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Author: Giovanni Petris Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 0387772383 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 258
Book Description
State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Author: Giovanni Petris Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 0387772383 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 258
Book Description
State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Author: Lutz Kilian Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1107196574 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 757
Book Description
This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139454730 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 351
Book Description
Time series econometrics is a rapidly evolving field. Particularly, the cointegration revolution has had a substantial impact on applied analysis. Hence, no textbook has managed to cover the full range of methods in current use and explain how to proceed in applied domains. This gap in the literature motivates the present volume. The methods are sketched out, reminding the reader of the ideas underlying them and giving sufficient background for empirical work. The treatment can also be used as a textbook for a course on applied time series econometrics. Topics include: unit root and cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, conditional heteroskedasticity and nonlinear and nonparametric time series models. Crucial to empirical work is the software that is available for analysis. New methodology is typically only gradually incorporated into existing software packages. Therefore a flexible Java interface has been created, allowing readers to replicate the applications and conduct their own analyses.
Author: Timothy G. Gregoire Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1461206995 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 404
Book Description
Correlated data arise in numerous contexts across a wide spectrum of subject-matter disciplines. Modeling such data present special challenges and opportunities that have received increasing scrutiny by the statistical community in recent years. In October 1996 a group of 210 statisticians and other scientists assembled on the small island of Nantucket, U. S. A. , to present and discuss new developments relating to Modelling Longitudinal and Spatially Correlated Data: Methods, Applications, and Future Direc tions. Its purpose was to provide a cross-disciplinary forum to explore the commonalities and meaningful differences in the source and treatment of such data. This volume is a compilation of some of the important invited and volunteered presentations made during that conference. The three days and evenings of oral and displayed presentations were arranged into six broad thematic areas. The session themes, the invited speakers and the topics they addressed were as follows: • Generalized Linear Models: Peter McCullagh-"Residual Likelihood in Linear and Generalized Linear Models" • Longitudinal Data Analysis: Nan Laird-"Using the General Linear Mixed Model to Analyze Unbalanced Repeated Measures and Longi tudinal Data" • Spatio---Temporal Processes: David R. Brillinger-"Statistical Analy sis of the Tracks of Moving Particles" • Spatial Data Analysis: Noel A. Cressie-"Statistical Models for Lat tice Data" • Modelling Messy Data: Raymond J. Carroll-"Some Results on Gen eralized Linear Mixed Models with Measurement Error in Covariates" • Future Directions: Peter J.
Author: Andrew C. Harvey Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521405737 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 574
Book Description
A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Author: Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118952960 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 912
Book Description
The essential reference for human development theory, updated and reconceptualized The Handbook of Child Psychology and Developmental Science, a four-volume reference, is the field-defining work to which all others are compared. First published in 1946, and now in its Seventh Edition, the Handbook has long been considered the definitive guide to the field of developmental science. Volume 1, Theory and Method, presents a rich mix of classic and contemporary theoretical perspectives, but the dominant views throughout are marked by an emphasis on the dynamic interplay of all facets of the developmental system across the life span, incorporating the range of biological, cognitive, emotional, social, cultural, and ecological levels of analysis. Examples of the theoretical approaches discussed in the volume include those pertinent to human evolution, self regulation, the development of dynamic skills, and positive youth development. The research, methodological, and applied implications of the theoretical models discussed in the volume are presented. Understand the contributions of biology, person, and context to development within the embodied ecological system Discover the relations among individual, the social world, culture, and history that constitute human development Examine the methods of dynamic, developmental research Learn person-oriented methodological approaches to assessing developmental change The scholarship within this volume and, as well, across the four volumes of this edition, illustrate that developmental science is in the midst of a very exciting period. There is a paradigm shift that involves increasingly greater understanding of how to describe, explain, and optimize the course of human life for diverse individuals living within diverse contexts. This Handbook is the definitive reference for educators, policy-makers, researchers, students, and practitioners in human development, psychology, sociology, anthropology, and neuroscience.
Author: Francis X. Diebold Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0199338329 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 285
Book Description
Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.
Author: Walter Krämer Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642484123 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 134
Book Description
Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t
Author: Giovanni Petris
Author: Giovanni Petris
Author: Lutz Kilian
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Author: Timothy G. Gregoire
Author: Truman F. Bewley
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Author: 
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Author: Walter Krämer