets because of the high fees (25%) charged by the state-owned bookmaker in Germany. Lower fees (e.g., approximately 12% or 0%) would provide systematic profits if punters exploited the information from prediction markets and bet only on a selected number of games.

Author: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139445405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 412

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Book Description
The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.

Author: David Peel
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 131798823X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 130

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Book Description
During the last few decades, commercial gambling has increased substantially throughout the Western world. More people than ever before have access to sources of legalised gambling, leading to bumper revenues for the institutions involved. Naturally enough, this has led to an increased interest in the area of the economics of betting. This book addresses the issues raised by the continued growth of the gambling sector. How can we model the behaviour of people who seemingly act irrationally? What are the implications of different tax policies with regard to gambling? Are casinos capable of taking money away from state-run lotteries and the causes they fund? Can bookmakers’ odds be influenced in such a way as to make the gambling market inefficient? The authors in this volume provide insights based on data from many different countries, including England, the USA, Australia, Spain and Cyprus. This volume brings together work which addresses the economic impact of the huge growth of commercial gambling in the Western world, as well as trying to model the cognitive processes which can explain why individuals are prepared to behave in such apparently irrational ways. This book was published as a special issue of Applied Economics. The academic editor of this journal is Mark P. Taylor.

Author: Plácido Rodríguez
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1785364553
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
This unique book delves into a number of intriguing issues and addresses several pertinent questions including, should gambling markets be privatized? Is the ‘hot hand’ hypothesis real or a myth? Are the ‘many’ smarter than the ‘few’ in estimating betting odds? How are prices set in fixed odds betting markets? The book also explores the informational efficiency of betting markets and the prevalence of corruption and illegal betting in sports.

Author: James Tippett
Publisher: Self-Publisher
ISBN: 9781527211940
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 268

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Book Description
The Football Code outlines an innovative, ground-breaking philosophy that will change the way you watch the beautiful game. In a sport which is so largely dictated by randomness, how can we accurately assess the performance of teams, players and managers? How can we tell who is good and who is simply lucky? The Football Code teaches how a more scientific approach can eradicate the damaging effects of chance, leaving a clearer image of what is actually happening on the field of play. Only then can managers sign better players. Only then can pundits offer better judgements. Only then can fans compile better fantasy football teams. This book addresses the intrinsic errors and inefficiencies which plague the sport, whilst at the same time revealing the top secret methods that professional gambling syndicates use to predict future outcomes. Above all, it discloses the top secret, data-driven system that one football mastermind has used to make millions in the betting markets, and that has allowed the Championship team he owns to punch spectacularly above its financial weight. Football has finally found it's answer to baseball's 'Moneyball'. "Any fan who doesn't read this book will be left behind." - William Lund. "Unveils a revolutionary approach to the transfer market. Truly exceptional." - FootballNow. "A masterclass. The sport of football will never be the same again" - Levi Janssen.

Author: Roger Lee
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540791868
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 291

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Book Description
The 7th IEEE/ACIS Conference and the 2nd IEEE/ACIS Workshop on e-Activity (IWEA 2008) featured researchers from around the world. The conference organizers selected 23 outstanding papers for this volume of Springer’s Studies in Computational Intelligence.

Author: Martin Chamberlain
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781097263981
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 98

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Book Description
Inspired by the fact that only 5% of football punters make a profit over the long term ,a group of data scientists created the Football Data Labs project with the aim of developing profitable, data-driven and easily applicable betting strategies for novice and experienced punters alike. The first publication of the Data-Driven Football Predictions series will cover a betting methodology for the over 2.5 goals market, as applied to the English Premier League. The book will serve three purposes. Firstly, it will present a data-driven league-specific, profitable and back-tested betting strategy with detailed illustrations and examples. Secondly, by presenting each step of the betting methodology, the book will actually serve as a guide on constructing any sports betting strategy. Lastly, the book will introduce the novice bettors with some of the most relevant factors to consider when placing an over 2.5 goals bet. By reviewing data patterns as applied to the English Premier League, the book will expose the power of league-specific data patterns. This book will help transform the typical fun-loving recreational punter into a wealthier and data-wise smarter ... fun-loving punter. After all, the major inspiration for this book, and for the Football Data Labs project as a whole, is to educate bettors about profitable data patterns that would give them an edge against the bookmakers.