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Author: Diana Noonan Publisher: Teacher Created Materials ISBN: 9780743909068 Category : Juvenile Nonfiction Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
Provides simple text, illustrations, and problems involving estimation to teach young readers how scientists use it to predict and prepare for natural disasters.
Author: Diana Noonan Publisher: Teacher Created Materials ISBN: 9780743909068 Category : Juvenile Nonfiction Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
Provides simple text, illustrations, and problems involving estimation to teach young readers how scientists use it to predict and prepare for natural disasters.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 1400888816 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 368
Book Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author: William Poundstone Publisher: Little, Brown Spark ISBN: 0316228087 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 266
Book Description
A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.
Author: Torleif Halkjelsvik Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319749536 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 117
Book Description
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: Crown ISBN: 080413670X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Diana Noonan Publisher: Teacher Created Materials ISBN: Category : Juvenile Nonfiction Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
There are many different jobs in which people make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past. Volcanologists and seismologists use data collection to make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past! With vibrant photos, math charts and diagrams, grade-appropriate text, and informational text features to help navigate the text, students will learn practical, real-world applications of math skills as they learn how to estimate and build their STEM skills.
Author: Patrick King Publisher: PKCS Media ISBN: Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 144
Book Description
Speed read people, decipher body language, detect lies, and understand human nature. Is it possible to analyze people without them saying a word? Yes, it is. Learn how to become a “mind reader” and forge deep connections. How to get inside people’s heads without them knowing. Read People Like a Book isn’t a normal book on body language of facial expressions. Yes, it includes all of those things, as well as new techniques on how to truly detect lies in your everyday life, but this book is more about understanding human psychology and nature. We are who we are because of our experiences and pasts, and this guides our habits and behaviors more than anything else. Parts of this book read like the most interesting and applicable psychology textbook you’ve ever read. Take a look inside yourself and others! Understand the subtle signals that you are sending out and increase your emotional intelligence. Patrick King is an internationally bestselling author and social skills coach. His writing draws of a variety of sources, from scientific research, academic experience, coaching, and real life experience. Learn the keys to influencing and persuading others. •What people’s limbs can tell us about their emotions. •Why lie detecting isn’t so reliable when ignoring context. •Diagnosing personality as a means to understanding motivation. •Deducing the most with the least amount of information. •Exactly the kinds of eye contact to use and avoid Find shortcuts to connect quickly and deeply with strangers. The art of reading and analyzing people is truly the art of understanding human nature. Consider it like a cheat code that will allow you to see through people’s actions and words. Decode people’s thoughts and intentions, and you can go in any direction you want with them.
Author: Morgan Robertson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 472
Book Description
Book Excerpt: there rang out overhead a startling cry from the crow's-nest: "Something ahead, sir--can't make it out."The first officer sprang to the engine-room telegraph and grasped the lever. "Sing out what you see," he roared."Hard aport, sir--ship on the starboard tack--dead ahead," came the cry."Port your wheel--hard over," repeated the first officer to the quartermaster at the helm--who answered and obeyed. Nothing as yet could be seen from the bridge. The powerful steering-engine in the stern ground the rudder over; but before three degrees on the compass card were traversed by the lubber's-point, a seeming thickening of the darkness and fog ahead resolved itself into the square sails of a deep-laden ship, crossing the Titan's bow, not half her length away."H--l and d--" growled the first officer. "Steady on your course, quartermaster," he shouted. "Stand from under on deck." He turned a lever which closed compartments, pushed a button marked--"Captain's Room," and crRead Mor
Author: Diana Noonan
Author: Diana Noonan
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: William Poundstone
Author: Torleif Halkjelsvik
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: Diana Noonan
Author: Diana Noonan
Author: Patrick King
Author: Morgan Robertson
Author: Peter Mark Roget