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Author: Robert S. Erikson Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226922162 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 221
Book Description
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author: Robert S. Erikson Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226922162 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 221
Book Description
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author: John Fund Publisher: Encounter Books ISBN: 1641772093 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 197
Book Description
Behind the deeply contentious 2020 election stands a real story of a broken election process. Election fraud that alters election outcomes and dilutes legitimate votes occurs all too often, as is the bungling of election bureaucrats. Our election process is full of vulnerabilities that can be — and are — taken advantage of, raising questions about, and damaging public confidence in, the legitimacy of the outcome of elections. This book explores the reality of the fraud and bureaucratic errors and mistakes that should concern all Americans and offers recommendations and solutions to fix those problems.
Author: Nic Cheeseman Publisher: Yale University Press ISBN: 0300280831 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 343
Book Description
An engrossing analysis of the pseudo-democratic methods employed by despots around the world to retain control Contrary to what is commonly believed, authoritarian leaders who agree to hold elections are generally able to remain in power longer than autocrats who refuse to allow the populace to vote. In this engaging and provocative book, Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas expose the limitations of national elections as a means of promoting democratization, and reveal the six essential strategies that dictators use to undermine the electoral process in order to guarantee victory for themselves. Based on their firsthand experiences as election watchers and their hundreds of interviews with presidents, prime ministers, diplomats, election officials, and conspirators, Cheeseman and Klaas document instances of election rigging from Argentina to Zimbabwe, including notable examples from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Russia, and the United States—touching on the 2016 election. This eye-opening study offers a sobering overview of corrupted professional politics, while providing fertile intellectual ground for the development of new solutions for protecting democracy from authoritarian subversion.
Author: John Fund Publisher: Encounter Books ISBN: 159403270X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 251
Book Description
John Fund explores the real divide the country faces with the looming election. Through wary thoughts on voting integrity, he shows how eletions can be decided by the votes of dead people, illegal felon voters, and absentee voters that simply don't exist. If nothing is done to address the growing cynicism about vote counting, rest assured that another close presidential election that descends into bitter partisan wrangling is just around the corner.
Author: Jeffrey M. Stonecash Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers ISBN: 1461722357 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 189
Book Description
Information is crucial for candidates in political campaigns. This book, written by someone who has polled for 23 years, first focuses on the process of acquiring information during a campaign through polling. The book describes how to write questions, draw samples of voters, and conduct calling. The second major concern of the book is how to analyze results, and then interpret and present results in a way that will contribute to forming a strategy for a campaign. The book deals with the issues of biased questions and results, and why it is of no value to candidates to engage in such practices.
Author: Jonathan K. Hodge Publisher: American Mathematical Soc. ISBN: 1470442876 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 255
Book Description
The Mathematics of Voting and Elections: A Hands-On Approach, Second Edition, is an inquiry-based approach to the mathematics of politics and social choice. The aim of the book is to give readers who might not normally choose to engage with mathematics recreationally the chance to discover some interesting mathematical ideas from within a familiar context, and to see the applicability of mathematics to real-world situations. Through this process, readers should improve their critical thinking and problem solving skills, as well as broaden their views of what mathematics really is and how it can be used in unexpected ways. The book was written specifically for non-mathematical audiences and requires virtually no mathematical prerequisites beyond basic arithmetic. At the same time, the questions included are designed to challenge both mathematical and non-mathematical audiences alike. More than giving the right answers, this book asks the right questions. The book is fun to read, with examples that are not just thought-provoking, but also entertaining. It is written in a style that is casual without being condescending. But the discovery-based approach of the book also forces readers to play an active role in their learning, which should lead to a sense of ownership of the main ideas in the book. And while the book provides answers to some of the important questions in the field of mathematical voting theory, it also leads readers to discover new questions and ways to approach them. In addition to making small improvements in all the chapters, this second edition contains several new chapters. Of particular interest might be Chapter 12 which covers a host of topics related to gerrymandering.
Author: Mark Pack Publisher: Reaktion Books ISBN: 1789145686 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 353
Book Description
From a political-polling expert, an eye-opening—and hilarious—look at the origins of polls and how they have been used and abused ever since. Opinion polls dominate media coverage of politics, especially elections. But how do the polls work? How do we tell the good from the bad? And in light of recent polling disasters, can we trust them at all? Polling UnPacked gives us the full story, from the first rudimentary polls in the nineteenth century, through attempts by politicians to ban polling in the twentieth century, to the very latest techniques and controversies from the last few years. Equal parts enlightening and hilarious, the book requires no prior knowledge of polling or statistics to understand. But even hardened pollsters will find much to enjoy, from how polling has been used to help plan military invasions to why an exhausted interviewer was accidentally instrumental in inventing exit polls. Written by a former political pollster and the creator of Britain’s foremost polling-intention database, Polling UnPacked reveals which opinion polls to trust, which to ignore, and which, frankly, to laugh at. It will change the way we see political coverage forever.
Author: Norman Gash Publisher: Faber & Faber ISBN: 0571302904 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 410
Book Description
Politics in the Age of Peel, first published in 1953, is concerned with the ordinary working world of politicians in England during the stormy period between 1830 and 1850: the age of the railway, the Chartists, the Anti-Corn Law League and the Irish famine. Even in the wake of the Great Reform Act of 1832 many corrupt aspects of the old unreformed system of democratic election survived; and politicians had to meet national problems in the teeth of newly clamorous public opinion, while remaining hostage to the representative structure that defined (and limited) their powers. Norman Gash made his professional reputation with this brilliant work, hailed in an unsigned TLS review - which was known to have been written by Sir Lewis Namier - as worthy of 'the warmest acclamation'.
Author: Robert S. Erikson
Author: Robert S. Erikson
Author: John Fund
Author: Nic Cheeseman
Author: John Fund
Author: John Merriman Sims
Author: Jeffrey M. Stonecash
Author: Oregon. Office of the Secretary of State
Author: Jonathan K. Hodge
Author: Mark Pack
Author: Norman Gash