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Author: Sergei Soldatenko Publisher: ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Climate system consisting of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land and biota is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system along with its essential physical properties. Since climate system is a nonlinear dissipative dynamical system that possesses a global attractor and its dynamics on the attractor are chaotic, the prediction of weather and climate change has a finite time horizon. There are two kinds of predictability of climate system: one is generated by uncertainties in the initial conditions (predictability of the first kind) and another is produced by uncertainties in parameters that describe the external forcing (predictability of the second kind). Using the concept of the 'perfect' climate model, two kinds of predictability are considered from the standpoint of the mathematical theory of climate.
Author: Sergei Soldatenko Publisher: ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Climate system consisting of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land and biota is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system along with its essential physical properties. Since climate system is a nonlinear dissipative dynamical system that possesses a global attractor and its dynamics on the attractor are chaotic, the prediction of weather and climate change has a finite time horizon. There are two kinds of predictability of climate system: one is generated by uncertainties in the initial conditions (predictability of the first kind) and another is produced by uncertainties in parameters that describe the external forcing (predictability of the second kind). Using the concept of the 'perfect' climate model, two kinds of predictability are considered from the standpoint of the mathematical theory of climate.
Author: Mahmut Reyhanoglu Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand ISBN: 9535130153 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 276
Book Description
There has been a considerable progress made during the recent past on mathematical techniques for studying dynamical systems that arise in science and engineering. This progress has been, to a large extent, due to our increasing ability to mathematically model physical processes and to analyze and solve them, both analytically and numerically. With its eleven chapters, this book brings together important contributions from renowned international researchers to provide an excellent survey of recent advances in dynamical systems theory and applications. The first section consists of seven chapters that focus on analytical techniques, while the next section is composed of four chapters that center on computational techniques.
Author: Tim Palmer Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9781107414853 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.
Author: D.M. Burridge Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642821324 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 280
Book Description
Forecasting the weather for the long and medium range is a difficult and scientifically challenging problem. Since the first operational weather prediction by numerical methods was carried out (on the BESK computer in Stockholm, Sweden, 1954) . there has been an ever accelerating development in computer technology. Hand in hand has followed a tremendous increase in the complexity of the atmospheric models used for weather prediction. The ability of these models to predict future states of the atmosphere has also increased rapidly, both due to model development and due to more accurate and plentiful observations of the atmosphere to define the initial . state for model integrations. It may however be argued on theoretical grounds that even if we have an almost perfect model with almost perfect initial data, we will never be able to make an accurate weather prediction more than a few weeks ahead. This is due to the inherent instability of the atmosphere and work in this field was pioneered by E. Lorenz. It is generally referred to as atmospheric predict ability and in the opening chapter of this book Professor Lorenz gives us an overview of the problem of atmospheric predictability. The contributions to this book were originally presented at the 1981 ECMWF Seminar (ECMWF - European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) which was held at ECMWF in Reading, England, in September 1981.
Author: Pallav Ray Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand ISBN: 9535111329 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 260
Book Description
Understanding climate change requires analysis of its effects in specific contexts, and the case studies in this volume offer examples of such issues. Its chapters cover tropical cyclones in East Asia, study of a fossil in Brazils Araripe Basin and the fractal nature of band-thickness in an iron formation of Canadas Northwest Territories. One chapter examines the presence of trace elements and palynomorphs in the sediments of a tropical urban pond. Examples of technologies used include RS- GIS to map lineaments for groundwater targeting and sustainable water-resource management, the ALADIN numerical weather-prediction model used to forecast weather and use of grids in numerical weather and climate models. Finally, one chapter models sea level rises resulting from ice sheets melting.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309180538 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 124
Book Description
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author: Christian L. E. Franzke Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1316883213 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 612
Book Description
It is now widely recognized that the climate system is governed by nonlinear, multi-scale processes, whereby memory effects and stochastic forcing by fast processes, such as weather and convective systems, can induce regime behavior. Motivated by present difficulties in understanding the climate system and to aid the improvement of numerical weather and climate models, this book gathers contributions from mathematics, physics and climate science to highlight the latest developments and current research questions in nonlinear and stochastic climate dynamics. Leading researchers discuss some of the most challenging and exciting areas of research in the mathematical geosciences, such as the theory of tipping points and of extreme events including spatial extremes, climate networks, data assimilation and dynamical systems. This book provides graduate students and researchers with a broad overview of the physical climate system and introduces powerful data analysis and modeling methods for climate scientists and applied mathematicians.
Author: J. Shukla Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642769608 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 344
Book Description
It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction.
Author: J. Grasman Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9401109621 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 662
Book Description
Researchers in the natural sciences are faced with problems that require a novel approach to improve the quality of forecasts of processes that are sensitive to environmental conditions. Nonlinearity of a system may significantly complicate the predictability of future states: a small variation of parameters can dramatically change the dynamics, while sensitive dependence of the initial state may severely limit the predictability horizon. Uncertainties also play a role. This volume addresses such problems by using tools from chaos theory and systems theory, adapted for the analysis of problems in the environmental sciences. Sensitive dependence on the initial state (chaos) and the parameters are analyzed using methods such as Lyapunov exponents and Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in the structure and the values of parameters of a model is studied in relation to processes that depend on the environmental conditions. These methods also apply to biology and economics. For research workers at universities and (semi)governmental institutes for the environment, agriculture, ecology, meteorology and water management, and theoretical economists.
Author: Sergei Soldatenko
Author: Sergei Soldatenko
Author: Mahmut Reyhanoglu
Author: Tim Palmer
Author: D.M. Burridge
Author: Pallav Ray
Author: National Research Council
Author: Christian L. E. Franzke
Author: J. Shukla
Author: J. Grasman
Author: Lewis Fry Richardson