Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting PDF Download

Author: James H. Stock
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226774740
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 350

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Book Description
The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Author: Reuben A. Kessel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132

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Book Description

Author: Brian Beaulieu
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118809890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 247

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Book Description
A guide for protecting your wealth in an age of turbulent business cycles In Prosperity in the Age of Decline, Brian and Alan Beaulieu—the CEO and President of the Institute for Trend Research® (ITR)—offer an informed, meticulously-researched look at the future and the coming Great Depression. Drawing on ITR's 94.7% forecast accuracy rate, the book outlines specific, actionable strategies for capitalizing on cyclical opportunities and dodging economic danger. In this important resource, the authors reveal what it will take for individual investors and business leaders to prosper as the economy heats up prior to the predicted downturn, preserve wealth in the upcoming Great Depression, and profit on the way out of the depression. The imbalances and maladjustments have a while to play out and the authors pinpoint the investment opportunities to be had in the countdown period. The Beaulieu's examine the major economic trends at play, such as low interest rates, burgeoning government debt, and an aging population. They discuss which trends will last and what investors should do with this knowledge in order to thrive. The book also reviews the group of leading economic indicators that most consistently achieve reliable results for predicting where the economy is headed. Designed as a useful tool for investors, the book includes a working list of key trends, describes the upside potential of each trend, and explains the potential threat stemming from a particular trend. Understanding how to capitalize on these trends and knowing how to avoid the common pitfalls are the keys to creating a solid economic future for individual investors and business leaders. Contains the strategies for capitalizing on cyclical opportunities and avoiding economic dangers Offers an examination of major economic trends Includes information on the leading economic indicators that most reliably achieve results Shows how to preserve wealth and avoid the most common investing pitfalls This comprehensive resource offers guidelines for averting cyclical downturns and building on rising industry trends.

Author: Zidong An
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513510657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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Book Description
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.

Author: Dean Baker
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN: 1609944771
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 185

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Book Description
Dean Baker, codirector of the Center for Economic and Policy Research recounts the strategies used by the country’s top economic policymakers to conceal their failure to recognize the housing bubble or take steps to rein it in before it grew to unprecedented levels, resulting in the loss of millions of jobs, homes, and the life savings of tens of millions of people. He quashes dire warnings of looming rampant inflation and spiraling debt with solid historic evidence to the contrary—evidence that supports more stimulus, not less. With a dose of optimism, Baker outlines a thoughtful progressive program for rebuilding the economy and reshaping the financial system, including new financial transaction taxes that will reduce or eliminate economic waste while providing stimulus and incentives where and when they are most needed.

Author: Jenny Chase
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1786347415
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 206

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Book Description
Solar power has become big business, with $131 billion invested in 2018, up from just $11.2 billion in 2004 but down from $171 billion in 2017 as unit costs fell. New installed capacity grew from 1.1GW in 2004 to about 107GW in 2018, a steady rise as solar begins to compete with fossil fuels on cost and to be built in nearly every country.This is a book for the solar workers of the future, a business book for those without a business or economics background and those simply curious about major shifts happening in the world energy economy. Key financial, economic and technical concepts are interspersed with the history of the first decade of cheap solar power, and the author's experience of being part of a successful startup in the clean energy sector.

Author: Peter D. Schiff
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118281683
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 386

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Book Description
A fully updated follow-up to Peter Schiff's bestselling financial survival guide-Crash Proof, which described the economy as a house of cards on the verge of collapse, with over 80 pages of new material The economic and monetary disaster which seasoned prognosticator Peter Schiff predicted is no longer hypothetical-it is here today. And nobody understands what to do in this situation better than the man who saw it coming. For more than a decade, Schiff has not only observed the economy, but also helped his clients restructure their portfolios to reflect his outlook. What he sees today is a nation facing an economic storm brought on by growing federal, personal, and corporate debt; too little savings; and a declining dollar. Crash Proof 2.0 picks up right where the first edition-a bestselling book that predicted the current market mayhem-left off. This timely guide takes into account the dramatic economic shifts that are reshaping the world and provides you with the insights and information to navigate the dangerous terrain. Throughout the book, Schiff explains the factors that will affect your future financial stability and offers a specific three step plan to battle the current economic downturn. Discusses the measures you can take to protect yourself-as well as profit-during these difficult times Offers an insightful examination of the structural weaknesses underlying the economic meltdown Outlines a plan that will allow you to preserve wealth and protect the purchasing power of your savings Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Crash Proof 2.0 will help you survive and thrive during the coming years of economic uncertainty.

Author: C. James Hueng
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN: 0880996765
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 133

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Book Description
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.

Author: Bandi Kamaiah
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811058105
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227

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Book Description
This book discusses wide topics related to current issues in economic growth and development, international trade, macroeconomic and financial stability, inflation, monetary policy, banking, productivity, agriculture and food security. It is a collection of seventeen research papers selected based on their quality in terms of contemporary topic, newness in the methodology, and themes. All selected papers have followed an empirical approach to address research issues, and are segregated in five parts. Part one covers papers related to fiscal and price stability, monetary policy and economic growth. The second part contains works related to financial integration, capital market volatility and macroeconomic stability. Third part deals with issues related to international trade and economic growth. Part four covers topics related to productivity and firm performance. The final part discusses issues related to agriculture and food security. The book would be of interest to researchers, academicians as a ready reference on current issues in economics and finance.

Author: Edward Yardeni
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781948025003
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
I started my career on Wall Street in 1978. For the past 40 years on the Street, I have been thinking and writing about the economy and financial markets as both an economist and an investment strategist. While I have a solid academic background to be a Wall Street prognosticator, I learned a great deal on the job. In this book, I share my professional insights into predicting the economy and financial markets.