On the Optimality of Expert-adjusted Forecasts PDF Download

Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 32

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Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Altruism
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107081599
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 145

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Book Description
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.

Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
ISBN: 0195398645
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732

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Book Description
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Author: Marcel Boumans
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0199388288
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 213

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Book Description
Social science experiments often cannot be analyzed under controlled conditions, as many take place outside a laboratory. None-the-less, measurement provides scientists with a sound basis for collecting and analyzing the results of field research. Science Outside the Laboratory examines the relationship between measurement theory and field investigations through the philosophy of science.

Author: Matthias Seifert
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031300858
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 321

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Book Description
This book highlights research on the behavioral biases affecting judgmental accuracy in judgmental forecasting and showcases the state-of-the-art in judgment-based predictive analytics. In recent years, technological advancements have made it possible to use predictive analytics to exploit highly complex (big) data resources. Consequently, modern forecasting methodologies are based on sophisticated algorithms from the domain of machine learning and deep learning. However, research shows that in the majority of industry contexts, human judgment remains an indispensable component of the managerial forecasting process. This book discusses ways in which decision-makers can address human behavioral issues in judgmental forecasting. The book begins by introducing readers to the notion of human-machine interactions. This includes a look at the necessity of managerial judgment in situations where organizations commonly have algorithmic decision support models at their disposal. The remainder of the book is divided into three parts, with Part I focusing on the role of individual-level judgment in the design and utilization of algorithmic models. The respective chapters cover individual-level biases such as algorithm aversion, model selection criteria, model-judgment aggregation issues and implications for behavioral change. In turn, Part II addresses the role of collective judgments in predictive analytics. The chapters focus on issues related to talent spotting, performance-weighted aggregation, and the wisdom of timely crowds. Part III concludes the book by shedding light on the importance of contextual factors as critical determinants of forecasting performance. Its chapters discuss the usefulness of scenario analysis, the role of external factors in time series forecasting and introduce the idea of mindful organizing as an approach to creating more sustainable forecasting practices in organizations.

Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009428047
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 309

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Book Description
Econometricians make choices on data, models, and estimation routines. Using various examples, this book shows the consequences of choices.

Author: Rianne Legerstee
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789036102919
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 149

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Book Description
This thesis is about forecasting situations which involve econometric models and expert intuition. The first three chapters are about what it is that experts do when they adjust statistical model forecasts and what might improve that adjustment behavior. It is investigated how expert forecasts are related to model forecasts, how this potential relation is influenced by other factors and how it influences forecast accuracy, how feedback influences forecasting behavior and accuracy and which loss function is associated with experts' forecasts. The final chapter focuses on how to make use in an optimal way of multiple forecasts produced by multiple experts for one and the same event. It is found that potential disagreement amongst forecasters can have predictive value, especially when used in Markov regime-switching models.

Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691175977
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 367

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Book Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Author: Suresh P. Sethi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1447123212
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 387

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Book Description
The Spanish Conference of Industrial Engineering /Ingeniería de Organización Industrial (CIO) is an annual meeting promoted by Asociación para el Desarrollo de la Ingeniería de Organización/ Industrial Engineers Association (ADINGOR). The aim of CIO is to establish a forum for the open and free exchange of ideas, opinions and academic experiences about research, technology transfer or successful business experiences in the field of Industrial Engineering. The Scientific Committee is composed by 68 international referees and we foresee the attendance of some 200 people from more than 15 countries and following the rotation of venue and organization between various Spanish universities, the 2011 Conference will be the fifteenth National Conference and the fifth International Conference in Cartagena. During three days the 2011 Conference will include the participation of European and other foreign countries researchers and practitioners that will presenting communications, reproduced in this volume, on a range of topics including: Production and Operations Business Management Supply Chain Management Economic environment Technological and Organizational Innovation and Management and Innovation in Education The Conference on Industrial Engineering (CIO) and its proceedings are an excellent platform for the dissemination of the outputs of the scientific projects developed in the frame of the European, national or regional Research and Development plans.