Author: Karthik Balakrishnan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 64
Book Description
We document a failure of the market to price the implications of a current loss (profit) for a future loss (profit). In a 120-day window following the quarterly earnings announcement date, a portfolio of firms with extreme losses (profits) exhibits a -6.58 percent (3.55 percent) abnormal return. These patterns in stock returns translate into an annualized return of approximately 21 percent on a hedge portfolio that takes a long position in an extreme profit firm quintile and a short position in an extreme loss firm quintile. The results also demonstrate that this loss/profit anomaly is incremental to, and more pronounced than previously documented accounting-related anomalies. In an effort to explain this finding, we show that this mispricing is related to differences between conditional and unconditional probabilities of losses/profits, as if stock prices do not fully reflect conditional probabilities in a timely fashion. A battery of sensitivity tests shows that this loss/profit anomaly is robust to alternative risk adjustments, distress risk, short sales constraints, transaction costs, and sample periods.
Author: Tomas Tomcany Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing ISBN: 9783843367813 Category : Languages : en Pages : 92
Book Description
It is a well documented finding in finance theory that share prices drift in the direction of firms' unexpected earnings changes, a phenomenom known as post-earnings announcement drift, or earnings momentum. In this book, I study the stock prices' reaction to firms' quarterly earnings announcements. The book shows that the timeframe in which the drift occurs is related to the size of a firm and is limited in time after the earnings announcement. I further analyze the effect of the number of analysts covering a firm on the magnitude and persistance of post-earnings announcement drift. I document that recent analyst coverage predicts large drifts after the earnings announcements. I suggest several possible explanations, but the evidence seems most consistent with recent analyst coverage providing information about investor (or analyst) expectations regarding firm's future earnings. This book should be useful to professionals in Financial Economics, especially to those interested in Behavioral Finance in stock markets, but also to equity analysts, traders or investors interested in the stocks' response to earnings news.
Author: Dongcheol Kim Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 16
Book Description
To explain post-earnings announcement drift, we construct a risk factor related to unexpected earnings surprise, and propose a four-factor model by adding this risk factor to Fama and French's (1993), (1995) three-factor model. This earnings surprise risk factor provides a remarkable improvement in explaining post-earnings announcement drift when included in addition to the three factors of Fama and French. After adjusting raw returns for the four risk factors, the cumulative abnormal returns over the 60 trading days subsequent to quarterly earnings announcements are economically and statistically insignificant. Furthermore, except for the first two days after the earnings announcement, the cumulative abnormal returns and the arbitrage returns from our four-factor model are relatively stable over the testing period and never significant on any day of the testing period. On the other hand, the arbitrage returns from the other models increase over the 60-day testing period. We argue that most of the post-earnings announcement drift observed in prior studies may be a result of using misspecified models and failing to appropriately adjust raw returns for risk.
Author: Robert H. Battalio Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
The persistence of the post-earnings announcement drift leads many to believe that trading barriers prevent knowledgeable investors from eliminating it. For example, Bhushan (1994) contends that sophisticated investors quickly drive prices to within trading costs of efficient values. We examine two factors not previously addressed in the literature: the exact timing of the announcements and liquidity costs. Specifically, we compare the profits generated by transacting immediately following the announcement and at the close of the actual announcement day to the common practices of assuming trades at the close on the Compustat date or the following day. We further investigate the impact of liquidity costs on the drift by examining actual quotes available to investors. Under a wide range of timing and cost assumptions our results leave little doubt that between 1993 and 2002 an investor could have earned hedged-portfolio returns of at least 14% per year after trading costs.
Author: Karthik Balakrishnan
Author: Tomas Tomcany
Author: David Craig Nichols
Author: Myung Chul Chung
Author: Josef Fink
Author: Dongcheol Kim
Author: Vitaly Meursault
Author: Amir Guttman
Author: Jeroen Suijs
Author: Robert H. Battalio