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Author: Jan C. Ruelke Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper applies nonlinear econometric models to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange rate policy. First, results from a STARTZ model are provided revealing nonlinear mean reversion of the Australian dollar exchange rate in the sense that mean reversion increases with the degree of exchange rate misalignment. Second, a STR-GARCH model suggests that RBA interventions account for this result by strengthening foreign exchange traders' confidence in fundamental analysis. This in line with the so-called coordination channel of intervention effectiveness.
Author: Jan C. Ruelke Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper applies nonlinear econometric models to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange rate policy. First, results from a STARTZ model are provided revealing nonlinear mean reversion of the Australian dollar exchange rate in the sense that mean reversion increases with the degree of exchange rate misalignment. Second, a STR-GARCH model suggests that RBA interventions account for this result by strengthening foreign exchange traders' confidence in fundamental analysis. This in line with the so-called coordination channel of intervention effectiveness.
Author: Ms.Hali J. Edison Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451852290 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
Since the Australian dollar was floated in December 1983, the Australian central bank (Reserve Bank of Australia) has actively intervened in the foreign exchange market. Using daily exchange rate and official intervention data from January 1984 to December 2001, this paper examines what effects, if any, foreign exchange operations by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have had on the level and volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate. First, using an event study we evaluate the effectiveness of intervention by examining its direct effect on the level of the exchange rate. We find that over the period 1997-2001, the RBA has had some success in its intervention operations, by moderating the depreciating tendency of the Australian dollar. Second, we investigate the effects of RBA intervention policies on exchange rate volatility over the floating rate period. Our results indicate that intervention operations tend to be associated with an increase in exchange rate volatility, which suggests that official intervention may have added to market uncertainty. Overall, the effects of RBA intervention are quite modest on both the level and the volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate.
Author: Mark P. Taylor Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention has been proposed as a means by which foreign exchange market intervention may be effective when misalignments of the exchange rate are generated by non-fundamental influences and the return to equilibrium is hampered by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders. Under these circumstances central bank intervention may act as a coordinating signal, encouraging stabilizing speculators to re-enter the market. This paper examines the effectiveness of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interventions via the coordination channel. Using daily exchange rates from January 1984 to March 2005, we provide evidence that Australian intervention policy was effective via the coordination channel, thereby providing a rationale for the RBA's ongoing intervention policy.
Author: Ahdi Noomen Ajmi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
In this paper, we investigate the effect of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the $US/$A volatility in the period 1983-1995, which can be broken into four distinct phases. Equally, we investigate the changing effectiveness of daily intervention into various separate components. We test the existence of a long memory behaviour i.e. a finite persistence of volatility. To this aim, we rely on a new mesure of volatility implied by the FIGARCH model that outperforms the traditionnally used GARCH one. We find contemporaneous positive correlation between the direction of intervention and the conditional mean and variance of exchange rate returns. The FIGARCH model implies a long memory behaviour.
Author: Suk-Joong Kim Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
We investigate the effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's foreign exchange interventions on the USD/AUD market and 90-day and 10-year interest rate futures markets for the period July 1986 to December 2003. Using recently released revised and updated intervention data, we investigate contemporaneous and disaggregated intervention influences and find significant evidence for i) intervention effectiveness in moderating the contemporaneous exchange rate movements especially if interventions were cumulative and large, ii) exchange rate volatility reducing effect with a day's lag, iii) undesirable interest rate movements following interventions in some periods compromising monetary policy effectiveness, and iv) a volatility reducing effect of cumulative interventions in the 90-day rate, and a volatility increasing effect of large interventions in both the 90-day and 10-year rate futures. These findings are a unique and significant contribution to the prevailing literature as they demonstrate that the RBA's interventions matter not only for the foreign exchange market but also for the debt markets.
Author: Romain Lafarguette Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513569406 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Author: Jan C. Ruelke
Author: Jan C. Ruelke
Author: Stefan Reitz
Author: Suk-Joong Kim
Author: Ms.Hali J. Edison
Author: Mark P. Taylor
Author: Stephen Grenville
Author: Ahdi Noomen Ajmi
Author: Suk-Joong Kim
Author: Romain Lafarguette