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Author: Enrico Zio Publisher: FonCSI ISBN: Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
The authors propose a method for assessing the performance of a maintenance policy whilst accounting for uncertainty in various parameters of the degradation model. The method is appropriate for the representation and propagation of epistemic uncertainty which is elicited from an expert, who can provide a family of confidence intervals for each uncertain parameter. Information elicited from the expert is described using possibility distributions and propagated through the degradation model using fuzzy random variables and the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence. In classical approaches to uncertainty propagation based on probability theory, probability distributions are used to represent information obtained from experts. However, expert judgment is often expressed using imprecise linguistic statements, and the imposition of specific probability distributions over-constrains this uncertain information in a arbitrary and unjustified manner. Possibility theory allows the epistemic uncertainty arising from expert opinion to be represented in an arguably more rigorous manner, without introducing additional bias. A practical case study concerning the maintenance of a check valve of a turbo-pump lubricating system in a nuclear power plant illustrates the method. A rupture failure model caused by fatigue is modeled, and a Condition-Based Maintenance policy is applied to the component over a fixed time horizon. The performance of the maintenance policy is assessed in terms of cost and component unavailability.
Author: Enrico Zio Publisher: FonCSI ISBN: Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
The authors propose a method for assessing the performance of a maintenance policy whilst accounting for uncertainty in various parameters of the degradation model. The method is appropriate for the representation and propagation of epistemic uncertainty which is elicited from an expert, who can provide a family of confidence intervals for each uncertain parameter. Information elicited from the expert is described using possibility distributions and propagated through the degradation model using fuzzy random variables and the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence. In classical approaches to uncertainty propagation based on probability theory, probability distributions are used to represent information obtained from experts. However, expert judgment is often expressed using imprecise linguistic statements, and the imposition of specific probability distributions over-constrains this uncertain information in a arbitrary and unjustified manner. Possibility theory allows the epistemic uncertainty arising from expert opinion to be represented in an arguably more rigorous manner, without introducing additional bias. A practical case study concerning the maintenance of a check valve of a turbo-pump lubricating system in a nuclear power plant illustrates the method. A rupture failure model caused by fatigue is modeled, and a Condition-Based Maintenance policy is applied to the component over a fixed time horizon. The performance of the maintenance policy is assessed in terms of cost and component unavailability.
Author: Enrico Zio Publisher: FonCSI ISBN: Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Author: Terje Aven Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118763068 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 152
Book Description
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Author: Lluis Godo Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540273263 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 1043
Book Description
These are the proceedings of the 8th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2005, held in Barcelona (Spain), July 6–8, 2005. The ECSQARU conferences are biennial and have become a major forum for advances in the theory and practice of r- soning under uncertainty. The ?rst ECSQARU conference was held in Marseille (1991), and after in Granada (1993), Fribourg (1995), Bonn (1997), London (1999), Toulouse (2001) and Aalborg (2003). The papers gathered in this volume were selected out of 130 submissions, after a strict review process by the members of the Program Committee, to be presented at ECSQARU 2005. In addition, the conference included invited lectures by three outstanding researchers in the area, Seraf ́ ?n Moral (Imprecise Probabilities), Rudolf Kruse (Graphical Models in Planning) and J ́ erˆ ome Lang (Social Choice). Moreover, the application of uncertainty models to real-world problems was addressed at ECSQARU 2005 by a special session devoted to s- cessful industrial applications, organized by Rudolf Kruse. Both invited lectures and papers of the special session contribute to this volume. On the whole, the programme of the conference provided a broad, rich and up-to-date perspective of the current high-level research in the area which is re?ected in the contents of this volume. IwouldliketowarmlythankthemembersoftheProgramCommitteeandthe additional referees for their valuable work, the invited speakers and the invited session organizer.
Author: Weiru Liu Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642221513 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 775
Book Description
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 11th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2011, held in Belfast, UK, in June/July 2011. The 60 revised full papers presented together with 3 invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from 108 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on argumentation; Bayesian networks and causal networks; belief functions; belief revision and inconsistency handling; classification and clustering; default reasoning and logics for reasoning under uncertainty; foundations of reasoning and decision making under uncertainty; fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic; implementation and applications of uncertain systems; possibility theory and possibilistic logic; and uncertainty in databases.
Author: Isaac Elishakoff Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG ISBN: 3111354237 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 384
Book Description
The book exposes three alternative and competing approaches to uncertainty analysis in engineering. It is composed of some essays on various sub-topics like random vibrations, probabilistic reliability, fuzzy-sets-based analysis, unknown-but-bounded variables, stochastic linearization, possible difficulties with stochastic analysis of structures.
Author: Sebastian Martorell Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1482266482 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 3512
Book Description
Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis. Theory, Methods and Applications contains the papers presented at the joint ESREL (European Safety and Reliability) and SRA-Europe (Society for Risk Analysis Europe) Conference (Valencia, Spain, 22-25 September 2008). The book covers a wide range of topics, including: Accident and Incident Investigation; Crisi
Author: Kofi Kissi Dompere Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3642311229 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 191
Book Description
The monograph is an examination of the fuzzy rational foundations of the structure of exact and inexact sciences over the epistemological space which is distinguished from the ontological space. It is thus concerned with the demarcation problem. It examines exact science and its critique of inexact science. The role of fuzzy rationality in these examinations is presented. The driving force of the discussions is the nature of the information that connects the cognitive relational structure of the epistemological space to the ontological space for knowing. The knowing action is undertaken by decision-choice agents who must process information to derive exact-inexact or true-false conclusions. The information processing is done with a paradigm and laws of thought that constitute the input-output machine. The nature of the paradigm selected depends on the nature of the information structure that is taken as input of the thought processing. Generally, the information structure received from the ontological space is defective from the simple principles of acquaintances and the limitations of cognitive agents operating in the epistemological space. How then do we arrive and claim exactness in our knowledge-production system? The general conclusion of this book is that the conditions of the fuzzy paradigm with its laws of thought and mathematics present a methodological unity of exact and inexact sciences where every zone of thought has fuzzy covering.
Author: Terje Aven Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118489586 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Author: Susmita Sarkar Publisher: Springer ISBN: 8132225473 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 335
Book Description
The book is based on research presentations at the international conference, “Emerging Trends in Applied Mathematics: In the Memory of Sir Asutosh Mookerjee, S.N. Bose, M.N. Saha and N.R. Sen”, held at the Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, during 12–14 February 2014. It focuses on various emerging and challenging topics in the field of applied mathematics and theoretical physics. The book will be a valuable resource for postgraduate students at higher levels and researchers in applied mathematics and theoretical physics. Researchers presented a wide variety of themes in applied mathematics and theoretical physics—such as emergent periodicity in a field of chaos; Ricci flow equation and Poincare conjecture; Bose–Einstein condensation; geometry of local scale invariance and turbulence; statistical mechanics of human resource allocation: mathematical modelling of job-matching in labour markets; contact problem in elasticity; the Saha equation; computational fluid dynamics with applications in aerospace problems; an introduction to data assimilation, stochastic analysis and bounds on noise for Holling type-II model, graph theoretical invariants of chemical and biological systems; strongly correlated phases and quantum phase transitions of ultra cold bosons; and the mathematical modelling of breast cancer treatment.
Author: Enrico Zio
Author: Enrico Zio
Author: Enrico Zio
Author: Terje Aven
Author: Lluis Godo
Author: Weiru Liu
Author: Isaac Elishakoff
Author: Sebastian Martorell
Author: Kofi Kissi Dompere
Author: Terje Aven
Author: Susmita Sarkar