Author: Charles F. RobertsPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Probability forecasts (Meteorology)
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
On the Use of Probability Statements in Weather Forecasts
Author: Charles F. RobertsPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Probability forecasts (Meteorology)
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
Compendium of Meteorology
Author: Thomas F MaloneWeather Forecasting for Aeronautics
Author: Joseph J. GeorgePublisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483258602
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 684
Book Description
Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics provides forecasters and pilots wanting to study more about the art and science of predicting weather with the essential aids and methods for making practical application of their knowledge of the fundamentals of the science of meteorology. The publication first underscores the forecast problem, construction of the prognostic pressure chart, and prediction of cyclogenesis. Discussions focus on forecasting information concerning new cyclogenesis, making operational and planning forecasts, cyclogenesis off the east coast of Asia, application of weather forecasts to operational problems, and cyclogenesis in the eastern United States. The text then ponders on forecasting the movement, deepening, and filling of cyclones and movement of anticyclones in North America. The manuscript takes a look at the movement of cold lows at the 500-millibar level and their influence on surface lows, displacement of surface cold fronts, and warm frontal analysis and movement. Topics include movement of warm fronts, identification and location of warm fronts, East Coast wedge type, and warm frontogenesis. The text then examines the movement of tropical cyclones, prediction of very low ceiling and fogs, and prediction of severe weather. The publication is a dependable reference for weather forecasters and pilots.
Monthly Weather Review
Author: Probability Forecasting
Author: Lawrence Ambrose HughesPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Precipitation forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 96
Book Description
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and MedicinePublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187
Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Introduction to Statistical Modelling and Inference
Author: Murray AitkinPublisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 100064457X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 391
Book Description
The complexity of large-scale data sets (“Big Data”) has stimulated the development of advanced computational methods for analysing them. There are two different kinds of methods to aid this. The model-based method uses probability models and likelihood and Bayesian theory, while the model-free method does not require a probability model, likelihood or Bayesian theory. These two approaches are based on different philosophical principles of probability theory, espoused by the famous statisticians Ronald Fisher and Jerzy Neyman. Introduction to Statistical Modelling and Inference covers simple experimental and survey designs, and probability models up to and including generalised linear (regression) models and some extensions of these, including finite mixtures. A wide range of examples from different application fields are also discussed and analysed. No special software is used, beyond that needed for maximum likelihood analysis of generalised linear models. Students are expected to have a basic mathematical background in algebra, coordinate geometry and calculus. Features • Probability models are developed from the shape of the sample empirical cumulative distribution function (cdf) or a transformation of it. • Bounds for the value of the population cumulative distribution function are obtained from the Beta distribution at each point of the empirical cdf. • Bayes’s theorem is developed from the properties of the screening test for a rare condition. • The multinomial distribution provides an always-true model for any randomly sampled data. • The model-free bootstrap method for finding the precision of a sample estimate has a model-based parallel – the Bayesian bootstrap – based on the always-true multinomial distribution. • The Bayesian posterior distributions of model parameters can be obtained from the maximum likelihood analysis of the model. This book is aimed at students in a wide range of disciplines including Data Science. The book is based on the model-based theory, used widely by scientists in many fields, and compares it, in less detail, with the model-free theory, popular in computer science, machine learning and official survey analysis. The development of the model-based theory is accelerated by recent developments in Bayesian analysis.
Uses and Abuses of Forecasting
Author: Tom WhistonPublisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349044865
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 371
Book Description
Fire Control Notes
Author: Understanding Uncertainty
Author: Dennis V. LindleyPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470055472
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 268
Book Description
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.