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Author: Laurence Ball Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange rates Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
This paper examines the choice of a monetary-policy rule in a simple macroeconomic model. In a closed economy, the optimal policy is a output and inflation. In an open economy, the optimal rule changes in two ways. First, the policy instrument is a Conditions Index the exchange rate. Second, on the right side of the rule, inflation is replaced by filters out the transitory effects of exchange-rate movements. The model also implies that pure inflation targeting is dangerous in an open economy, because it creates large fluctuations in exchange rates and output. Targeting long-run inflation avoids this problem and produces a close approximation to the optimal instrument rule.
Author: Laurence Ball Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange rates Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
This paper examines the choice of a monetary-policy rule in a simple macroeconomic model. In a closed economy, the optimal policy is a output and inflation. In an open economy, the optimal rule changes in two ways. First, the policy instrument is a Conditions Index the exchange rate. Second, on the right side of the rule, inflation is replaced by filters out the transitory effects of exchange-rate movements. The model also implies that pure inflation targeting is dangerous in an open economy, because it creates large fluctuations in exchange rates and output. Targeting long-run inflation avoids this problem and produces a close approximation to the optimal instrument rule.
Author: John B. Taylor Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226791262 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 460
Book Description
This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
Author: Nicoletta Batini Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The most popular simple rule for the interest rate, due to Taylor, is meant to inform monetary policy in closed economies. On the other hand, its main open-economy alternative, Ball's rule based on a monetary conditions index (MCI), may perform poorly in the face of specific types of exchange rate shocks, and thus cannot offer guidance for the day-to-day conduct of monetary policy. In this paper, a comprehensive set of simple monetary policy rules (including the MCI-based and Taylor versions) is specified and evaluated, all suitable for small open economies in general, and for the United Kingdom in particular. The asymptotic properties of a two-sector open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated on UK data are compared under the different rules. It is found that an inflation-forecast-based rule (IFB), i.e., one that reacts to deviations of expected inflation from target, performs well. Adding a separate response to the level of the real exchange rate (contemporaneous and lagged) appears to reduce the difference in adjustment between output gaps in the two sectors of the economy, but the improvement is only marginal. Importantly, an IFB rule, with or without exchange rate adjustment, appears robust to different shocks, in contrast to naive or Ball's MCI-based rules.
Author: Richard Dennis Publisher: ISBN: Category : Monetary policy Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco presents the full text of an article entitled "Optimal Simple Targeting Rules for Small Open Economies," by Richard Dennis. The article discusses optimal policy rules in a stylized small open economy model under a spectrum of targeting regimes. Optimal simple rules are rules that exploit a reduced information set.
Author: Laurence Ball Publisher: ISBN: Category : Anti-inflationary policies Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
This essay discusses rules for monetary policy in open economies. If policymakers seek to stabilize output and inflation, optimal rules in open economies differ considerably from optimal rules in closed economies. In open economies, stability is best achieved by targeting long-run inflation' a measure of inflation adjusted to remove transitory effects of exchange-rate movements. Stability is also enhanced by adding an exchange-rate term to "Taylor rules" for setting interest rates. Finally, central banks must choose whether their policy instrument is an interest rate or a "monetary conditions index": an average of the interest rate and the exchange rate. The nature of shocks to the exchange rate determines which of these choices keeps output and inflation more stable.
Author: Mr.Eduardo Morón Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451845855 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
One distinguishable characteristic of emerging market economies is that they are not financially robust. These economies are incapable of smoothing out large external shocks, as sudden capital outflows imply large and abrupt swings in the real exchange rate. Using a small open-economy model, this paper examines alternative monetary policy rules for economies with different degrees of liability dollarization. The paper answers the question of how efficient it is to use inflation targeting under high liability dollarization. Our findings suggest that it might be optimal to follow a nonlinear policy rule that defends the real exchange rate in a financially vulnerable economy.
Author: Laurence M. Ball Publisher: ISBN: Category : Anti-inflationary policies Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
This paper asks whether inflation targeting improves economic performance, as measured by the behavior of inflation, output, and interest rates. We compare seven OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting in the early 1990s to thirteen that did not. After the early 90s, performance improved along many dimensions for both the targeting countries and the non-targeters. In some cases the targeters improved by more; for example, average inflation fell by a larger amount. However, these differences are explained by the facts that targeters performed worse than non-targeters before the early 90s, and there is regression to the mean. Once one controls for regression to the mean, there is no evidence that inflation targeting improves performance.
Author: Laurence Ball
Author: Laurence Ball
Author: John B. Taylor
Author: Carlos Balseyro Rodriguez
Author: Nicoletta Batini
Author: Richard Dennis
Author: Richard H. Clarida
Author: Laurence Ball
Author: Mr.Eduardo Morón
Author: Laurence M. Ball
Author: Richard T. Froyen