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Author: Argia M. Sbordone Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Many central banks have come to rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, or DSGE, models to inform their economic outlook and to help formulate their policy strategies. But while their use is familiar to policymakers and academics, these models are typically not well known outside these circles. This article introduces the basic structure, logic, and application of the DSGE framework to a broader public by providing an example of its use in monetary policy analysis. The authors present and estimate a simple New Keynesian DSGE model, highlighting the core features that this basic specification shares with more elaborate versions. They then apply the estimated model to study the sources of the sudden increase in inflation that occurred in the first half of 2004. One important lesson derived from this exercise is that the management of expectations can be a more effective tool for stabilizing inflation than actual movements in the policy rate. This result is consistent with the increasing focus on the pronouncements of central bankers regarding their future actions.
Author: Argia M. Sbordone Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Many central banks have come to rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, or DSGE, models to inform their economic outlook and to help formulate their policy strategies. But while their use is familiar to policymakers and academics, these models are typically not well known outside these circles. This article introduces the basic structure, logic, and application of the DSGE framework to a broader public by providing an example of its use in monetary policy analysis. The authors present and estimate a simple New Keynesian DSGE model, highlighting the core features that this basic specification shares with more elaborate versions. They then apply the estimated model to study the sources of the sudden increase in inflation that occurred in the first half of 2004. One important lesson derived from this exercise is that the management of expectations can be a more effective tool for stabilizing inflation than actual movements in the policy rate. This result is consistent with the increasing focus on the pronouncements of central bankers regarding their future actions.
Author: Edward P. Herbst Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691161089 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 295
Book Description
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.
Author: Marco Del Negro Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
The paper proposes a novel method for conducting policy analysis with potentially misspecified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and applies it to a New Keynesian DSGE model along the lines of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (JPE2005) and Smets and Wouters (JEEA2003). We first quantify the degree of model misspecification and then illustrate its implications for the performance of different interest-rate feedback rules. We find that many of the prescriptions derived from the DSGE model are robust to model misspecification.
Author: Nathan Balke Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing ISBN: 1781903069 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 480
Book Description
This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy
Author: Lawrence J. Christiano Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages : 74
Book Description
Monetary DSGE models are widely used because they fit the data well and they can be used to address important monetary policy questions. We provide a selective review of these developments. Policy analysis with DSGE models requires using data to assign numerical values to model parameters. The chapter describes and implements Bayesian moment matching and impulse response matching procedures for this purpose.
Author: Marco Del Negro Publisher: ISBN: Category : Equilibrium (Economics) Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
Policy analysis with potentially misspecified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models faces two challenges: estimation of parameters that are relevant for policy trade-offs and treatment of estimated deviations from the cross-equation restrictions. This paper develops and explores policy analysis approaches that are either based on a generalized shock structure for the DSGE model or the explicit modelling of deviations from cross-equation restrictions. Using post-1982 U.S. data we first quantify the degree of misspecification in a state-of-the-art DSGE model and then document the performance of different interest-rate feedback rules. We find that many of the policy prescriptions derived from the benchmark DSGE model are robust to the various treatments of misspecifications considered in this paper, but that quantitatively the cost of deviating from such prescriptions varies substantially.
Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475524986 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 59
Book Description
This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy. But excessively large and risky loans can impair balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of financial cycles. A companion paper studies the simulation properties of MAPMOD.
Author: Harold L. Cole Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0190076062 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 277
Book Description
In Monetary and Fiscal Policy Through a DSGE Lens, Harold L. Cole develops and extends versions of a classic quantitative model of economic growth to take on a wide range of topics in monetary and fiscal policy. Bridging the gap between current undergraduate and graduate texts in the field, this comprehensive book covers the basic elements of advanced macroeconomics and equips readers to understand the debate on key policy questions. By using the simple DSGE, or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, framework to build a series of quantitative models, the book combines a gradual introduction to advanced analytic methods with computer programming and quantitative policy analysis. In a clear discussion of the sophisticated interaction between theory and data, Cole explains how to gauge how well a model captures key elements in the data and how to reverse engineer a model to data. The book covers costs of inflation, optimal monetary policy, the impact of labor and capital taxes, and optimal fiscal policy. It systematically discusses technical material including the new Keynesian liquidity shock models, standard analytic methods, such as Lagrangian methods, and computational methods using Matlab and Python. With a strong computational emphasis, the volume teaches how to program up and solve systems of non-linear equations and develop models to study the macroeconomy. Knowing how to deeply understand and analyze models and develop computational code to evaluate the implications of those models is essential for students of macroeconomics. This book connects the standard undergraduate material to the elaborate models of advanced graduate courses with systematic and logical coverage of the basics of advanced modern macroeconomics.
Author: Argia M. Sbordone
Author: Argia M. Sbordone
Author: Edward P. Herbst
Author: Marco Del Negro
Author: Nathan Balke
Author: Benjamin M. Friedman
Author: Dario Caldara
Author: Lawrence J. Christiano
Author: Marco Del Negro
Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes
Author: Harold L. Cole